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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Waiting On Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Expectations still abound for the long-awaited, vertical leap in silver prices.  We are told it is inevitable; and that it is supported by solid fundamentals. Those fundamentals include supply deficits, a return to the 16 to 1 gold-silver ratio, increasing monetary demand for silver, etc.

However, an examination of those fundamentals reveals a different picture. That picture is inconsistent with the call for higher silver prices.

SILVER SUPPLY & DEMAND, RATIOS

The supply deficits (gaps in consumption over production) have been talked about for decades.  In the 1960s and 1970s they were the principal fundamental justification in the case for higher silver prices.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Lorimer_Wilson

The U.S. dollar, as the world reserve currency, is still the driver of silver, gold, and inflation pricing and the charts below show that they should now be ready to run based on the USD topping and then dropping in “price”.

At this point the U.S. Dollar has corrected upward but has now either entered its next top, or is very close to that overhead resistance. Thus, we appear to be at the point where the USD will very soon start to move lower causing Precious Metals pricing across the board to start to move up aggressively, once again. In fact, I suspect that we saw a glimpse of exactly that into the close last week. All USD comments are on the chart.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our followers and readers have been emailing us asking for more research into Precious Metals and updated Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Price Modeling charts (our proprietary price/technical mapping system capable of predicting future trends, setups, and price levels). This special Gold and Silver research article will help you learn what to expect over the next 24+ months and where opportunities exist in Gold and Silver trends.

Longer-term support in Gold likely to act as an upward sloping price floor over the next 24+ months

There are two key upward sloping trend lines we want to focus your attention on, on this Monthly Gold chart, below. The first, the YELLOW trend line, originates from the 2009 bottom from the Housing Crisis. The important thing to remember at this time was that the US markets were in the midst of a broad market Depreciation Cycle that started in 2001-02 and ended in 2010. The rally that was taking place before the 2000 Depreciation Cycle started was a reactionary upside price trend resulting from the end of the DOT COM bubble and the post 911 terrorist attacks. The US entered a war that pushed fear levels higher – resulting in a transitional shift in how Gold was perceived at that time.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda / Commodities / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As the summer doldrums drag on, precious metals bulls are eying potential support levels for a seasonal bottom.

The gold market found support at the $1,750 level last month and has since been trading with a slight upside bias. Although the price action hasn’t been especially exciting, base building in these summer months can be a healthy technical process in the context of a larger bull market.

Meanwhile, investors are weighing troubling developments on the inflation front. Price increases are hitting consumers every time they shop, and that trend shows no signs of letting up.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Gold Investors Wavering / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has been sucking wind this summer, trudging along after getting slammed by a distant-future-rate-hikes scare.  The resulting lower prices have really damaged psychology, leaving investors wavering on gold.  Their recent capital inflows have reversed into modest selling, contributing to unusual weakness in this leading alternative asset.  But investment demand should roar back in this inflationary environment.

Gold entered summer 2021 with strong upside momentum, in a young upleg that had just powered up 13.5% in 2.8 months by early June.  This current interrupted upleg is the fifth of gold’s secular bull, and the previous four averaged big 33.3% gains.  Gold was progressing nicely until the June 16th meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee.  The FOMC was expected to do nothing, and that’s what it did.

In a nothingburger monetary-policy decision, the FOMC left its zero-interest-rate policy and $120b per month of quantitative-easing money printing in place indefinitely.  There were no hints that either of these hyper-easy policy stances would be changed anytime soon.  The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term fortunes should’ve yawned at that, and gone back to enjoying lazy summers.

But with every other FOMC decision, the Fed releases a Summary of Economic Projections that shows where individual top Fed officials expect to see certain economic data in coming years.  That includes their outlooks for the federal-funds rate, which are gathered in a scatter chart known as the “dot plot”.  In mid-June’s version, 6 out of 18 top Fed officials thought there might be two quarter-point hikes into year-end 2023!

That was about 2.5 years into the future, an eternity away in the markets.  And the dot plot has proven a notoriously-inaccurate FFR predictor anyway.  That very afternoon the Fed chair himself warned that the dots are “not a Committee forecast, they’re not a plan. ... the dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.”  He said they should “be taken with a big grain of salt.”  Jerome Powell advised to ignore the dot plot!

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Commodities

Sunday, July 25, 2021

Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The current high inflation could theoretically transform into hyperinflation, disinflation, stagflation, or deflation. What does each mean for gold?

Inflation, inflation, inflation. We all know that prices have surged recently. And we all know that high inflation is likely to stay with us for a while, even if we assume that the CPI annual rate has already peaked, which is not so obvious. But let’s look beyond the nearest horizon and think about what lies ahead after months of high inflation, and what consequences it could have for the gold market.

From the logical point of view, there are three options. Inflation rates could accelerate further, leading to hyperinflation in an extreme case. They could remain more or less the same, resulting possibly in stagflation when the pace of GDP growth decelerates. And, finally, the rates of annual changes in the CPI could slow down, implying disinflation, or they could even become negative – in this scenario, we would enter the world of deflation. So, which of these “flations” awaits us?
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Commodities

Friday, July 23, 2021

Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It seems that choosing GDXJ to short the PMs was a good decision – juniors closed the day at new 2021 lows. Will our profits only grow from now on?

Gold’s yesterday’s intraday attempt to rally was not bullish. On the contrary, it was what usually happens right before a big slide. Especially given the USDX’s breakout.

Let’s start with the latter.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell admits that inflation is well above the Fed’s target, but he still considers it transitory. Gold increased in response – only to fall again.

Last week, Powell testified before Congress. On the one hand, Powell admitted in a way that inflation had reached a level higher than expected and is above the level accepted by the Fed in the longer run:

Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.

It means that the Fed was surprised by high inflation, but it doesn’t want to admit it explicitly. Instead, Powell admitted that inflation would likely stay at a high level for some time. The obvious question here is: why should we believe the Fed that inflation will really moderate later this year, given that the US central bank failed in forecasting inflation in the first half of 2021?
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Commodities

Thursday, July 22, 2021

What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Since the origin of the Federal Reserve in 1913 the US dollar has lost ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power.

Not coincidentally, but in direct reflection of the dollar’s loss in purchasing power, the price of gold has multiplied one hundred fold from $20.67 oz to $2060 oz as of August 2020.

The chart (source) below shows the ever-increasing price of gold over the past century…

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation surged in May, and some worry that it has already reached its peak. Has it indeed? This issue is key for the Fed and the gold market.

Inflation has soared recently. The CPI annual rate surged 5% in May, which was the fastest jump since the Great Recession. However, the Fed officials still maintain that inflation will only be temporary. Some of the analysts even claim that inflation has already peaked, and it will decelerate from now on. Are they right?

Well, they present a few strong arguments. First, there is no doubt that the recent rise in prices has been partially caused by the problems with the supply chains. But, luckily, the bottlenecks are short-lived phenomena, and they always resolve themselves, i.e., by the magic of market mechanism. The best example may be lumber prices which were skyrocketing earlier this year but which have recently declined, as production surged in response to rallying prices.
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Commodities

Friday, July 16, 2021

Inflation Soars, Powell Remains Unmoved. What about Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The CPI surged 5.4% in June, but Powell still sees inflation as transitory. For now, gold has risen under the dovish Fed’s wing amid higher inflation.

Did you think that 5% was high inflation? Or that inflation has already peaked? Wrong! Inflation rose even further in June, although it was already elevated in May. Indeed, the consumer price index surged 0.9% in the last month, following a 0.6% jump in May. It was the largest one-month change since June 2008, during the Great Recession.

Importantly, the Core Price Index, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.9%(after a 0.7% increase in the previous month). It shows that inflation is accelerating not only because of higher energy prices but also due to more structural, underlying trends.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Goldrunner: Gold Could Jump To $1,900-$2,100 In Next 30 days – Here’s Why / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Lorimer_Wilson

For the past two years at this juncture, the Precious Metals Sector has risen sharply in a month-long up cycle for Silver and with the high inflation expectations going forward a similar ramp up for the Precious Metals Sector is a real possibility.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 15, 2021

ECB Changed Monetary Strategy. Will It Alter Gold’s Course? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB adopts a new inflation target. Is the European Central Bank mimicking the Fed or doing its own thing? The revolution in central banking is spreading. Following the Fed, the European Central Bank has also modified its target. Last week, after an 18-months review of its monetary policy framework, the ECB published a statement on its monetary policy strategy, deciding to change its goal from “below but close to 2%” to a more symmetric aim of “2% inflation over the medium term”. The most important part of the statement is below:

The Governing Council considers that price stability is best maintained by aiming for two per cent inflation over the medium term. The Governing Council’s commitment to this target is symmetric.

The symmetry means that the ECB considers both overshooting and undershooting as equally bad. In the previous framework, the ECB clearly believed that downside deviations from inflation were less harmful than upside deviations.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 15, 2021

NASA And Big Tech Are Facing Off Over This Rare Gas / Commodities / Investing 2021

By: Submissions

Smart investors are preparing to profit from a supply squeeze in an $18-billion market.

So, what’s a supply squeeze?

Simple: When the supply of something goes DOWN at the same time demand for it goes UP...

A supply squeeze triggers.

When that happens, you can potentially make more in a short time than you would normally make over a lifetime.

For example, it just happened with lumber.

The coronavirus shut down logging. Supply DOWN.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Is This The Best Way To Play The Coming Helium Boom? / Commodities / Investing 2021

By: Submissions

Major commodity shortages all over the globe are wreaking havoc in the markets...and driving up prices of goods for consumers.

Most recently, a widespread shortage in the lumber market has generated a great deal of attention due to the impact this shortage is having on the price of home renovations and new home construction.

A global shortage of microchips is having a dramatic impact on the electronics market as well as new car manufacturing.

And additional shortages in agricultural products, building materials and cleaning products are also driving up prices and causing worry all over the globe. 

But a looming, potentially unavoidable shortage in one of the world’s most valuable commodities could soon trigger the most critical supply squeeze of our lifetime. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Gold: High Time to Move Out of the Penthouse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold’s days in a glamorous apartment at the top of the PMs’ building are numbered. We’d better prepare for a rapid elevator ride to the first floor.

The Gold Miners

With the gold miners essentially running laps on the treadmill, the HUI Index, the GDX ETF, and the GDXJ ETF are working extremely hard but making little progress. And with the gambit resulting in ‘one step forward,  two  steps back,’ frustrating exhaustion has mining stocks questioning their every move. To that point, even though the trio transitioned from the conveyor belt to the stairs in recent weeks, history shows that slow climbs often culminate with elevator rides lower. Should we expect a different outcome this time around?

Gold ended the week in the green (up by $27.30), but the HUI Index was stuck in the red (down by 1.39). This is extremely noteworthy, as a similar divergence occurred at the end of May. For context, when the yellow metal rallied by $28.60 in a week back then, the HUI Index fell by 1.37 index points.

In the following weeks, the HUI Index declined by about 50 index points, while gold declined by about $150.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Climb Aboard! Silver Should Run Up To $38 In Next 30 Days / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Lorimer_Wilson

The U.S. Dollar recently corrected upward but now appears ready to continue its move downward and this should light a fire under the price of Silver and see it undergo a 30-day run to around $38 per troy ounce as illustrated in the chart below. 

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Commodities

Friday, July 09, 2021

FOMC Minutes: A Confirmation of Fed’s Hawkish Shift? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The latest FOMC minutes were… mixed. The discussion between hawks and doves continues giving gold no comfort. Who will gain the upper hand?

Yesterday, the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting in June. Investors who counted on some clear clues are probably disappointed, as the minutes can please both hawks and doves. Indeed, the report showed that the Fed officials are divided on their inflation outlook and the appropriate course of action. The dovish side believes that the recent high inflation readings are transitory and they will ease in the not-so-distant future, while the hawkish camp worries that the upward pressure on prices could continue next year:

Looking ahead, participants generally expected inflation to ease as the effect of these transitory factors dissipated, but several participants remarked that they anticipated that supply chain limitations and input shortages would put upward pressure on prices into next year. Several participants noted that, during the early months of the reopening, uncertainty remained too high to accurately assess how long inflation pressures will be sustained.
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Commodities

Friday, July 09, 2021

Gold: The Tapering Clock Is Ticking / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With the FED increasingly hawkish and the USDX rising from the ashes, don’t be fooled by the recent upswing in gold. The bears are getting ready.

With the reflation trade getting cut off at the knees, the only asset class not feeling the pain is U.S. equities. However, while shorts capitulate and send the U.S. 10-Year Treasury higher (and the yield lower), the flattening of the U.S. yield curve screams of a potential recession. However, while the development is bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, investors are putting the cart before the horse.

To explain, while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield languishes in its depressed state, J.P. Morgan told clients on Jul. 6 that the Treasury benchmark is roughly three standard deviations below its model-implied fair value. For context, J.P. Morgan believes that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield should trade at roughly 1.60%, and, given the three-sigma underperformance, standard normal probabilities imply a roughly 99.9% chance that the Treasury benchmark will move higher over the medium term.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 08, 2021

The Silver Bull Is Not Transitory / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor delves into the silver market and discusses why it "looks primed to rally strongly on the back of multiple drivers."

Transitory. That's something we've been hearing a lot lately.

At its latest FOMC meeting the Fed naturally decided to keep the fed funds rate target at 0.25%.

It also decided not to mess with the $120 billion monthly bond buying program to help "support the flow of credit to households and businesses." Par for the course.

Meanwhile inflation numbers of the previous four months have been anything but typical. The Fed's favored Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has soared: in February it was 1.6%, March 2.4%, April 3.6% and in May 3.9%.

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