Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, February 02, 2017
American Fracking Companies Keeping Their DUCs in a Row / Commodities / Articles
OPEC producers are cutting production… or so they say.And in addition, several non-OPEC producers, like Russia, are also cutting production. If history is any guide we could do away with the titles and simply call the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and the all rest, the Energy Liars’ Club.
They often say one thing and then do another.
Even Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister noted that OPEC members have a history of lying to each other. I don’t care how they treat each other. I’m only interested in how their actions – not their words – affect the money in my pocket.
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Thursday, February 02, 2017
Buy Gold Because of Uncertainty Not Doomsday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
- Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight
- World not been as close to self-destruction since 1953
- Threat of nuclear powers, climate change and technology all considered heightened risks
- First time the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists have singled out an individual – President Trump
- Doom-mongering is arguably distracting and uncertainties should be more considered
- Gold and silver perform well during times of uncertainty and provide a safe-haven
- Wall Street’s largest fund managers have bet on gold in face of growing uncertainty
Thursday, February 02, 2017
The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started / Commodities / Crude Oil
It’s been a month now that investors and analysts have been closely watching two main drivers for oil prices: how OPEC is doing with the supply-cut deal, and how U.S. shale is responding to fifty-plus-dollar oil with rebounding drilling activity. Those two main factors are largely neutralizing each other, and are putting a floor and a cap to a price range of between $50 and $60.
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Thursday, February 02, 2017
Weaker US$ Could Send Gold & Gold Stocks to Higher Targets / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017
Gold has underperformed both in nominal and real terms. Last week it formed a bearish reversal in nominal terms and against foreign currencies. However, the good news for bulls is the US Dollar Index lost support at 100, due to the Trump administration’s tough talk against Germany (and the Euro). Couple that with no movement from the Fed and the greenback should continue its decline, thereby juicing the current rebound in Gold and especially gold stocks.
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Wednesday, February 01, 2017
Why Alternative Facts and Cashless Will Benefit Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Why gold will benefit from the alternative fact of the cashless society
- Alternative facts prevail in the European Commission’s calls for cash controls
- Terrorism is blamed for the need to control cash
- Evidence shows criminals find alternative ways to finance activities
- Citizens continue to want and to use cash in day-to-day life
- Cashless society is being used to force through other ‘agendas’
- Gold and silver will be used as savers are forced to hold assets outside of the financial system
Wednesday, February 01, 2017
Gold Price Set For Very Bullish 2017, Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
I am very bullish on the gold price in 2017 and while the year has got off to a cracking start I believe we need to see a test of the recent low to lay a stronger foundation from which to launch even higher.
Let's review the charts beginning with the long term picture.
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Wednesday, February 01, 2017
Stock Market Melt-up Brings Volatility to Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Our recent analysis bases on a previous report of the potential for a further run in the US markets based on a number of technical and fundamental factors leads to the question of "what could happen with Gold and Silver". A broad US market rally may put some pressure on the metals markets initially, but, in our opinion, the increase in volatility and uncertainty will likely prompt more potential for upward price action in precious metals.
As with most things in the midst of uncertainty and transition, the US Presidential election has caused many traders to rethink positions and potential. As foreign elections continue to play out, wild currency moves are starting to become more of a standard for volatility. Combine this with a new US President and a repositioning of US global and local objectives and we believe we are setting up for one of the most expansive moves in recent years for the US general markets and the metals markets. This week, alone, we have seen a flurry of action in DC and the US markets broke upward on news of the Dakota Pipeline and other Executive actions.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2017
Gold Price is One Tweet Away from New Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
President Trump's recent comments on Mexico and building a wall should give gold investors optimism, says Daniel Ameduri, cofounder of Future Money Trends.
President Trump's recent open display on Twitter regarding Mexico and the wall should give gold investors a surge of optimism.
Over the next year, it's highly likely that we will see trade wars erupt with the U.S. and several of its major trading partners, like Mexico, China and the EU.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2017
Cycles for Gold and USD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Did Gold find a Trading Cycle Low last Friday? Perhaps. Silver was definitely leading the way as it often does at bottoms. But Silver also delivers many head-fakes and with the USD is due for a new Trading Cycle bounce, Gold will likely move lower next week.
My first chart on the USD, shows it is deep in its timing band to find a DCL or short term Trading Cycle Low. Thursday may well have been the TC Low I was looking for. If so, to confirm a new Trading Cycle the USD should close above the 10ema and then test/break my Red down trend cycle line.
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Monday, January 30, 2017
Manganese Is Energy Critical / Commodities / Metals & Mining
In 1917 the War Industries Board (WIB) noted that the United States was deficient in certain minerals of great importance to war making and self defense. A pre-World War II list of materials contained a total of 29 materials: 14 were strategic materials that ‘must be based entirely or in substantial part on sources outside the United States.' There were 15 critical materials that would be easier to source, perhaps even domestically, than the strategic materials.
The 1939 Strategic Materials Act authorized US$100 million to purchase strategic raw materials for a stockpile of 42 strategic and critical materials needed for wartime production.
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Monday, January 30, 2017
Trump's Trade Policy to Drive Price Inflation and Gold Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Donald Trump's trade policy is likely to spark higher consumer price inflation, and that has ramifications for gold and silver prices. Regardless of where investors stand regarding the president's plan to make Mexico "pay" for the border wall, if he is successful in getting Congress to impose a hefty tax on imports it will mean higher prices for things. A tax on goods from China could be even more inflationary.
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Monday, January 30, 2017
The No.1 Mining Stock For 2017 / Commodities / Metals & Mining
On January 4, 2017, the biggest manufacturing development since Henry Ford’s Model T assembly line was powered on...
And investors should pay careful attention...
Because, with this quiet flip of a switch, the energy markets have now been transformed.
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Monday, January 30, 2017
Is the Gold Market Finally Ready to Breakout? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
If pleasures are greatest in anticipation, just remember that this is also true of trouble. - Elbert HubbardThroughout 2016, we stated we did not expect much from Gold, and we stuck to this forecast, even though many experts went out of their way to report that Gold was ready to soar to the Moon or even to the next Galaxy. In fact, since 2011, we have continuously said that until the Trend turns positive, it would be best to play other lucrative markets, such as the general equities market, the US dollar, etc. During this time several experts stated that Gold was ready to surge and some issued insane targets ranging from $20,000-$50,000. Under no circumstance can we ever see Gold going to $20,000 or $50,000 and even if drank a whole bottle of scotch or any other toxic compound it would still be very hard to visualise such a target. Issuing such targets is perfect for fear mongering, and we find that tactic to be unpleasant and distasteful.
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Monday, January 30, 2017
Gold Mining Stocks Could Halve In 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
Fed Hikes and Their Impact on Gold
When the first hike was delivered, along with the intention to deliver 3-4 more, gold prices were hovering above $1000. Gold now sits over $100 higher than it was at the time of the first hike, having rallied to $1375 when hikes were taken off the table. In our view one hike will see gold test $1000, two will see $1000 break, and three hikes would see $720 tested.
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Monday, January 30, 2017
Analysis Of Gold Is Much Ado About Nothing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Any analysis of gold must have a correct premise. And terms used in that analysis must be clearly understood. For example…
“Are you pro-gold?” Just exactly what does that mean? Is it a political or moral issue? In other words, does someone’s position on gold indicate ideology or lifestyle choice? Can a political liberal be pro-gold? And if someone answers the original question in the affirmative, does that mean they are anti-something else?
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Saturday, January 28, 2017
Silver Lining of the 'Violent, Stunning, Historic Collapse of Palladium' and How to Profit from It / Commodities / Palladium
Palladium took a dive this week, and Chen Lin, author of the popular newsletter What Is Chen Buying, What Is Chen Selling?, explains what happened and how investors can profit from the drop.
This is President Trump's first week in office and a huge week for the stock market. However, not many noticed the palladium futures market experienced the "violent, stunning, historic collapse," according to the well-known market commentator Dennis Gartman, the "commodity king." Let's drill down to exactly what happened.
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Friday, January 27, 2017
Silver Stocks’ New Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher in this young new year, putting the Trumphoria general-stock rally to shame. Following its fourth-quarter drubbing, this tiny contrarian sector is embarking on a major new upleg as traders return. Silver-stock uplegs tend to grow to massive proportions, and silver-mining fundamentals remain strong today. So odds are the silver stocks are going to power far higher in 2017.
Because silver stocks aren’t widely followed, most investors and speculators are unaware of this sector’s stellar upside potential. Silver mining is a challenging business both geologically and economically, so there aren’t many primary silver miners out there. And their stocks’ collective market capitalization is small, a rounding error compared to the broader stock markets. That doesn’t leave much room for funds to buy.
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Friday, January 27, 2017
Dow 20K, US Debt $20 Trillion, Trump and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
by Jan Skoyles, Editor Mark O’Byrne
In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 20,000 earlier this week for the first time in its 132 year history to much media fanfare.
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Friday, January 27, 2017
Basic Materials Stocks Sector Investing: Real Stuff Prices Are Rising / Commodities / Resources Investing
Tonight I would like to update the Basic Materials sector as this area now looks like it's ready to resume its bull market. Also with the stock markets breaking out today, especially the INDU, this adds another layer of confirmation that the breakout is the real deal. As we've discussed previously there are many big cap Dow stocks that make up the XLB, Basic Materials fund, and with the INDU making a new all time high today there will be some individual components making new all time highs as well.
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Friday, January 27, 2017
The Fed and Gold in 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
As everyone already knows, the Fed has finally hiked its interest rates for the second time in a decade and for the first time since December 2015, when it ended the zero interest rate policy. The chart below shows the current level of the effective federal funds rate after the recent move.
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