Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Handicapping the Precious Metals Through Year-End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the recent rise in precious metals prices and what he sees ahead for the metals. As many of us have grown to appreciate over the years, forecasts tend to be nothing more than "educated guesses" and no matter what methods one uses, predicting directional and amplitudinal movements in economics or finance or asset prices is analogous to standing in the paddock at Woodbine racetrack with a copy of the racing forum and a cup of black coffee, trying to determine whether Stormy's Revenge or Gluewagon is going to take the fifth in the mud. I spend literally hours upon hours drawing lines on charts and reading other people's forecasts in a desperate attempt to handicap the next $50 move in gold and I must confess that even without the nausea brought about by countless interventions and manipulations, it is an extremely difficult exercise.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Gold & Silver Corrective Rally is Almost Over / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Strong words, aren’t they? And yet, we are not afraid to put them right in the title. The number of factors (and their importance) that point to a nearby reversal and continuation of the major decline is too significant to believe in the bullish case, even though gold, silver, and mining stocks moved higher in the last few days.
We emphasized it many times and we will continue to do so, as it’s very easy to forget about it when things get volatile on a day-to-day basis. The long-term signals are far more important than the short-term ones. In a fight, it’s not always the bigger guy (or gal) that has the advantage, but in certain circumstances it’s obvious that weight matters (please keep this picture in mind while reading about the possible counter-trend upswing in the short run – that’s the little guy while the big guy are the powerful long-term factors). That’s exactly the case with the weight and importance of long-term signals when comparing them to the short-term ones. Surely, we could get a 1-2% upswing, but so what, if a 15% decline is just around the corner? And in particular, if it could take place right away?
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Gold vs Several Key Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.
Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q3 18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead. They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging. Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted. But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers. Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
Is Gold Under or Overpriced? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Have you heard about the Everything Bubble? Some analysts believe that after the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s, we are in the middle of a price bubble in virtually all asset classes simultaneously caused by the Fed’s unusually easy monetary policy with ultra low interest rates. Although we agree that the US central bank maintained federal funds rate too low for too long, the narrative about a dangerous bubble inflating in a wide variety of countries, industries, and assets does not make sense. The bubble means that the price of an asset deviates from the fundamental value, increasing excessively, to a much greater extent than on other markets. It should be now clear that the existence of overvalued assets necessarily means that other assets are undervalued, so there can’t be the ‘everything bubble’. Sorry, but those who wait for the total asset apocalypse might be disappointed.
Friday, November 16, 2018
Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
The pound plunged against the euro, the dollar, gold and all leading currencies today as Theresa May’s UK government appeared vulnerable to collapsing and political turmoil risked creating a hard Brexit.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
The New China and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
China has developed tremendously in recent years. But what’s next? Is the country entering the growth recession? And how it will affect the world and the gold market?
A New Chapter in China
We have not analyzed the publications of the World Gold Council for a while. Let’s make it up, starting with the newest edition of Gold Investor. The report is about China and its remarkable transformation in the context of the gold market.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Gold Oil and Commodities …Back to the Future ? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonights charts I would like to take a minute to discuss trading the three X leveraged etf’s. Leveraged etf’s aren’t for everyone as they can be very volatile. These instruments are for those that can take a bigger risk and still come out OK when they go against you. For the average investor a 1 X leveraged etf is all they can handle and that should be fine. When you start playing with the 2 X and 3 X leveraged etf’s your risk factor goes up very fast.
Placing a sell/stop in the correct place works great for the 1 X leveraged etf, but when you are in a 3 X leveraged etf setting the sell/stop is a totally different game. Very rarely do I let the original sell/stop be hit before I will exit the trade as you have to give the stock some wiggle room when you first take a position. As more information becomes available you can start to make adjustments to your sell/stop mentally. A 3 X etf can get away from you in a heartbeat so one has to pay very close attention at all times.
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Friday, November 16, 2018
Investors And Analysts Know Nothing About Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
There were several developments in the gold market last week. First, we heard of another trader who has pleaded guilty to “manipulating” the metals market. And, everyone is up in arms again about how gold was manipulated to drop from $1,921 to $1,040 during 2011-2015.
And, yes, they are all again saying “ah ha – you see, we were right.”
But, as I have said so many times before, what this trader did was akin to a paper cut in the market. And, to claim that these types of actions caused the market to drop from 2011 to 2016 is akin to claiming that a paper cut caused the market to bleed to death.
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Thursday, November 15, 2018
Is A Top Forming In Natural Gas? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent upswing in NG prices has been an incredible trade for many, yet we believe a top is now forming in Natural Gas that could catch many traders by surprise. The recent upside gap in price and upward price volatility would normally not concern long traders. They would likely view this as a tremendous success for their long NG positions, yet we believe this move is about to come to a dramatic end – fairly quickly.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Is Gold Silence Golden? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
People say that speech is silver, silence is golden. Well, not always. The recent FOMC monetary policy statement is the best example. Lets’ read out today’s article and find out why.
Nothing Changes in November
On Thursday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on November 7-8. In line with the expectations, the US central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the target range of 2 to 2.25 percent:
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Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Investors Set To Move and Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Investors in Ireland, the UK and internationally can for the first-time own gold in a secure and liquid way in accredited, professionally managed, fully insured, institutional grade vaults – Secure gold investment in Ireland for first time as global risks intensify and Dublin will compete with London as a favoured gold storage location
– Brexit will likely impact the 300bn London gold market as investors move gold to other jurisdictions including Dublin
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Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Gold Stocks vs. Gold – Cryin’ Time Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Kelsey_Williams
When will people wake up to the fact that investing in gold mining shares is not a good idea?
What are the experts seeing and thinking when they talk about the “positive outlook for mining shares”? For the life of me, I just don’t get it.
And, as far as gold stocks outperforming gold, well, just forget about it.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2018
JPMorgan Chase Trader Pleads Guilty to Gold Manipulation, Turns State's Evidence / Commodities / Market Manipulation
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver investors got a rare bit of good news on the enforcement front last week.
A trader from JPMorgan Chase pled guilty to rigging the precious metals futures markets.
John Edmonds admitted to cheating the bank’s clients and plenty of other people naive enough to expect fair treatment on the COMEX and other exchanges.
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Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Warning: Precious Metals’ Gold and Silver Prices are about to Collapse! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver just moved to its 2018 bottom. Not somewhat above it, not relatively close to it – silver’s Friday’s close of $14.14 equals the previous lowest closing price of 2018 that was formed on September 14th. That’s not yet a breakdown, but the implications are severe.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Why the End of the Longest Crude Oil Bull Market Since 2008? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the past two years, crude oil has steadily advanced, supported by global recovery. But in just 10 days, oil has posted the longest losing streak since mid-1984 – thanks to overcapacity and the Trump trade wars.
Half a year ago, crude oil prices were expected to climb from $53 per barrel in 2017 to $65 per barrel by the year-end and to remain around that level through 2019. By mid-October, crude had soared to $75 and the rise was expected to continue.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Will Crude Oil Price Find Support Near $60? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team warned of this move in Crude Oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that Oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.
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Monday, November 12, 2018
Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro.
Monday, November 12, 2018
5 Things That Precede Gold Price Major Bottoms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The recent weakness in Gold and gold mining stocks is not over. In fact, we are worried about another leg down getting underway.
If that comes to pass, we are positioned to profit from it. But I digress.
Long-term oriented investors and speculators should be aware of the near term trends but they should also be aware of the conditions that will lead to a shift from a bear market to a bull market.
Here, we focus on five factors that precede major bottoms in precious metals.
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Sunday, November 11, 2018
Gold Asks: Are US Bonds Overvalued? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“We are in a bond market bubble that’s beginning to unwind.” This is the statement of Alan Greenspan. Is he right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the US bond market and find out whether it is in bubble or not – and what does it all mean for the precious metals market.
Bond yields are in an upward trend since 2016/2017. And they hit the accelerator again last month. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 3.2 percent, the highest level since May 2011. Other yields have also increased recently: on 30-year Treasuries hit 3.40 in October, while on 5-year US government bonds jumped above 3 percent, as one can see in the chart below.
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