Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Silver Price set up to get Whacked Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

There are a lot of fine words being written about how attractive silver is at current prices and how it is about to enter a new bullmarket etc, but the plain truth is that it remains in a major downtrend and is a bearmarket until it breaks out of it.

We can see the long persistent downtrend in silver on the 8-year chart below, and how, as yet, there is no sign of an end to it. If the dollar broke down from its parabolic uptrend, shown on a chart in the parallel Gold Market update, that might change things of course, but last week the dollar looked to be getting ready for a breakout to new highs, so that appears to be off the table for now.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Gold Price Dome Cap, Fall Below $1000 Likely / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

Although gold has rallied as expected in the last update, the advance has been modest and now it appears to be weakening again, and with its latest COTs showing a marked deterioration and the dollar maintaining its parabolic acceleration, it looks set to drop back along with silver. The long-term uptrend remains down.

On the 6-month chart we can see how gold's advance following its breakout from a rather steep downtrend has already run into trouble at a resistance level, and it appears to be rounding over within a Dome pattern that looks set to force it into decline. If the dollar accelerates to the upside, looking likely at this point, then gold can be expected to drop back initially to the support shown in the $1130 - $1140 area, and then break lower. Moving averages are in bearish alignment.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

Gold and Silver Policy Will Continue until Pitchforks and Torches Appear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

Gold led the way as it popped back over 1200 on news that India showed record gold imports in March of 125 tonnes.

Gold is flowing from West to East. The data shows this without much room for error, unless you are an economist or analyst whose paycheck has willfully obscured their vision. How this ends I do not know and no one can really say. But it will end. I would like to think that at some point the central planners will go so far off into the weeds of their own obfuscation that the people will generally rise up and tell them to take them models and use them to pound sand.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

What is Next for Gold and Silver Markets? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Richard_Cox

Over the last year, precious metals markets have have been one of the most closely watched asset classes in the financial environment as price volatility has reached heightened levels on several occasions.  For those looking for evidence that the declines have finished (and that the long-term uptrend has resumed), it will be critical to turn the attention back to the underlying economic data that will determine where sentiment moves in the broader market.  It is always a good idea to keep in mind that gold and silver tend to perform well when the rest of the market looks negative, as investors have historically used precious metals as a way of gaining safe haven exposure and to safeguard against potential rises in inflation.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

What Gold's Bull Market (That's Right, Bull Market) Means For Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: John_Rubino

One of the oddities of floating exchange rates is that they cause people to view the world in terms of their own national currency. For Americans that means looking out through a window that is distorted by the dollar's recent surge. A C$100-a-night Vancouver BC hotel room, for instance, cost about US$100 in 2013 and now costs about $80. Most other Canadian products are commensurately cheaper, making a week north of the border suddenly a lot easier to fit into the family budget. Though fundamentally not much has changed.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Gold And Silver Nothing Of Substance Going On. Fiat “Dollar” Controlling? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

There is little going on in the precious metals markets that indicates directional movement to the upside, and not even much to the downside. The news is as disjointed but permeated with sameness as ever before. To try to make sense of nonsense remains in the theater of the absurd. All we have to offer are the current read of charts, and they are an extension of what they have been like for the last several weeks.

A look at the fiat faux “dollar” chart, the antithesis of gold, may offer the best clue as to why PMs remain mired in the trading range reaches within their protracted down trends.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Ghosts In The Machine - Population Growth vs Food Production / Commodities / Food Crisis

By: Richard_Mills

In 1798 32 year-old British economist Malthus anonymously published "An Essay on the Principle of Population" and in it he argued that human population's increase geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16 etc.) while their food supply can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4 etc.). Since food is obviously necessary for us to survive, unchecked population growth in any one area or involving the whole planet would lead to individual pockets of humanity starving or even mass worldwide starvation.

"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man." Thomas Robert Malthus

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Gold-Futures Short Covering Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s bottoming consolidation grind continues, with investment demand still garroted by sky-high world stock markets and the parabolic US dollar.  With investors missing in action, gold prices remain totally at the mercy of American futures speculators.  These perpetually-bearish traders are once again heavily short gold, which has led to sharp short-covering rallies in recent years.  The latest one has just started.

In normal markets, gold prices are determined by global investment demand.  This certainly isn’t the biggest source, running at just under a quarter of world gold demand last year according to the World Gold Council.  But it’s the most volatile by far, changing dramatically with the shifting winds of investors’ favor for gold.  When they want to diversify into gold, their extra buying inexorably pushes gold prices higher.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Gold Price “Going Higher” and “A Big Buy Here” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Negative Interest Rates and Rising Interest Rates Positive For Gold
- HSBC suggests negative rates may drive customers out of digital and into holding paper cash
- ZIRP and NIRP very positive for gold
- Rising U.S. rates not negative for gold due to emergence of China, India, Middle East and EMs
- When rates do rise will be positive for gold
- Costly in terms of wealth preservation and returns not to have an allocation to gold
- Gold “going higher” and “a big buy here”
- Gold up 3.1% in euros and 2.2% in pounds this week

Friday, April 10, 2015

Strong U.S. Dollar Nips Gold and Silver Rally in The Bud / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This week started well for gold and silver, but it turned out that the peak for both was on Easter Monday, since when prices have drifted lower. The news event that initially drove prices higher was the US unemployment statistics for March announced last Friday, which came in 120,000 less than expected with downward revisions for the two previous months totalling a further 69,000.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Oil Price - How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

OPEC has been the most talked about international organization among investors, analysts and international political lobbies in the last few months.

When OPEC speaks, the world listens in rapt attention as it accounts for nearly 40 % of the world's total crude output. With its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, one of the mandates of 12- member OPEC is to "ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry." (Source: opec.org).

Friday, April 10, 2015

Saudi Arabia Just Delivered Another Strike in the “Oil War” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Saudi Arabia just sent the most powerful signal yet it means business in the “Oil War.”

On Tuesday, oil minister Ali al-Naimi revealed Saudi oil production jumped in March to 10.3 million barrels a day.

That marked an increase of 700,000 barrels per day from February, or the biggest ramp in production since November 2011. That figure is now expected to remain around 10 million barrels for some time.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Greece, Gold, The Death Of Paper Money And The Modern State / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

The size and existence of the modern state is limited only by the ability to borrow money; an ability dependent on the continuing value of fiat paper money.  That limit has now been reached. Greece is not just a country that overindulged on the bankers’ poisoned candy of cheap credit. Greece is the canary in the coal mine of the modern state.

When gold was removed from the international monetary system in 1971, US interest rates were 6%.  By 1980, however, US rates rapidly rose to 21.5% in order to contain virulent inflationary forces unleashed when ties between paper money and gold were cut. The separation of gold and money was unprecedented. So, too, would be the consequences.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Gold and Silver Expect Lower Prices Once Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, a speculative short position (half) in gold, silver and mining stocks is justified from the risk/reward point of view.

Precious metals declined once again yesterday. The move was particularly visible in silver. Is the white metal telling us something? We think that it is, but the message is not that straightforward.

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Iran Nuclear "Deal" Won't Drive Crude Oil Prices Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Here at Money Morning we recently had the opportunity to sit down with Dr. Kent Moors, Money Map Press' Global Energy Strategist, for a quick chat about oil.

Kent had taken time out of his frequent world travels – scoping out the latest global energy profit developments – to stop by our HQ in Baltimore.

Here's what he told us about his "ground level" view of the real impact recent geopolitical events in Iran will have on the price of oil.

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Top 12 Media Myths On Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The upstream oil and gas industry is not a black hole. There's no mystery wrapped in an enigma here.

There are a lot of meetings with engineers, chemists and geologists. There's a constantly evolving learning curve. And then there's all the regulations and compliance. But all-in-all it's pretty straight forward, that is, until the media gets a hold of it. That's when it becomes complicated. It's as though we are getting reports from the mysteries of the deep ocean or life in the great galaxies beyond. There is so much hyperbole and unsupported guesswork that investors don't have a chance. So, in a small effort to set the record straight, let's see if we can't dispel some of the misinformation.

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Gold Stocks: This Bear Sleeps at least for now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Bob_Kirtley

Background
2015 has started brightly with gold, silver and the miners all rallying to higher ground as evidenced by the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI, gaining 50 points or approximately 30%. This sort of behavior in any sector brings out the bulls in full cry that the bottom is in and we should all hit the acquisitions trail. Alas this rally didn’t last and the miners soon started to give back the gains almost as quickly as they were made. This pattern of falling stock prices punctuated by sudden price hikes has characterized the precious metals sector for the last three years or so. Unfortunately the bounce is rarely of the same magnitude of the preceding falls in prices and so we have witnessed the HUI fall from a high of 630 to a close today of 167, recording a drop of some 73% in the value of these stocks.

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Buy Gold and Silver Stocks Before the Bear Goes into Hibernation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

Eric Muschinski, editor of the Chicago-based Gold Investment Letter, says that investing in a bear market is not about picking the absolute bottom—it's about accumulating your favorite companies regularly and averaging in at massive discounts. In this interview with The Gold Report, Muschinski lists some highly undervalued equities and tells investors to get more aggressive, especially this summer, when he believes the bear could go into hibernation.

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Crude Oil Price Breaks Above One Support, but the More Important One Still Holds / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The last 2 days were quite encouraging for crude oil bulls as the black gold rallied above 2 declining resistance lines and the volume during yesterday's upswing was high. Is this enough to make the outlook bullish?

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

The Energy Trouble Center Nobody’s Talking About (Yet) / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: I’d been looking forward to delivering the keynote address at a conference in its capital city, Manama. But now the government has cancelled my appearance, and the U.S. Department of State has even seconded the conclusion.

What’s keeping me out of Bahrain, a wealthy, tiny island country in the Persian Gulf? The threat of Sunni-Shiite violence, which is spreading throughout the Middle East and North Africa. There’s no sign that it’s slowing down.