Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 08, 2018
Inflation Is Starting To Heat Up / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Savage
For years now analysts, and the media have been trying to convince everyone there is no inflation despite central banks massive quantitative easing programs. Of course this is ridiculous. They just choose to ignore where the inflation has manifested.
In 2008 inflation spiked in the commodity markets contributing to the severity of the last recession. One could even make a strong case inflation was the main cause of the recession. From 2011 until recently inflation has focused mostly in asset markets, especially the stock market. But it’s also appeared in healthcare, housing prices, insurance premiums, education, etc. So to claim there has been no inflation one has to willfully turn a blind eye to where the inflation is. We’ve actually had massive inflation, it’s just that it has run mostly in sectors that people don’t mind seeing inflation, namely the stock market. I think that is about to change.
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Monday, October 08, 2018
Barrick Randgold Deal Breathes New Life into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Richard_Mills
Despite having a rough summer, with a number of factors pushing gold below $1,200 an ounce (the high dollar, US economic growth, interest rate hikes, booming stock markets), the precious metal appears to be back in favor, with December gold futures closing Tuesday’s trading at $1,207 an ounce - a two-week high. In 10 minutes, Bloomberg reported, December gold contracts equal to 1.57 million ounces changed hands on the Comex in New York - almost 12 times the 100-day average volume at that time of day. The catalyst was fresh safe-haven demand owing to political uncertainty in Italy. A government official reportedly said Italy would be better off with its own currency, adding to doubts about the country’s fiscal situation. The EU has to pass Italy’s budget and many think it won’t cut the mustard.
“An IMF Financial Statistics Report reveals that Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences. And Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Mongolia has purchased 12.2 tonnes of gold so far this year.
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Monday, October 08, 2018
The Chartology of Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
Several weeks ago we looked at some resistance points for gold and silver from the short to the longer term time perspective. Below is a daily chart for gold which starts with the 2018 five point rectangle reversal pattern which broke down in May. The backtest to the underside of the five point rectangle took about five weeks to complete, forming a bearish rising wedge. From that point the impulse move down began in earnest stopping in mid July to form a small rectangle. After trading sideways for about three weeks gold broke down from that small rectangle and finally bottomed in mid August where it began a countertrend rally.
Sunday, October 07, 2018
One More Bounce for the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Harry_Dent
You know by now that I think gold is above all a commodity, and in a bubble that was more extreme than stocks… a bubble that’s been bursting since September 2011, but…Gold and bitcoin are two examples of bubbles bursting that are NOT following my bubble model as well as most. Both, thus far, are basing out at higher levels than I expected.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
How Commodities Will Perform in the 'Impending Massive Credit Crunch' / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund looks at the factors that he sees are behind a massive credit crunch and discusses how the markets could react. An enormous "sword of Damocles" hangs over all markets now. A massive liquidity drain is underway as global QE reverses into QT and rates rise against the background of immense ubiquitous crippling debt burdens. What this means is that the biggest credit crunch of all time is bearing down on us, which will involve markets crashing in the absence of bids, serious dislocation of capital markets and out of control interest rates.
This is probably the high point for Trump's presidency as the stock market enjoys its final "swansong rally" ahead of the crash, buoyed up the last of the stock buybacks before rising rates choke them off, and the dumbest of the dumb money who think that because the market has been in an uptrend for years it's going to continue.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
Gold Stocks Recovering / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The battered gold miners’ stocks are finally starting to recover after a rough few months. Their prices slid with gold in July, plummeted in a brutal forced capitulation in August, and then dropped again in an echo capitulation into mid-September. That left them at fundamentally-absurd price levels wildly disconnected from their actual profitability, leaving this sector with big mean-reversion upside ahead as it bounces back.
The leading gold-stock investment vehicle and increasingly benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. As of this week it still had $8.5b of net assets even at today’s super-depressed gold-stock prices. That dwarfs everything else in the 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF space, running 40.5x bigger than its next largest competitor! So GDX is the dominant proxy for the fortunes of the gold miners’ stocks.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
Prepare for a Gold/Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly. We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago. Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level. Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action. What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.
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Saturday, October 06, 2018
More Evidence Of Manipulation In The Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
This past week, we saw that the Bank of Nova Scotia was charged by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with multiple acts of spoofing in gold and silver futures between June 2013 and June 2016. Traders placed orders to buy or sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel the orders before execution, the CFTC said.
So, the tin-foil hat wearers are back out in full force screaming about how this market rigging has caused gold to collapse over the last seven years. Unfortunately, anyone who believes this is simply not dealing with the facts of any of the supposed “manipulation” cases. You see, believing that these manipulation cases caused the gold market to drop from is 2011 high is no different from believing that a paper cut can cause someone to bleed to death.
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Friday, October 05, 2018
Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
Gold Miners Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern? Really? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold rallied, silver rallied, and mining stocks rallied. That’s how one can summarize yesterday’s session. The volume was huge, so it appears that a major upswing has just begun. But is this really the case? As always, just because things look encouraging and the emotions are high, it doesn’t mean that anything changed. One needs to step back from the day-to-day price and volume changes and look at the factors that are in place right now without any biases. No hopes, no “feelings toward the market”, and no worries about missing the boat. Just facts and logic. Let’s start with gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Thursday, October 04, 2018
Gold and Silver Bottoming Pattern May Be in Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical expert Jack Chan updates the gold and silver charts, including what he believes to be a bottoming pattern.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Ratcheting Up the Gold Friendly COT Tension / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the most recent gold COT report and movements in the market. Once again the COT report from last Tuesday has revealed continued pressure on the already taut firing pins of the gold and silver markets with more shorts added by the Large Spec algobots and more longs/fewer shorts reported by the Commercials largely represented by the bullion banks. If it is the gold cartel that has capped rallies in the $1,350-1,375 range since August 2016, it is that same gold cartel that are actually positioned for a rally today and where the market is baffling everyone is the failure of the Crimex Criminals to launch the rally. The answer lies in the ascent of the machines in dictating direction in any and all markets. Whereas the algos have been focused on all things non-metal in recent years, they have taken to the gold and silver markets lately and are displaying phenomenal power and control in thwarting the intentions of the bullion bank cartel.
Wednesday, October 03, 2018
Thorium, Uranium’s Ugly Stepsister for Nuclear Reactor Fuel / Commodities / Nuclear Power
By: Richard_Mills
Most junior resource investors know uranium, and many got in on the action when NexGen Energy and Fission Uranium made their discoveries in the Athabasca Basin of Saskatchewan, the region with the highest grades of uranium in the world. Smart, or lucky, shareholders of NXE enjoyed a cumulative share price rise of around 430% between 2014 and 2016, while Fission Energy - famous for its Patterson Lake South property that yielded the open-pittable Triple R deposit - jumped from 91 cents in November 2013 to $1.62 a share in April 2014, for a gain of 78%.
Uranium is the fuel needed to create the nuclear reaction that can either create nuclear power or nuclear weapons. To make nuclear fuel from uranium ore, the uranium is first extracted from the rock, then enriched with the uranium-235 isotope, before being made into pellets that are loaded into assemblies of nuclear fuel rods. In a nuclear reactor, several hundred fuel assemblies containing thousands of small pellets of uranium oxide are in the reactor core. The nuclear chain reaction that creates energy starts when U-235 splits or “fissions”, which produces a lot of heat in a controlled environment.
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Tuesday, October 02, 2018
The Silver Exclamation Mark / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Rallying mining stocks? Forget about them. Silver is the new cool kid in the neighborhood. Having rallied by almost 50 cents in just one day, silver stole the spotlight and seems to be ready to move much higher… Or much lower. Does anyone still fall for silver’s fake rallies? Based on the size of the rally and the corresponding volume, it certainly seems to be the case. But you don’t have to fall for it – that is if you prefer to analyze the market’s emotionality instead of acting on it. It’s not an easy thing to do, because each silver rally seems to be “it”. But what’s easy and what’s profitable is rarely the same thing.
Today’s analysis will be quite specific, because we already wrote about “the silver signal” several times in the past several days. We did emphasize our take on the silver market more than once, because the market itself provided us with the signal more than once.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Gold and Silver: Bottoming is a Process / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last Friday we examined the fact that gold has now fallen 6 months in a row. Historically, this suggests that gold is at a short term bottom.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Current State / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018.
Firstly a recap of my forecast for the crude oil price for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
Gold: New Bull Or Same Old Bear? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Savage
There are two schools of thought right now, and both sides are firmly convinced they are correct.
The bullish case: Gold started a new cyclical bull market in late 2015.
The bearish case: The bounce out of the 2015 bottom was just a counter trend bear market rally, and at best gold is stuck in a long sideways channel similar to the 1980-2001 period.
While I have to admit there is a lot of compelling evidence to support the bearish scenario I’m not convinced that is correct.
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Monday, October 01, 2018
The Cannabis Arbitrage Deal of the Decade / Commodities / Cannabis
By: OilPrice_Com
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Gold And Silver – Still Weak, Qrtly, Mthly, Wkly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Michael_Noonan
We did an interview with Rory from The Daily Coin, last week, and we mentioned how crypto currencies could be problematic for gold and silver. Their existence could replace the massive fiat debt and preclude any reason for gold and silver to rally. You can find the interview here.
There has been a lot of discussion of a possible reset whereby gold and silver would eventually replace the failing fiats, and that potential scenario was how $10,000/oz gold and $400/oz silver came about, for the most part.
The pertinent question is, which country would want to have a gold and silver backed currency which would severely restrict the ability to issue increased amounts of the currency? Also, every other nation would want to buy and take delivery of any and all available gold and silver. That would not fly, at all. Recall how Nixon closed the gold window back in the 1970s.
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
Gold Investors: It Is Time for a Logic Lesson / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses distortions in the markets. Here is a question for any and all of you that have ever purchased a lottery ticket or played the slots or bet on a horse: If you had proof that the outcomes were all rigged, would you still play? If someone showed you a video of pit bosses stacking decks or tampering with dice, would you ever enter that establishment again? If your wife or mother or employer knew that you would constantly blow your paychecks in a rigged casino, would you ever be able to face them? The answer to all of the above-mentioned scenarios is a resounding "NO!" Yet millions of people (albeit that figure is rapidly shrinking) are still committing many hundreds of millions of dollars every week to the Crimex Casino, which has now proven that every single input into determining prices for gold and silver (Bitcoin, too) is completely controlled by the bullion banks, the Crimex bosses and the regulators.