Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Macro changing in favor of the Gold Stocks Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process
The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).
While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Gold and Silver Believed To Be Close to Major Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
On the 1-year chart for gold shown below, we can see precisely why it has been in a quite severe downtrend from its peak last March. It is because the dollar and interest rates, shown at the top and bottom of the chart, have been in strong uptrends during this period.
A very important point to note is that while gold has dropped about $400 from its March peak, in real terms, this decline is much more serious because of the robust inflation during this period.
So if the Fed does pivot soon, that is to say, it stops raising rates and starts lowering them, or other Central Banks start raising rates, thus reducing the dollar’s appeal.
It will mean a reversal to the downside in the dollar and to the upside in gold and commodities and risk-on assets generally, and as we saw on Friday 21st, even talk of a pivot is enough to generate a recovery.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Why Gold’s Losing Streak May Soon Turn Around / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The gold market enters trading for the month of November on a losing streak. Can bulls finally turn things around?
Their first test will be to defend the line of support established from the September and October lows. Although the gold market registered a seventh consecutive monthly decline in October – marking its worst string of monthly losses in 50 years – daily prices didn't actually break down to new lows for the year.
Despite another losing month, downside selling pressure appears to be fizzling out. Gold prices have been consolidating within a narrowing range over the past several weeks and have even popped above the downtrend line today (November 1).
Monday, October 31, 2022
Could a Red Wave Cool Off the Retail Bullion Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Americans will vote in the midterm elections next Tuesday. The latest polling suggests that a “red wave” is building, and Republicans may win the majority both in the House and the Senate. The election results will have implications for all markets – and that includes precious metals.
Mass psychology is one factor. Confidence in U.S. institutions has been in decline for several decades. However, when we see a marginal restoration of confidence, it can impact physical market demand for bullion.
Accordingly, should Republicans win big next week, red-hot bullion demand could cool off for a period of time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 30, 2022
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have been battered over this past half-year, bludgeoned relentlessly lower with gold. Heavy gold-futures selling fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in a mania has slammed the yellow metal. Gold’s normal seasonal trends have been overpowered by speculators’ leveraged gold-futures dumping. But with their selling capital firepower exhausted, gold’s usual winter rally should roar back.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 30, 2022
Is $600 Gold Price Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD PRICE DECLINE – $600 POSSIBLE?
Over the past couple of months, since the posting of my article Gold Charts – $1450 the price of gold has done nothing to indicate a change in direction or reversal of any consequence.
Below is the latest chart (source) of physical gold prices showing monthly average closing prices since the peak in July 2020…
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 23, 2022
WTI Crude Oil Is Stuck in a Choppy Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices ended the week caught between the headwinds of a tighter global supply and a lacklustre economic outlook eroding consumers' purchasing power.
Macroeconomics
On Thursday, the greenback took off over the value of 150 Japanese yen – a symbolic price mark – for the first time since the 1990s.
Saturday, October 22, 2022
Euphoric US Dollar Vexing Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The euphoric US dollar’s epic parabolic surge over this past half-year continues to sorely vex gold. The dollar’s vertical march to extreme secular highs spawned heavy gold-futures selling, slamming gold. The resulting lower gold prices have scared away investors, leaving gold languishing near deep lows despite an inflation super-spike raging. This fundamentally-absurd market anomaly can’t last, and is overdue to reverse.
Gold is behaving terribly this year, plunging 17.9% between mid-April to late September! That has left even hardened contrarian traders disheartened, increasingly wondering if gold is dead. Speculators and investors alike want nothing to do with history’s ultimate inflation hedge, even with headline Consumer-Price-Index inflation averaging stunning 8.5% year-over-year gains over the last six months. Gold looks broken.
While gold was being slammed lower by relentless gold-futures dumping, the CPI peaked in June at a cycle high up 9.1% YoY. That proved its hottest read since way back in November 1981! So we are literally suffering through a brutal inflation super-spike today, the first since the 1970s. The Fed’s extreme money printing after March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic has come home to roost, driving up prices.
Gold skyrocketed during those 1970s inflation super-spikes, as it should. The first was born in June 1972 at a CPI trough up 2.7% YoY, then peaked 30 months later in December 1974 with the CPI soaring 12.3% YoY. The monthly-average gold prices during that span soared 196.6% higher! Gold’s supply growth is heavily constrained by mining limitations, so it is bid way up during times of serious currency debasement.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 15, 2022
The Fed’s Challenge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As the economic slowdown deepens, the Fed’s challenges grow larger. It increases the risk of policy mistakes that could benefit gold.Inflation Is Still a Challenge
It was a tough year for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank’s inflation forecasts were embarrassing. In December 2021, it projected the PCEPI inflation rate at 2.6%, while it soared to 6.8% through June. The Fed disclosed $300 billion in unrealized losses on its assets as of the end of March, showing the negative impact of rising interest rates on the market value of the Fed’s balance sheet (that likely only intensified since Q1). There was a trading scandal with two top officials resigning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
How Will the New CPI Data Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Fresh inflation data is to be released tomorrow. While it may trigger daily fluctuations, the precious metals’ medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.
Stuck in Reverse
While risk assets attempted a daily rally on Oct. 11, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoiled the party with his hawkish warning to U.K. pension funds. After restarting QE to curb the rapid rise in U.K. interest rates, he said:
“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that [intervention] is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”
Thus, while gold bucked the trend, it was another down day for silver, mining stocks and the S&P 500. Furthermore, with Fed officials undeterred by the financial market volatility, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Oct. 11:
Monday, October 10, 2022
Gold Is Below $1,700 Again. Will It Repeat Its Fall to $1400? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The current situation of gold and its behavior in 2013 share many bearish analogies. Is the yellow metal only halfway through its massive collapse?
A Decade Ago
After we posted last week’s gold price forecast, gold, silver, and mining stocks declined in tune with the analysis. Is the rally over?
Let’s start by taking a closer look at gold.
Saturday, October 08, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Investing At Bear Market Lows / Commodities / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I made lots of small across the board buys earlier in the the week with my main focus on Nvidia, HPQ, Logitec and Arrow, and 1 big buy - Samsung. Current state of my portfolio is 71% invested, 29% cash. Remember as stock prices go up so does the percent invested, similarly when stock prices fall the percent invested naturally drops.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 08, 2022
Silver – Dead In The Water for 40 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER IS DEAD IN THE WATER…
…and cheap; it’s a bargain! Buy it now before it goes to – $500? Seriously? One thing for sure; silver is cheaper now than it was the last time we heard such exuberant (irrational?) calls for action.
In fact, the lower the silver price goes, the more fervent are the claims and projections for ever higher and seemingly ridiculous prices. After more than forty years of calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver – Nothing Has Changed) now we are being treated to fantasy projections of $500 oz.
Coupled with the price prediction of $500 for silver is a prediction for a crash in the U.S. dollar – by 2023.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 02, 2022
The Queen Died, but King Dollar Lives On / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Queen Elizabeth II died, but King Dollar is the strongest in decades. Gold doesn’t like it.To say that gold has been struggling this year is an understatement. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal declined from above $2,000 to below $1,700 (as of September 20). That slide occurred during the highest inflation since the great stagflation of the 1970s.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 02, 2022
Why Gold? Why now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Richard_Mills
Why should investors even consider taking a position in a gold junior, given gold’s lackluster performance so far this year?
Having scaled 2021 peaks of $1,865 an ounce in November, and $1,903 in June, the gold price burst onto 2022 @ $1,800. By Jan. 19 it was at $1,840. Since then, the precious metal has come under intense selling pressure. A combination of rising government bond yields and a soaring US dollar index are the main bearish elements driving gold (and silver) south. Spot gold year to date is down $124, or 8.4%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 01, 2022
Gold – A Case Of Unrealistic Expectations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD – WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?
Question No. 1. What’s wrong with gold?
Question No. 2. Inflation is roaring and gold is dropping in price. Since gold is an inflation hedge, why isn’t its price going up?
If you need to ask either or both of those questions, then you are likely suffering from a case of unrealistic expectations involving gold and its price behavior.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 26, 2022
Gold Waved the White Flag and Began Its Great Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As predicted, the dollar grows stronger while gold goes in the opposite direction. Can we expect a temporary correction next?
It’s happening! The massive upswing in the USD Index and the slide in the precious metals market are here.
Just like you knew in advance. I’m receiving multiple messages where you’re sharing your gratitude with me, and I’m extremely happy that you’re enjoying the results that you were able to get thanks to my help.
All right, what’s next?
First of all, I would like you to keep perspective.
Friday, September 23, 2022
All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?
In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.
What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.
Thursday, September 22, 2022
Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold
Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
Read full article... Read full article...