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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

While the current pull-back on black gold is fundamentally triggered by different forces, where is the prevailing wind coming from that is pushing prices lower?

On Wednesday, the day after the US Fed’s Chair Powell showed a more hawkish tone, crude oil prices dropped 2.5% following profit-takings on most commodity markets - new fears emerged that a world economic slowdown combined with rising interest rates could negatively impact the global demand. By the way, talking about profit-takings, our subscribers took theirs on Monday within the last phases of the strong rally in crude oil that hit our last projected targets.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The medium-term outlook for the precious metals remains bearish, but does this mean we can’t profit on shorter-term moves? Quite the opposite!
Precious metals declined yesterday, and so did the general stock market. Is the rally already over?

When I wrote about this rally on May 12, which took place at the same time when I took profits from the short positions and entered the long ones, I mentioned that I planned to hold these long positions for a week or two. Since that was exactly a week ago, the question is: is the top already in?

In short, it probably isn’t. As always, it’s useful to check what happened in the past in similar situations to verify whether what we see is normal or some kind of an outlier that cannot be explained by something that has already happened.

Let’s start with a quote from yesterday’s analysis:

Of course, there will be some back-and-forth movement on an intraday basis, but it doesn’t change anything. Junior miners are likely to rally this week nonetheless. And perhaps not longer than that, as the next triangle-vertex-based reversal is just around the corner – on Friday/Monday.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Crude oil, like most commodities, is not priced as a single data point like a stock. Instead, commodities, like oil, trade via futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or security at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are standardized for quantity and quality specifications to facilitate trading on a futures exchange.

Unlike options, futures contracts do not have a time value component in their pricing. Each futures contract is a standalone contract with its own ending date, supply and demand, and market-determined price for the underlying product. Another key difference between options and futures is that while an option gives the holder a right to buy or sell at a specific price, exercising that right is optional. A futures contract is a legal contract for delivering an underlying physical product or, in some cases, a cash equivalent. Futures contract performance is a legally binding agreement and is not optional.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 12, 2022

The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

By Matthew Cortez, Last month was the 89th anniversary of one of America’s biggest blunders on her descent from honest, sound money into weaponized political money: Executive Order 6102.

Signed on April 5, 1933, U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt required all persons holding more than five ounces of gold to deliver their “gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates, now owned by them to a Federal Reserve Bank, branch or agency, or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System.”

By outlawing the so-called “hoarding” of gold, Roosevelt intended to destroy gold as an everyday currency, transferring the purchasing power of gold to the U.S. government.
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Commodities

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

INFLATION IS KILLING SILVER / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

More than just a few people are buying silver because “it protects them from inflation” –  or something to that effect. Ever wonder if that argument holds up? The chart (source) below indicates otherwise…

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

The Future of the Dollar Seems So Bright It’s Blinding Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While the USDX rushes up without looking back, gold is running... out of power. What could the next dollar highs mean for the precious metals market?

In short, practically everything that I wrote in yesterday’s analysis remains up-to-date. Based on the relative valuations and pre-market price movement, I wrote that junior miners were likely to decline below their rising support line, and I moved the exit price for the current short position in the GDXJ lower (it seems that it will gain even more shortly).

Indeed, the GDXJ fell like a stone in the water, and it pierced through the above-mentioned support line without looking back. Thanks to remaining in the short position, we were able to benefit from the breakdown below the support line.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 07, 2022

Gold and Silver Outperform Stocks and Bonds during Stagflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As turmoil in financial markets unnerves investors, a larger economic crisis may be starting to unfold.

The Federal Reserve’s first steps toward tightening monetary policy are exposing vulnerabilities in the highly leveraged economy. The Fed spent years injecting the economy with artificial stimulus. Now it is trying to take that stimulus away without causing a crash.

On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. That was the central bank’s biggest hike in 22 years.

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Commodities

Monday, May 02, 2022

Gold is following a logical path in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

Reference this article posted on 12.30.21: 2022: The Golden Year

Gold has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected. In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the war, terror and pestilence bull rationales dear gold bugs) and inflation hype, kneejerkers and momos (momentum players) quickly jumped on pushing gold to an overbought high on March 8. The resulting correction is normal and it is healthy. Momos are not allowed to participate in a real gold bull (at least not until later when the bull is obviously blowing off).

As you can see on the chart, gold found support at the first projected level (this chart was used in an NFTRH update on Wednesday) to possibly contain the downside. However, as also noted in the update, better support is below at and around 1834 and the 200 day moving average. Still below short-term resistance, that lower support is still well in play at this time.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Following Twitter, Elon Musk May Next Want to Acquire Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Elon Musk’s $44 billion purchase of Twitter is being hailed as a victory for free speech. Musk vows to make changes to the social media platform that will make it a true “digital town square” where people are free to speak their minds, even if others take offense.

Of course, not everyone is excited about the prospect.

“Biden officials worry Musk will allow Trump to return to Twitter,” CNBC informs us.

Musk, meanwhile, is worried that the Biden administration may launch retaliatory attacks by securities regulators. He is also concerned by government policies that are stoking inflation.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Crude Oil Is Holding Its Breath As China Fears COVID Again / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

While China plans to implement lockdowns for fear of an epidemic, concerns about the coronavirus are taking a toll on the oil market. Will it escalate?

Crude oil prices remained lower on Tuesday, after significant losses suffered the day before. They are still weighed down by fears of a general lockdown in Beijing, the capital of China, as well as in Shanghai, thus risking a demand reduction for black gold.

The concern also affects industrial metals, of which China is a major consumer. They recorded substantial price drops on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Monday. As per the below chart, the LMEX, an index that incorporates the prices of aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc traded on the LME, posted 4,864.9 points on Monday, erasing all its gains from March and April:

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

If Gold Read the Tea Leaves, It Would See the Shape of a Bear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Despite increased war tensions, gold failed to break above $2,000. What’s worse, rising USDX and interest rates are already lurking on the horizon.

The precious metals just performed exactly as they were likely to. Despite the increase in war tensions, PMs and miners reversed instead of rallying, which indicated that the rally has probably run its course. Since the tensions can now (most likely) either decline or stabilize, gold and silver prices will presumably fall right away, or after a while, as the market starts paying attention to gold’s two key fundamental drivers:

  1. the USD Index
  2. the real interest rates.

Both are inversely correlated with the price of gold, and both are on the rise. It’s therefore most likely only a matter of time before gold declines, and the same goes for silver and mining stocks. In fact, silver and mining stocks are likely to fall harder than gold, as they’ve been very weak in recent years anyway. Let’s not forget that while gold moved above its 2011 highs, silver and miners are well below the 50% retracement from their respective 2011 highs.

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Commodities

Monday, April 18, 2022

Gold Gains In Price Only – Not In Value / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD GAINS IN PRICE ONLY

It has been said that the more things change, the more they remain the same. That is certainly true of gold prices.

Let’s look at the following three charts in succession. Then we’ll talk about them…

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Commodities

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Beating Inflation: Are The Fed’s Dreams Gold’s Worst Nightmare? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While investors remain happy-go-lucky, fundamental data for gold and silver is now worse than in 2021. Is this the last chance to come back to earth?

As another week comes to a close, the winds of change are blowing across the financial markets. However, while many investors and analysts can see only sunny days ahead, fundamental storm clouds should rain on their parade over the medium term, and it’s quite possible that it’s going to happen shortly.

To explain, this week culminated with the USD Index soaring above 100, the U.S. 10-Year real yield hitting a new 2022 high, and Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) hitting its highest level since the global financial crisis (GFC). However, the PMs paid no mind yet. In fact, investors across many asset classes continue to ignore the implications of these developments. So far.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 10, 2022

6 Things You Need To Know Before Investing In Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Steve_Barker

Investing in gold is a smart investment. But why? Gold has been valued for centuries and for good reason! It's rare, durable, and can be used to make jewelry or electronics. Plus, it's not affected by inflation so no matter what happens with the economy it'll always have some value. But before you invest in gold there are a few things you need to know - what type of gold should you buy? How do you store your gold? What if the economy takes another downturn? Learn more here!

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 06, 2022

Gold Begins to Wobble. Is It a Sign of a Greater Fall? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold is still running on the war-fumes, but its last moves bring to mind only bearish associations. Worse yet, a rising dollar appeared on the horizon.

On the technical front, we saw that the junior mining stocks moved higher in the first part of the session, but then declined and ended the day practically unchanged.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 06, 2022

Waiting For GLD To Make New Highs – Gold Rally Is Still Intact / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The calm of the last 3-weeks has resulted in a risk-on environment. This, in turn, has led to a nice recovery rally in stocks. For the time being, volatility has subsided. However, we believe there are many underlying market risks that can still resurface without any warning.

From late 2015 to August 2020, the price of gold doubled, going from approximately $1040 to $2080. Gold then experienced a profit-taking $400 pullback. Gold’s rally over the past 12-months failed to break through its $2080 price level. After retreating back to $200, gold seems to have found support at the $1900 level.

In reviewing the following spot gold chart, it appears we have broken out of an accumulation phase and seem to be preparing to move above the $2080 high.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 05, 2022

Problem With Predictions For $20K Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

PREDICTIONS FOR $20K GOLD

Gold at $20,000 is the latest price prediction from a high profile analyst. The article I read  makes a strong case for how the gold price could go to $20,000 oz. if the US dollar loses ninety percent of its current value.

That part of the explanation is correct. And it is what I have been saying in my articles over and over again; namely, a higher gold price reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar that has already occurred – nothing more, nothing else. 

Since the origin (1913) of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has lost ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. It takes one hundred dollars today to buy a similar amount of goods and services compared to what one dollar would buy a century ago.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 03, 2022

Silver Mining Stocks Q4’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have rallied in recent months, but are still underperforming gold stocks.  Silver lagging gold is mostly responsible, driven by big stock-market down days dampening enthusiasm for speculation.  But silver will ultimately mirror and amplify gold’s bull upleg, fueling strong leveraged gains in its miners’ stocks.  Their just-finishing Q4’21 earnings season reveals they are faring well fundamentally.

With the subsequent Q1’22 ended, looking at the prior quarter’s operational and financial reports seems dated.  But because most companies run on calendar years, the Q4 reporting deadlines are extended.  In the US companies don’t have to report full-year 10-K results until 60 days after quarter-ends, compared to 40 days for 10-Q quarterlies.  In Canada, the epicenter of the silver-mining universe, year-ends extend to 90 days!

Since many of the major silver miners have primary stock listings in that Great White North, late March is about the earliest enough of them have reported to analyze their collective Q4 results.  Soon after each quarterly earnings season, I dig into the latest reports from the top-15 component companies of the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.  Despite just $1.1b in net assets, SIL remains the leading ETF in this small sector.

SIL’s lackluster performance recently reflects the ongoing apathy plaguing silver stocks.  Between late January to early March, SIL rallied a solid 18.3%.  But that proved poor relatively, since silver marched 17.7% higher in roughly that same span.  If silver miners’ stocks can’t leverage their metal’s upside, they aren’t worth the sizable additional risks they bear compared to silver.  They must double to triple silver’s gains.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 03, 2022

Gold At $2000 Or $600? No Difference / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD AT $2000 

Gold flirted briefly with the $2000 number last month. At $2043 oz., it was several dollars shy from matching its peak price eighteen months earlier at $2058 oz.

With the current gold price at $1958 oz., the $2000 number is the sweet midpoint of that range. It is a nice round number and seems to be the price most gold traders and investors are focusing on at this time.

It is probably a good idea, therefore, to see if the $2k gold price holds any special significance other than what most in the gold community are thinking about.

And it does.

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Commodities

Friday, April 01, 2022

4 Scenarios for BIG Moves in Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

World events are driving a volatile and potentially pivotal environment ahead for investors. Huge swings in financial markets are likely still to come.

Direction, magnitude, and timing are difficult to predict. But precious metals bulls are eying massive upside potential for gold and silver as war and inflation stoke safe-haven buying.

What follows are four major macro scenarios that could impact metals markets in a big way in the months ahead.

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