Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Commodities Secular Bull Continues Into 2008 - Many More Years to Run! / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
The rebirth of the secular bull market of commodities beginning in 2000 can be mainly contributed, first to the cresting and eventual decline of the U.S. dollar and second, the mounting economic expansion of China and India. Combined, these two forces have propelled raw material prices into a long-term uptrend.
The current extended rise in natural resources is best measured against a broad equity market. In Chart 1, the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) and the S&P 500 are compared for performance over the past 12 years. During most of the 1980s and all of the 1990s, paper-based equities (S&P 500) greatly outperformed raw materials (CRB).
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Gold Approaching Mania Stage / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Vaughn
Gold appears to be holding up well. Over 900 an ounce now but most investors are still asleep. What is a “mania?”
“ An abnormally elevated mood state characterized by such symptoms as inappropriate elation, increased irritability, severe insomnia, grandiose notions, increased speed and/or volume of speech, disconnected and racing thoughts, increased sexual desire…” “…inappropriate social behavior.” “Mania is the Greek word for madness.” MedicineNet.com
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Gold Euphoria Points to an Imminent Correction / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Gold's explosive start of year move has been enjoyed by all. Has it been over enjoyed? Fundamentals of the U.S. dollar did not suddenly get worse on the first day of the year.
Current euphoria in the Gold market may have been over done. One way of assessing that possibility is to compare the Gold price of the dollar to what is happening to the value of the dollar in other national monies. In the chart below, the red line is the Gold price of the U.S. dollar. It is how much Gold is required to purchase a single dollar, and is measured in ounces. The calculation is 1 divided by the dollar price of Gold. When that red line is falling, the dollar price of Gold is rising. When rising, dollar price of Gold is falling.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Investing in Latin American Rich Resources / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss. and Rudy Martin write: I've been going back and forth to South America almost every year since I was six years old.
My first trip was in 1952 on Moore-McCormack's SS Brasil and took us about eight days. My last trip was two weeks ago on Brazil's TAM Airlines and took us about eight hours.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Silver Breaking Out of its Massive Consolidation Pattern Dramatic Rally Expected / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Silver is at last breaking out of its massive 20-month consolidation pattern. It tried to do this last November, but the attempt was premature and it slumped back into pattern. Now it is expected to succeed and the advance should accelerate noticeably going forward. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Rumours of Fed Emergency Rate Cuts To Avert Serious Economic Downturn / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold's strong performance continued yesterday and gold was up $7 to $901.90 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 6 cents to $16.29 per ounce. Gold surged in Asian and European trading to new record highs at $914 per ounce before selling off in U.S. trading. Gold has traded in a range between $900 and $910 per ounce in Asia and early European trading. The London AM Fix yesterday was at a new record high of $911.50 (up from $887.85 the previous day). The London AM Fix was at $904.75. Gold's resilience and close above the psychological $900 price level is bullish. Gold consolidated near record highs in other major currencies. At the London AM Fix gold was trading at £460.76 (up from £464.32 yesterday) and €609.05 (up from €612.16 yesterday).
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Gold Over-extended But Extremely Strong Suggesting Mild Corrections / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
This is not the time to get bogged down with minor details, and thus risk losing sight of the big picture, which is that gold is now in a powerful uptrend that has a lot further to run. For this reason we will only look at long-term 8-year charts in this update.
On the 'normal' 8-year chart in dollars, gold is clearly well on its way, and to some it may look overextended already, after its strong advance of recent weeks, but there are 2 important factors that we will consider that are not on this chart, which indicate that it is likely to ascend to much higher levels before this uptrend is over.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Investing in Silver - the Bulky Precious Metal / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
Having survived another holiday season, and after putting away most of the holiday decorations, my mind wandered as to what would be a good article to start off the New Year. Certainly we could follow the general genre and produce a forecast for 2008 on the economy, metals prices, elections—however, it seems there is already enough of this out on the Internet already.
My musing took me back to challenge the general “non-thinking” consensus about the silver market and an opinion that I'm met with quite often. Without the myriad of twists on the basic question, let me make it a general statement.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Gold $900 and 2008 Forecast / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Not even a month into 2008 and Gold is stealing all headlines again. The ancient metal of kings has hit an all time nominal high while many other markets have struggled since August. Can gold go higher from here? Is this a top? Below is a long-term weekly chart of the aforementioned metal.
The various black trendlines all have the same slope and therefore form important channels. Gold has just hit long-term channel resistance. The Bollinger band width is very high, also implying a top could be at hand. The arrows show trendline support. The current risk outweighs the reward.
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Monday, January 14, 2008
Investors Flock To Gold as Global Banking Crisis Worsens / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT GOLD MARKET surged into the London opening once again on Monday, starting the week at a new record high of $914 per ounce and hitting record highs against all other major currencies, too.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Gold Breaks Above Psychological Level of $900 - Short-term Correction Expected / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold's strong performance continued last week and gold was up $4 to $894.90 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver was up 8 cents to $16.23 per ounce. Gold was thus up 3.5% for the week and silver surged 6% breaking long standing overhead resistance to reach new 27 year highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Is Copper Signaling Lower Gold Prices Ahead? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clif_Droke
Here's a question many investors have asked in recent weeks, especially given the current divergence between the gold and copper prices.
Copper has a history of providing leading signals for the price of gold. Most notably, the copper price double-bottomed between 1999-2001 and refused to make a lower low during a time when the price of gold make a 20-year low. This leading signal in copper preceded the major turnaround in the yellow metal price in 2002 and beyond.
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Sunday, January 13, 2008
Uranium, Gold and Silver Outlook / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Merv_Burak
Well, gold has now made it to a new all time intra-day high. Again, so what? Momentum and volume activity are still lagging. Go with the flow but keep your protective options at the ready.
URANIUM
By all news accounts uranium is much in demand these days. In fact, uranium is supposed to be in greater and greater demand over the next many years as more and more nuclear plants in China and elsewhere come on steam. But it seems that after a sharp run-up over the past few years uranium and uranium stocks just can't seem to get any more steam for further advancement. Were they so overpriced that they are now destined not to go anywhere for some time, until the usage increases significantly?
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Natural Gas Long-term Outlook / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Elliot_H_Gue
Natural gas prices have been on a roll in the past few weeks, with the 12-month New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) strip rising to about $8.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this morning, up more than $1 dollar off recent lows.
As I discussed in a post on At These Levels yesterday, the NYMEX strip is the most relevant measure of natural gas prices in the US. On NYMEX, gas futures contracts trade with expirations every month. Prices vary wildly from month to month because of seasonality, expectations of future supply shortages or gluts, and the cost of gas storage, among other factors.
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Sunday, January 13, 2008
Gold Strength During US Bi-Inflationary Depression / Commodities / Deflation
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Watch gold prices continue to rise, even accelerate, as the US economy goes into recession, then depression, while inflationary and deflationary forces will battle each other like two vultures fighting over which one gets to devour the juicier part of the carcass.
Since this scenario utterly defies conventional wisdom, the most obvious question that arises is: “how?” How can inflation and deflation happen at the same time? How can the money supply both shrink and increase, how can prices both rise and fall at the same time?It can, because each condition will occur in different segments of the economy. Let's first take a look at the current situation as it presents itself:Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Energy Sector Stunning Demand and Production Trends & Developments / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
While we did not see triple digit crude oil prices in the futures market last year we remain optimistic the energy sector will perform well in 2008. Growing global energy demands will continue to present challenges to the market.
Several graphics we ran across last month illustrate the major issues in the energy sector. The chart at right from an article in the Financial Times illustrates that the use of fossil fuels has correlated very closely with economic growth over the last 185 years.
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Sunday, January 13, 2008
Gold $900 - Fed Failing to Beat Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“Any perception of the Fed's stinginess might play into a consolidation period for metals and could also start a rally in the dollar that has so far not appeared at the top of the year as some expected. That we've seen any weakness in metals at all lately might simply be the technicals asserting themselves, flattening out the ascent a bit before another run. Consider that oil is trading at all-time inflation adjusted highs, whereas gold's inflation adjusted record is above $2000 per ounce! Breaking through and holding last week's highs will be the first objective of any bullish activity.” ~ Precious Points: Wave 1 Done? January 06, 2008 Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Gold Investments - Time to take Profits? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Go on - choose where you'll keep your profits. Then sell your gold if you dare..."
IMAGINE YOU'D been smart and put some cash into gold.
You didn't need to buy before the Gold Market took off. Buying gold at the start of last month will do fine.
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Saturday, January 12, 2008
Gold and Silver Stocks Bull Market Vs US Stocks Secular Bear Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
The young new year has not been very happy at all for the stock markets. In the first five trading days of 2008 alone, the S&P 500 bled a brutal 5.3%. This sharp slide nearly doubled the SPX's losses since early October to 11.2%. Once a general-market correction exceeds 10%, Wall Street gets nervous.
These growing fears have been very apparent on CNBC, which reflects general stock-market sentiment as efficiently as a weathervane reflects prevailing winds. Hosts and guest commentators alike on this premier television network for traders have been universally wringing their hands in disgust. Not only are they worried, but they are lamenting that “all sectors” are being crushed by the “universal selloff”.
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Friday, January 11, 2008
Gold at $890 on Merrill Lynch $15billion Mortgage Loss / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES for immediate delivery held 1% below their new overnight records in London early on Friday, flipping around $890 per ounce as the US open drew near.
"Yesterday the Gold Market looked bearish on the day [but] after the initial dip we had a rally of $30," says this morning's note from the metals dealers at Mitsui in Sydney .
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