Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
U.S. Gold Production Declined 7% During First 9 Months of 2014 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jason_Hamlin
I have long argued that gold would bottom around the all-in cost of production and this would provide price support. This is because as the price drops below the cost to produce, miners will be forced to shut down or suspend operations. This reduces supply and lower supply is supportive of prices, assuming demand remains relatively stable. We are finally starting to see signs that gold supplies are declining.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price: What's Next? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
Today, there is no shortage of opinions about oil.
So why should you bother reading this one?
Because 99% of oil forecasts out there are based on so-called fundamentals. The same "fundamentals" that back in June, when oil cost $107 a barrel, promised even higher prices due to:
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Thursday, December 18, 2014
Crude Oil Price - The Doji-generated Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
The price of crude oil declined yesterday once again - was the bottom reached yet?
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Gold Roubles - This Is What Gold Does In a Currency Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: John_Rubino
To say that gold is in a bear market is to misunderstand both gold and markets. Gold isn't an investment that goes up and down. It is money in the most basic store-of-value sense. Most of the time it just sits there, and when its price changes in local currency terms that says more about the local currency than about gold.
But when currencies collapse, gold shines.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Opposing Forces At Play In Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Ronald Stoeferle writes: Precious metals had a hard time in 2014. However, this year proved to be not as catastrophic as last year, as the gold price remained in the trading range which was established last year after the waterfall price declines.
The “good” news for gold bulls is that the bottom of the trading range has been tested a third time, in particular on November 10th 2014. Readers undoubtedly remember how the previous two tests took place in June 2013 and on the very last day of 2013.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Gold and Silver Stocks Bottom - Are We There Yet? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
One can only draw so many lines on a chart before they become completely confused on what trendline is actually important. Many will just starting connecting two top points and two bottom points and calling it a pattern. That's not how you find a chart pattern. A chart pattern shows the fight between the bulls and the bears. Lets use a triangle as an example of the fight between the bulls and the bear in an uptrend.
If the stock is in an uptrend the first reversal point will be when the initial top takes place. This can be on any time frame. Next you need to see the bears take control and drive prices lower creating the first reversal point starting at the top. At some point the bears will run out of gas and the bulls come charging back rallying the price backup to another high that is slightly lower than the first reversal point number one high, before they run out of strength to move the stock higher. Once the lower high is in place you can put a number 2 under the first low inside the triangle.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
The FED’s easy money has encouraged rampant energy speculation and over-investment, resulting in more than $500 billion in new loans and investments in just the past 4 years. And so long as Crude prices stayed comfortably above $90, investments made money and everyone was happy. But once energy prices started falling, the decline quickly became a negative loop-back effect because the very high levels of leverage could not tolerate the move. Whenever asset prices fall in a highly levered market, there is often a sudden lack of liquidity to absorb the speculators’ need to unwind leverage, leading to desperation and fire sales. In the case of energy, the sudden disappearance of “investors” highlights just how speculative the underlying market had become.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Stunning Crude Oil Price Crash - Black Gold Loses its Glitter / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Peter_Schiff
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation. While all of these issues merit detailed discussions, the first question to address is if the steep drop is here to stay and whether energy prices will stay low enough, for long enough, to seriously reshuffle the economic deck. Based on a variety of factors, this is not likely to happen. I believe a series of technical, industrial, and monetary factors will combine to push oil back up to, and potentially beyond, the levels that it has seen over the last few years.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Silver Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Clive_Maund
Silver broke out of its 5-month downtrend last week as expected, but, as with gold, the move was unfortunately not confirmed by action in stocks, which have continued to drift lower. When this fact is combined with the ramping of Commercial short and Large Spec long positions over the past couple of weeks, it starts to look like this breakout was false. Certainly a reaction is looking a lot more likely now.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Gold Price Base Building Bullish Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Clive_Maund
If we lived in a normal word of fiscal propriety, the falling oil price would be viewed as something to celebrate, as it reduces costs across the board, and should theoretically boost the economy, but we live in an abnormal debt-wracked world where instead fears are surfacing that the plunging oil price will trigger a series of cascading loan defaults that have the potential to collapse the system - already world stockmarkets are buckling. If things really start to unravel it should provide the perfect excuse to bring in global coordinated QE, which we have been moving towards over the past few years, albeit on an ad hoc basis, whose underlying purpose will be to maintain interest rates at zero to stop the system collapsing, and to push the bill for the mess onto the little guy, whose standard of living will be progressively eroded by QE engendered inflation. At what point will they ride to the rescue with their global QE program? - that is a matter of conjecture, but we can presume that they will wait until things get sufficiently bad that people are starting to clamor for it so that it becomes politically acceptable and they can get away with it.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Silver Eagle Coin Sales Very Robust - Record High For Second Consecutive Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Silver bullion demand remains very robust as silver stackers continue to stack. 2014 has been another record-breaking year at the U.S. Mint which has sold 43.3 million silver eagle coins – up from 42.7 million coins last year.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Is The Oil Price Collapse A Monumental Black Swan? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DK_Matai
Although the conditions for an oil price collapse have been there since 2013, yet when it arrived in the second half of 2014, it happened suddenly and then accelerated in momentum like a snowball rolling down the Alps. A truly monumental black swan with many cascading consequences for geo-strategy, financial markets and the global economy. Ten key questions discussed at a recent private lunch ATCA 5000 hosted for select chairmen and chief executives of major financial institutions, family offices and technology players:
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Monday, December 15, 2014
Gold - The Weight of Time as Trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
George R Harrison writes: We’ve all felt it. The ‘weight’ of time acting as Trends in the markets.
Trends that hold longer than expected and whose change in direction appears when we least expect or believe it.
Once time accumulates for an action and establishes a Trend, those trends take a lot of work to change.
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Sunday, December 14, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crashing Towards $40 per Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Russo
From speculation of international currency wars, to related geopolitical tensions, to the economics of actual supply-demand equations, there is no shortage of theories as to the reasons behind the recent tumble in crude, or if such a decline bodes ill or well for the economy of main street.
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Sunday, December 14, 2014
Gold and Silver Dreaming of a White Christmas / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Stocks continued lower, putting in their worst week since May 2012.
Oil cracked into the $50's. We paid 2.25 per gallon for regular gasoline yesterday. Supply has been healthy, but demand has been off. So this is a mixed bag. We need to keep an eye on retail sales and wages.
I have a suspicion that a lot of the stock selling is part of an end of year portfolio cleansing. We will know more if we see how it goes next week.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
Gold And Silver - Wall Street, aka United States, Pulls Off Another Destructive Coup / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
The clichéd definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
There is no room for sanity in the United States, anymore, and the public is sleepwalking through it all. Arguably, this has been carefully orchestrated by the elites over the past century, as in 100 years and not just in the past decade or so. Capitalism is dead in the US, and has been for decades. Ironically, China and Russia are far more capitalistic. Once the elites took over the money supply, with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913, there was a concerted effort to take over all media and start a propaganda scheme that is far superior than any other country in effective population control.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
Gold and Silver Starting to Show Bullish Signs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
We've believed that Gold would need to break $1100 before we thought a bottom could start to develop. While that could still be the case, we are starting to see building evidence that precious metals could be forming a bottom.
In the past we've written about the importance of Gold's performance against other asset classes. Relative strength in Gold has preceded important bottoms in the Gold price during 2001, 2005 and 2008. That relative strength is starting to show. Below we plot Gold against various asset classes, which are noted in the chart. Several days ago Gold against foreign currencies (and the Euro) closed at a 15-month high. Gold has also moved to a 13-month high against Commodities. Also Gold may have bottomed against global equities as it has held support three times in 2014. Gold is weak only against the S&P 500.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Commodities - Is Inflation Oversold? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
First, for all you right minded wording detectives out there, you are absolutely right… inflation is not rising prices and deflation is not dropping prices. Also, deflation is not two measures of a heavily manipulated bond market (chart 1) dropping impulsively. But for the sake of argument, let’s realize that Main Street does indeed call $4 regular at the pump “inflation” and every several years when a scare crops up they call dropping stocks and house prices “deflation”.
Here are some pictures of an over sold ‘inflation’ story, which put another way, is an over bought ‘deflation’ story.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Gold Was The Safe Haven This Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
This week precious metals continued their recovery, with gold up $35 at $1220 and silver up about $1 at $17 this morning, thus building on the improved trend since gold bottomed nearly $90 lower at $1132 on 7 November.
Gold seems to be finding support at the 50-day moving average (MA), which currently stands at $1198 and now rising. The 200-day MA is at $1246, which suggests supply at this level could cap the rise for the moment: these levels matter to technical traders. On Comex there is evidence of some buying of gold futures, as opposed to bear closing, which is reflected in the rise in net contracts for the managed Money category shown in the chart below.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
New York Times on Benefits of Gold in Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The New York Times published an important article this week in which the benefits of gold to nation states during a period of currency wars was highlighted. The article was noteworthy as the New York Times has rarely covered gold in a positive manner.