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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Gold And Silver – Newton’s Third Law Is About Ready To (Over) React - Be Prepared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Michael_Noonan

Our clarion call is for the physical market to soon takeover the actual price for buying and selling. When, we do not know? Timing is now less critical than actual possession, from this point forward.

The probability of a new low, in futures, may be 50-50. It was much higher, a month ago. The odds of successfully picking a bottom are remote. Not to pick on Richard Dennis, but he is a poster boy for losing big time when he tried to pick a bottom in sugar, to the extent of decimating one or a few of his funds. How hard could it have been to lose so much money buying sugar when it was under 5 cents, at the time?

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Commodities

Saturday, July 27, 2013

The Chart that Signaled the Bottom in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Some readers may be sick of seeing this chart but I believe there is no more important chart when assessing or describing the current market (in gold stocks). From a weekly price perspective the recent bear market labeled E finished down 65%. It was almost identical in trajectory, time and price to C, the 1968-1970 bear market and fairly close to D, the 1974-1976 bear market. Both of those bear markets were followed by tremendous advances which took the 1960-1980 secular bull market to new all-time highs. Simply put, by itself this almost bulletproof evidence of a major bottom and likelihood of major gains directly ahead.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold Stocks Bull Market Rebirth / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks are actually enjoying a great month, a stark contrast to this year’s brutal death spiral lower.  But after catapulting up by more than a quarter in less than a month, investors are wondering what to do next.  Is it time to cut losses before the catastrophic plunge resumes, or double down on the birth of a major new upleg?  With this sector still wildly oversold and absurdly undervalued, I’m betting on the latter.

Traders viscerally despise precious-metals miners and explorers these days, for good reason.  Year-to-date as of late June, the flagship HUI gold-stock index had plunged an astounding 53.4%!  This was against a backdrop of stellar general-stock performance, where the benchmark S&P 500 surged 12.4%.  Even gold’s rotten year to that point, -26.7%, was great compared to the excruciating gold-stock carnage.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2013

Saving Silver Before the Real Confiscation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The general case for holding silver continues to improve as the MFGlobal and HSBC scandals confirm the absence of any rule of law or justice in the global financial system. The Peregrine Financial fiasco only serves to verify this somewhat jaded viewpoint.

Furthermore, the Cyprus “bail-in” or savings confiscation debacle makes it perfectly clear that keeping more than a small portion of one's assets in the financial system is increasingly unwise and could be subject to greater risks than most investors think.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold, Silver and the Antifragile Concept / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The concept of antifragility comes from Naseem Taleb's book Antifragile. In it, he describes things and processes that thrive on mistakes and volatility.

Basically, an antifragile system is one where error and/or risk is allowed, encouraged and leads to improvement overall.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold Price Retreats to April-Crash Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

The PRICE of gold bullion retreated from an overnight rise to $1340 per ounce in London on Friday morning, trading back down to $1322 – the low hit by the mid-April crash – as the US Dollar ticked higher.

Silver prices slipped back below $20 per ounce – a 33-month low when first breached in June.

Japanese stocks meantime fell hard as the Yen rose on the currency markets, and European equities slipped with commodities.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2013

Buy Silver Now? II / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Investmentscore.com

Are you invested in or looking to buy into the silver market? Back in April we wrote an article illustrating the seasonal trends for the price of silver. At that time we determined that it may make sense to wait for a more favorable time of year to buy new positions. Based on silver performance in past years, would it have made sense to buy in July / August, or would it have made sense to wait for a better buying opportunity? Let’s take a look at some purchases in the bull market at the start of each August to see what would happen to that investment by spring.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2013

Gold and Silver Price Trend Forecast Progress Report / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Peter_Degraaf

This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the US Monetary Base continues to rise exponentially. This is one of five major (along with many minor) central banks that are daily adding to the money supply of the world. This madness is causing investors to hedge against chaos and price inflation. Precious metals will benefit.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why are the Gold and Silver Prices Rising? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Fall in the Prices of Gold & Silver

Gold and silver recently hit their lows -$1,180 for gold and $18.50 for silver--after being hit by tremendous persistent selling from the SPDR gold ETF and then a major, well-engineered bear raid from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase alongside several hedge funds. This entailed the selling of over 1,000 tonnes of physical gold in less than three months. The bear-raid in mid-April involved around 500 tonnes of this. In a market where the net supply is just over 10 tonnes a day, this wave of selling overwhelmed demand, initially and caused the precipitous fall in gold and silver prices.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Attention Gold Bears - Fed to fall Short on Tapering QE-3 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Gary_Dorsch

The value of Gold has fluctuated wildly over the past few years. After rallying for 12-straight years, the yellow metal has tumbled as much as -38% from its all-time high of $1,923 /ounce reached in August ‘11. Gold officially fell into the quagmire of a Bear market on April 12th, and even central bankers were caught off guard. They were net buyers of 535-tons last year, - the most they’ve ever accumulated in any single year. Today, the central banks are among the biggest losers - holding 31,700-tons, or roughly 19% of all the gold mined.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Gold Backed China’s Yuan Set To Become Global Reserve Currency? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,312.00, EUR 994.92 and GBP 857.63 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,340.00, EUR 1,012.31 and GBP 872.40 per ounce.

Gold fell $22.50 or 1.68% yesterday and closed at $1,319.90/oz.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Goldman Sachs' "Warehouse Shuffle" Just Cost You $5 Billion / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: It's just another game for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) - a "warehouse shuffle" that moves aluminum around while the big bank collects rent on the metal.

Although the rent on the stored aluminum - Goldman isn't allowed to actually own the commodity - is just pennies a day, the vast amount of the metal it has stored in its 27 Detroit warehouses and the "warehouse shuffle" strategy that enables it to extend the rental period for months on end adds up.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why Gold Prices Are Rising Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Money_Morning

Tony Daltorio writes: After watching some drastic one-day plunges this year for the yellow metal, investors are wondering why gold prices are rising now– could this be the start of a healthy, prolonged rebound?

On Monday, gold enjoyed its biggest one-day jump in more than a year. It hit a four-week high as gold finally broke through the $1,300 an ounce technical resistance level and finished above $1,335 an ounce.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Comex Gold Explained / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

Miguel Perez-Santalla writes: A primer on how physical gold stocks are held for Comex contracts, and what stock changes mean...

There has been a lot of misinformation recently about Comex warehouse gold stocks.

Most notably, there's confusion about how this year's sharp drop in the quantity of gold bullion held in Comex warehouses might point to some looming shortage of metal to settle gold futures contracts, or even signal an outright default by sellers to buyers.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Gold GLD ETF Reverses as TLT Breaks Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

GLD briefly slipped above its 50-day moving average yesterday, but could not hold it as support. Today is day 26 of the new Master Cycle. The reversal in a minute Wave [iv] makes it extremely left-translated and bearish for several more months.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Silver and Crude Oil Interesting Parallels / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeviantInvestor

Crude

Crude Oil bottomed (weekly data) about 12/25/1998 at $10.75. It rose erratically for several years, hit another low on 8/24/2007 at $68.70, and then rallied dramatically to an all-time high of $147.20 on 7/11/2008. Subsequently, crude collapsed to $35.35 on 12/26/2008.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Did Gold Start to Respond to the U.S. Dollar Price Moves? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday, gold climbed up to over $1,347 per ounce after the U.S. dollar slipped against other currencies. The American currency dropped to a one-month low slightly below 82 after extending a broad decline for a third session.  Investors are probably wondering if  it will drop any further.

The recent price action suggests that market players are still long the dollar, which could weigh on the greenback, said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan for UBS in Tokyo.

What if he is right?  Will the buyers manage to push the USD Index higher? What impact could such action have on the gold’s chart? Could it trigger a correction?

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Gold Price Slips But Up 13 Days Running on "Stop-Loss Fiesta" / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Adrian_Ash

The PRICE OF GOLD fell $10 per ounce from a new 5-week high in London on Wednesday morning, but stood higher for the 13th session running amid what one trading desk called "a stop-loss fiesta".

"There [is] still a lot of short positioning to unwind," says a note from finance and refining group MKS in Geneva, "with very little seen in terms of any pullbacks."

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

China Demand Not Behind Commodities Boom? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Frank_Holmes

There’s no denying China’s massive economic growth over the past decade, as the country recorded an average GDP of more than 10 percent per year. In only seven years, China’s economy doubled; in 13 years, it tripled.

With this incredible expansion, China began to import commodities at an incredible pace. In 2000, the country imported only 70 million tons of iron ore; today, it’s more than 10 times that amount, at 763 million tons. Copper imports increased dramatically too, growing from 1.6 million tons in 2000 to more than 4 million tons per year today, according to BCA Research data.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Gold - 'Never Mind', Quantitative Easing Is A Time Bomb / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Submissions

John Ing writes: "Never mind" was how Gilda Radner's character, Emily Litella ended her rants on Saturday Night Live. Ben Bernanke should have said "never mind" after threatening the Fed might take the punch bowl away. Within days, following a panic in the markets he later recanted fearing that the hangover could be worse. The threat of the end of easy money was enough to knock a third off the gold price including a collapse of $150 in only two trading days in April. The prospect of higher rates caused big losses just after the Dow and Standard & Poors reached new highs. While the Fed's addiction to cheap money eased some of the pain from the financial crises, surprisingly not enough money was printed to sustain global growth. Instead trillions flowed into riskier investments inflating a string of asset bubbles in the financial world, destabilizing normalized markets as investors chased stocks and bonds in the search for higher returns.

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