Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Gold and Silver Surge Higher on Bad US Economic Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was up $8.70 to $946.10 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver surged 58 cents to $18.66 per ounce. Gold particularly continued to surge in Asian and early European trading. Gold also surged in British pounds and euro. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $958.75 and gold fixed at new record highs in most major currencies - at£481.62 and €636.32.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Crude Oil $100+ Price is Here to Stay / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
A brief review of the driving factors pushing oil higher - Over the last year, as oil has advanced from US$50 to $100, there has been countless academic papers on why the worlds most heavily traded commodity will likely not increase much above US$70 to $80. The main rationale? Alternative energy sources (e.g., coal, biofuels, wind, solar and uranium) will fill the gap and keep oil at a more comfortable level well below the infamous US$100 mark. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
New High for Gold on Euro Break Above $1.50 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHSYICAL gold bullion leapt to new record highs above $964.50 per ounce early in London on Wednesday, gaining more than 3.9% from Tuesday's low as European stock markets slipped back and the US Dollar slid towards new all-time lows on the currency markets.Breaching $1.50 for the first time ever today, the European single currency has now gained 12.7% versus the Dollar since the US Federal Reserve began slashing its interest rates in Aug. 2007.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Is the Gold Bull Market Unstoppable? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
As we watch the trading session winding down in New York we can see gold and silver have had a tremendous day, with gold starting out at $935/oz and progressing to touch $950 as we write. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Gold Bull Market Continues On A Roll! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Vaughn
Gold continues to perform beyond all expectations. Many readers are angry because they believe gold is climbing too high too fast. Blame it ultimately on the US dollar. I believe Friday gold climbed as high as 950 before resting comfortably at 944 an ounce. What goes on here? Why does gold continue to climb like this? We are almost at 1,000 an ounce and gold shows no weakness.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Gold Investors Reluctance to Buy Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
This wonderful rally in Gold, largely driven by money chasing momentum, is generating a great deal of bravado. Coming sale of a significant amount of Gold by the IMF is scoffed at. Why all of a sudden did the G-7 agree to it? Is more to come? At the same time, US$ is feeling the wrath of momentum money as its value is trashed. “More Money” Misken at the Federal Reserve thinks only of benefits from lower U.S. interest rates, while ignoring the damage.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
US Fed Fueling Hyper Inflationary Global Commodities Market Bubble / Commodities / Stagflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
“Too much money, chasing too few commodities,” might be the best way to explain the historic rally that is underway in the global commodities markets. Central bankers in eighteen of the top-20 economies in the world have been expanding their money supplies at double digit rates for the past several years, trying to prevent their currencies from rising too quickly against the sickly US dollar. Nowadays, fund managers are pouring billions of dollars into commodities across the board, as a hedge against the explosive growth of the world's money supply, competitive currency devaluations, and the negative interest rates engineered by central banks. To the chagrin of central bankers, much of new money pumped into the global markets, is also going into commodities, instead of the stock market.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Gold Bounces on US Wholesale Inflation Hitting 26 Year Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES bounced from a four-session low at the London opening on Tuesday, recovering two-thirds of the week's 2.8% losses to date on news that producer-price inflation for US industry rose last month at a 26-year record clip. Wholesale prices increased 1% in Jan. said the Labor Dept. just ahead of the Wall Street open, twice the pace expected by private economists. Now running at 7.4% year-on-year, wholesale price inflation was last seen at these levels in the fall of 1981.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
IMF Proposed Gold Sale Looks Doubtful / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $7.30 to $937.40 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday but silver was up 10 cents to $18.08 per ounce. Gold continued to weaken in Asia but has strengthened somewhat in early European trading and is trading at $934.10 per ounce.Another mooted IMF gold proposal (more below) may have led some weak longs to liquidate positions yesterday. But after recent week's surge in gold and last week's sharp (4.5%) increase in the price of gold, the market was overbought in the short term and ripe for a correction. It was interesting that silver has remained strong despite gold's less than 1% sell off.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Gold Stocks Potential Future Investment Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: John_Mauldin
I get more questions about gold than other single topic. The fascination for the "barbarous relic" among my readers is clear. This week in Outside the Box we take a look at the gold stocks and the potential future investment opportunity. David Galland of Casey Research provides an intriguing analysis of the gold market today. In particular, why have gold stocks lagged the rise in gold? This is the opposite of what orthodox gold investing strategy says should happen. And I happen to agree with David's rationale for the paradox and his contention that gold stocks are poised (finally!) for the same rise that their base metal brethren have seen. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
How High Can Gold Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down $1 to $944.70 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday but silver was up 10 cents to $18.00 per ounce. Gold rose close to new nominal record highs in early European trading ($951.90) and silver rose to new 27 year highs ($18.15) . Last week gold was up by more than 4.5% (more than $40) as fears regarding burgeoning inflation and indeed stagflation began to permeate financial markets. Silver was even stronger and was up by 5% on the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Monetary Inflation Feeding Precious Metals Bull Markets- The Bubble Inside the Bubble / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“Despite seasonality beginning to work against gold and silver, there is no bearishness or call to short here. Copper could be set to break out of a multi-year consolidation.” ~Precious Points: Bull Markets in Metals, February 16, 2008
It would be easy to give the most unabashedly bullish picture for metals week after week. The temptation to do so is very real given that I've been a believer in the metals story since before the subprime meltdown, before the faintest whisper of a possible crisis in exotic credit-based derivatives began appearing on the web (but nowhere in the mainstream commercial media). But this week, though it seems a stall in the rally may be ahead if the Fed continues to jawbone the issue of inflation, I am compelled to revise my charts in a decidedly bullish fashion.
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Sunday, February 24, 2008
Oil and Gold Inflation Assets Hit New All-Time Highs / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
This week saw both Gold and Oil hit new all-time highs. Gold rose to $958.40 on Thursday, February 21 st . Oil rose to $100.86 on Wednesday, February 20th . Silver also busted out higher, hitting $18.19 Friday, February 22 nd . In the face of deflating housing prices, stock prices, and high risk credit assets, gold, silver, and oil are flying high. What is going on? Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Gold Push to New Highs Lacks Strength / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
The price of gold continues into new highs BUT the strength of such recent move keeps getting weaker. Either the strength needs to improve soon or the weakness may dominate.
GOLD : LONG TERM
I thought it was time to check in again on the long term P&F Chart. Since we last looked in on it we have gone though a consolidation period and have broken into new highs. Most important, the action has now given us a higher value as a major support which, if breached, may give us a bear market reversal signal.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Gold's Hypnotic $1000 Price Target and the Outlook for Precious Metal Shares / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Clif_Droke
There is a lot of fear circulating around the Internet concerning gold/silver and the gold/silver stocks. As contrarians, that's exactly what we like to see. It lets us know the prevailing trend (up) is still intact and that higher prices are likely to be seen before the next interim top is in.
The fear in the PM stocks among the “dumb money” trading public almost perfectly mirrors the optimism shown by the “smart money” traders who have recently been buying the PM stocks with both hands in anticipation of another leg up in the momentum market for the gold stocks. Take for instance the latest readings in the CBOE Gold Index put/call open interest.
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Saturday, February 23, 2008
Energy Sector Peak Oil Trends Paint “A Very Alarming Picture” / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
While energy demand may be tempered by a slowdown in global economic growth, longer term growing energy demands and supply constraints will continue to present incredible challenges. Much more capital will need to be allocated to the sector to address supply issues, which should create opportunities for investors. We noted the following developments in the energy sector last month:Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
XAU Gold Stocks Index Brought Down Through Derivatives Market Manipulation / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Rob_Kirby
Who remembers when the effects of the sub-prime contagion and subsequent freeze-up of the debt markets began to make itself visible?
For those of you who might be unaware, it was the summer of 07 – and I'd like to present this little picture of how the DOW JONES reacted to the impending financial seizures and ‘broke down' as a little refresher:
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Saturday, February 23, 2008
Could Gold Mimic Platinum's Parabolic Move? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My technical work is telling me (and has been telling me) that gold prices (the GLD) is on borrowed time on the upside, and that they will implode IF in fact the global slowdown story has any merit. Then again, growing perceptions of stagflation could last a while longer, until the commodity sector rolls over amidst evidence of a global economic contraction.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Will the G-7 Nations Impose Capital Controls? / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Finance leaders from the Group of Seven, industrialized nations discussed collective action “to calm markets, if price moves become irrational .” Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 –the United States, Canada, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy—said that financial market turmoil was serious and persisting. They also said more work was needed to restore markets to good working order and safeguard global growth. The European Central Bank believes that turbulence on financial markets could continue for months. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
HUI Gold Stocks Index Up-Legs Structure Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
Despite very difficult prevailing stock-market conditions, the HUI unhedged gold-stock index has soared 55% since mid-August! You'd think gold-stock traders would be thrilled with such awesome gains. Instead they are very disappointed, because gold itself is up 45% over this same period of time and the HUI hasn't adequately leveraged its gains.
To delve into this vexing conundrum, a couple weeks ago I updated my research on HUI leverage to gold . It showed that leverage varies wildly over the course of uplegs, so it is pointless to worry about mid-upleg. Like the weather, it will soon change. As I was doing this leverage research, some fascinating peripheral insights into the technical structure of HUI uplegs became apparent.
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