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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Big Inflation Will Spur Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold investment demand should be soaring with serious inflation raging, catapulting gold way higher.  Yet recently it has greatly lagged fast-rising general price levels, confounding contrarian investors.  But history argues this anomaly won’t last, that eventually big inflation will spur gold.  Today’s terrible inflation super-spike fueled by extreme Fed money printing is the first since the 1970s, when gold rocketed up by multiples.

The most-widely-followed US inflation gauge is the Consumer Price Index.  While its components and calculation methodologies have been changed countless times, the CPI’s history extends back well over a century to 1913!  For an entire decade prior to April 2021, the monthly headline CPI averaged modest 1.7% year-over-year gains.  That long span didn’t see a single 4%+ print, even with pandemic-lockdown disruptions.

But something changed in April 2021, when the CPI suddenly accelerated up 4.2% YoY.  That proved its hottest read since September 2008, emerging from that year’s brutal stock panic.  The Fed itself blamed that mounting inflation on supply-chain disruptions.  The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary-policy statement released late that month argued “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”

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Commodities

Friday, June 10, 2022

Crude Oil Price Trend Trajectory / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Buoyed by tight world supply and higher demand, Light crude oil prices are expected to reach the first resistance level of $124.50 over the next few weeks. WTI prices are being driven by several factors. First, the summer driving season in the US, and second by the relaxation of China's Covid curbs (Chart 1).

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Commodities

Friday, June 10, 2022

How Will Rising Crude Oil Prices Affect Demand and Gasoline? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

What are the new fundamentals for crude oil to look at this week? Could Asian demand be slowed down by Saudi Arabia raising its prices?

Crude oil prices soared earlier this week after Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it would raise crude oil prices for most regions except the United States. Just days after opening the floodgates a little wider (as announced last week following an OPEC+ meeting), Saudi Arabia wasted no time in raising its official selling price for Asia, its main market. It is worth noting that the country is one of the few OPEC members that has spare oil capacity. Thus, this decision to raise prices happens just when demand, especially in Asia, is increasing.

In the prediction contest, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of a barrel of Brent to $135 by the end of the year.

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Commodities

Monday, June 06, 2022

Understanding Profit Potential In Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

An analysis of any profit potential in gold requires an understanding of gold and its fundamentals. The problem is that most folks do not understand gold or its fundamentals. 

“Most folks” includes investors, traders, speculators, advisors, analysts, marketers, etc.

THERE IS ONLY ONE GOLD FUNDAMENTAL

The single fundamental for gold is that gold is real money. PERIOD. Gold’s value is in its use as money.

Whereas gold is real money, the US dollar and all paper currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e., gold.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 02, 2022

Where Is Gold Price Going From Here? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After briefly reaching highs above $2000, Gold has fallen to $1785 (-14%) following the deep selling in the US major indexes throughout most of April & May 2022.

Interpretation Of The Current Consolidation In Gold

My team and I see the recent lows in Gold as similar to the April/May 2009 consolidation after the Global Financial Crisis. Also similar to the January 2013 consolidation before an extended -34% price decline took place – ending in December 2015.

The primary difference between now and then is that the US Federal Reserve is currently initiating a new round of Quantitative Tightening (QT), raising rates, while battling Inflation. In both the previous examples, the US Federal Reserve was moving aggressively into Quantitative Easing, attempting to aid in the recovery of the US & the global economy.

It seems to me, that the underlying factors driving the price of Gold have drastically changed. All it would take for Gold to break into a new trend, up or down, would be to see some new catalyst or contagion event come to life.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 01, 2022

Gold Fakeout Instead of Breakout: Is the Gold Miners’ Crash Coming? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Some analogies in the gold market that may be a hint for investors can be seen right now. If there's a 2008 rerun, what could that mean in the near term?

The precious metals market declined yesterday, and while the move is still small, it’s nice to see that our short positions in juniors are already profitable.

Something quite interesting happened in their price movement at the beginning of yesterday’s session, and that’s what I’d like to start with today.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Food, a Global Crisis – How bad is it going to get? / Commodities / Food Crisis

By: Richard_Mills

A comparison of this year’s grocery bills to last year’s yields a simple yet terrifying conclusion: food prices are rising at a rate beyond anyone’s imagination.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which tracks the price movements of the most commonly traded and consumed food crops, recently reached its highest on record.

Most point to the exorbitant prices, like with many other commodities (i.e. oil), to the ongoing war in Europe, which has caused major disruptions to the global supply chain. Indeed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year triggered a series of events that blocked off some of the region’s supply routes, taking away a significant portion of the world’s food supply. The result? every category of food we consume — wheat, meat, dairy products, etc. — got more expensive.

FAO economists estimate that Russia and Ukraine together provided around 30% of the global wheat supply and 20% of maize exports over the past three years, representing a significant chunk of the global food supply. It’s been estimated that nearly 25 million tonnes of grain alone have been eliminated from the supply chain since Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports.

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Commodities

Friday, May 27, 2022

Lower Copper price due to Chinese lockdowns is only Temporary / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Copper is one of our most important metals with more than 20 million tonnes consumed each year across a variety of industries, including building construction (wiring & piping,) power generation/ transmission, and electronic product manufacturing. The red metal is also a key component in transportation; electric vehicles use about four times as much copper as regular internal combustion engine vehicles.

A combination of supply disruptions, historically low copper stockpiles and higher energy costs, propelled copper to a new all-time high of $4.94/lb on Friday, March 4. 

Since then, the base metal has lost momentum mostly because of lower demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper end products.

The latest data shows China’s copper imports fell 4% in April, year on year, as the return of covid-19 forced lockdowns of several Chinese cities including Shanghai, hurting manufacturing and consumption.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

After Recent Highs, What’s Next for the Gold Junior Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Signs are pointing to gold’s May rally running out of steam as the USDX reaches its short-term bottom. But how much stamina is left in the yellow metal?

Another day, another higher close in the junior miners. And another day where profits on our long positions in the latter increased. There is a sign that the rally in the precious metals sector is close to being over.

That sign is the situation in the USD Index, and the shape of the gold-USD link.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

While the current pull-back on black gold is fundamentally triggered by different forces, where is the prevailing wind coming from that is pushing prices lower?

On Wednesday, the day after the US Fed’s Chair Powell showed a more hawkish tone, crude oil prices dropped 2.5% following profit-takings on most commodity markets - new fears emerged that a world economic slowdown combined with rising interest rates could negatively impact the global demand. By the way, talking about profit-takings, our subscribers took theirs on Monday within the last phases of the strong rally in crude oil that hit our last projected targets.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The medium-term outlook for the precious metals remains bearish, but does this mean we can’t profit on shorter-term moves? Quite the opposite!
Precious metals declined yesterday, and so did the general stock market. Is the rally already over?

When I wrote about this rally on May 12, which took place at the same time when I took profits from the short positions and entered the long ones, I mentioned that I planned to hold these long positions for a week or two. Since that was exactly a week ago, the question is: is the top already in?

In short, it probably isn’t. As always, it’s useful to check what happened in the past in similar situations to verify whether what we see is normal or some kind of an outlier that cannot be explained by something that has already happened.

Let’s start with a quote from yesterday’s analysis:

Of course, there will be some back-and-forth movement on an intraday basis, but it doesn’t change anything. Junior miners are likely to rally this week nonetheless. And perhaps not longer than that, as the next triangle-vertex-based reversal is just around the corner – on Friday/Monday.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude oil, like most commodities, is not priced as a single data point like a stock. Instead, commodities, like oil, trade via futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or security at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are standardized for quantity and quality specifications to facilitate trading on a futures exchange.

Unlike options, futures contracts do not have a time value component in their pricing. Each futures contract is a standalone contract with its own ending date, supply and demand, and market-determined price for the underlying product. Another key difference between options and futures is that while an option gives the holder a right to buy or sell at a specific price, exercising that right is optional. A futures contract is a legal contract for delivering an underlying physical product or, in some cases, a cash equivalent. Futures contract performance is a legally binding agreement and is not optional.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 12, 2022

The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

By Matthew Cortez, Last month was the 89th anniversary of one of America’s biggest blunders on her descent from honest, sound money into weaponized political money: Executive Order 6102.

Signed on April 5, 1933, U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt required all persons holding more than five ounces of gold to deliver their “gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates, now owned by them to a Federal Reserve Bank, branch or agency, or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System.”

By outlawing the so-called “hoarding” of gold, Roosevelt intended to destroy gold as an everyday currency, transferring the purchasing power of gold to the U.S. government.
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Commodities

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

INFLATION IS KILLING SILVER / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

More than just a few people are buying silver because “it protects them from inflation” –  or something to that effect. Ever wonder if that argument holds up? The chart (source) below indicates otherwise…

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

The Future of the Dollar Seems So Bright It’s Blinding Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While the USDX rushes up without looking back, gold is running... out of power. What could the next dollar highs mean for the precious metals market?

In short, practically everything that I wrote in yesterday’s analysis remains up-to-date. Based on the relative valuations and pre-market price movement, I wrote that junior miners were likely to decline below their rising support line, and I moved the exit price for the current short position in the GDXJ lower (it seems that it will gain even more shortly).

Indeed, the GDXJ fell like a stone in the water, and it pierced through the above-mentioned support line without looking back. Thanks to remaining in the short position, we were able to benefit from the breakdown below the support line.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 07, 2022

Gold and Silver Outperform Stocks and Bonds during Stagflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As turmoil in financial markets unnerves investors, a larger economic crisis may be starting to unfold.

The Federal Reserve’s first steps toward tightening monetary policy are exposing vulnerabilities in the highly leveraged economy. The Fed spent years injecting the economy with artificial stimulus. Now it is trying to take that stimulus away without causing a crash.

On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. That was the central bank’s biggest hike in 22 years.

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Commodities

Monday, May 02, 2022

Gold is following a logical path in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

Reference this article posted on 12.30.21: 2022: The Golden Year

Gold has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected. In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the war, terror and pestilence bull rationales dear gold bugs) and inflation hype, kneejerkers and momos (momentum players) quickly jumped on pushing gold to an overbought high on March 8. The resulting correction is normal and it is healthy. Momos are not allowed to participate in a real gold bull (at least not until later when the bull is obviously blowing off).

As you can see on the chart, gold found support at the first projected level (this chart was used in an NFTRH update on Wednesday) to possibly contain the downside. However, as also noted in the update, better support is below at and around 1834 and the 200 day moving average. Still below short-term resistance, that lower support is still well in play at this time.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Following Twitter, Elon Musk May Next Want to Acquire Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Elon Musk’s $44 billion purchase of Twitter is being hailed as a victory for free speech. Musk vows to make changes to the social media platform that will make it a true “digital town square” where people are free to speak their minds, even if others take offense.

Of course, not everyone is excited about the prospect.

“Biden officials worry Musk will allow Trump to return to Twitter,” CNBC informs us.

Musk, meanwhile, is worried that the Biden administration may launch retaliatory attacks by securities regulators. He is also concerned by government policies that are stoking inflation.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Crude Oil Is Holding Its Breath As China Fears COVID Again / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

While China plans to implement lockdowns for fear of an epidemic, concerns about the coronavirus are taking a toll on the oil market. Will it escalate?

Crude oil prices remained lower on Tuesday, after significant losses suffered the day before. They are still weighed down by fears of a general lockdown in Beijing, the capital of China, as well as in Shanghai, thus risking a demand reduction for black gold.

The concern also affects industrial metals, of which China is a major consumer. They recorded substantial price drops on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Monday. As per the below chart, the LMEX, an index that incorporates the prices of aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc traded on the LME, posted 4,864.9 points on Monday, erasing all its gains from March and April:

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

If Gold Read the Tea Leaves, It Would See the Shape of a Bear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Despite increased war tensions, gold failed to break above $2,000. What’s worse, rising USDX and interest rates are already lurking on the horizon.

The precious metals just performed exactly as they were likely to. Despite the increase in war tensions, PMs and miners reversed instead of rallying, which indicated that the rally has probably run its course. Since the tensions can now (most likely) either decline or stabilize, gold and silver prices will presumably fall right away, or after a while, as the market starts paying attention to gold’s two key fundamental drivers:

  1. the USD Index
  2. the real interest rates.

Both are inversely correlated with the price of gold, and both are on the rise. It’s therefore most likely only a matter of time before gold declines, and the same goes for silver and mining stocks. In fact, silver and mining stocks are likely to fall harder than gold, as they’ve been very weak in recent years anyway. Let’s not forget that while gold moved above its 2011 highs, silver and miners are well below the 50% retracement from their respective 2011 highs.

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