Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Crude Oil, US National Debt, and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the following chart of monthly crude oil prices. In the past 26 years crude oil prices have crashed 65%, 59%, 54%, and 76%. The current crash is about 51% so far.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Gold Price Still In Bear Cycle? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: David_Banister

GOLD- Well, not a merry Christmas for Gold buyers just yet. We have said in our TMTF forecast service to watch 1190 as KEY support and 1241 would also need to be taken out on a closing basis before we could confirm a new uptrend in Gold and the end to the 5 wave bear cycle. Not quite yet, and in fact in my stock service we have avoided Gold stocks entirely even with the recent temptations to get long because Gold to us is key. If we are not over 1241 then we are not buyers of Gold equities, plain and simple. With 5000 stocks to choose from, why not stick with the sectors that are in the stronger uptrends and avoid those mired in the mud like Gold? For example you could be looking at Security stocks given all the cyber attacks worldwide that are only getting worse. Gold is money as we all know, but a downtrend is a downtrend. Trust what you see, not what you think for best results.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Make No Mistake, the Crude Oil Price Slump Is Going to Hurt the US Too / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

If you only paid attention to the mainstream media, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the US is going to get away from the collapse in oil prices scot free. According to popular belief, America is even going to be a net winner from cheaper oil prices, because they will act like a tax cut for US consumers. Or so we are told.

In reality, though, many of the jobs the US energy boom has created in the last few years are now at risk, and their loss could drag the economy into a recession.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Gold Price Outlook For 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldSilverWorlds

What will gold do in 2015 is a question that is top of mind of many gold investors, particularly during this period of the year. We reached out to gold analyst Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Managing Partner and fund manager at Incrementum AG in Liechtenstein, author of the In Gold We Trust reports, to get his taken on the outlook for gold for 2015. His expectations for 2015 are summarized by the 10 charts in this article.

This year was cleary a mixed bag for the precious metals. On the one hand, gold stabilized and confirmed its trading range which was formed after last year’s price crash. Another positive fact is the relative strength of the price of gold in most major currencies non-U.S. Dollar, as evidenced by comparing the first two charts below (the first chart, Euro gold, looks relatively more solid than Dollar gold). On the other hand, silver and the miners went lower and broke below their trading range. That is clearly disinflationary, and disfinlation has been the main message that the precious metals complex has signaled in the past year. That is also the baseline for gold’s outlook for 2015.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Big Rally for Gold Junior Miners in January 2015 After Tax Loss Selling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jeb_Handwerger

The Holiday Season is here and a volatile 2014 is coming to a close. Be prepared to pick up quality situations during tax loss selling season and benefit off of a powerful January Effect rally.

Recently we heard the comments from Fed Chairwoman Yellen which appeared to be dovish.

Crashing oil prices and a rising US dollar will put a halt to any interest rate increases from the Fed. Weak Holiday sales and increasing unemployment in 2015 are a possibility especially as I expect layoffs in the once booming fracking sector.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Get Ready for the Gold Stocks Consolidation Wave 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

Andrew Kaip, managing director of mining equity research at BMO Capital Markets, says the stark reality is that the precious metals sector is only part way through a down cycle and that structural issues will result in a fresh phase of consolidation. He adds that the small to intermediate producers will lead the consolidation charge. In this interview with The Gold Report, Kaip suggests some suitors and prime acquisition candidates.

The Gold Report: In late November, BMO Chief Economist Doug Porter warned that interest rates could move higher sooner rather than later in 2015. What's your 2015 outlook for gold given that information?

Monday, December 22, 2014

Gold Prices After The End of QE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The performance of gold obviously depends on the U.S. economic condition and the Fed's future actions. In the short run, the end of QE3 will most likely not change anything and gold will most likely decline on a dollar rally. It is likely to last as long the U.S. central bank credibility is at all-time heights. This is because gold can be seen as the reciprocal of central bank credibility. Thus, when central bank credibility is at a peak, gold is in the dumps. The end of QE3 could even strengthen the belief about the strength of the U.S. economy. After all, Fed would not halt the quantitative easing if the economy was not strong, right? Just look at the economic numbers, say the pundits. Unemployment went down, while GDP grew faster than expected in the third quarter, and oil is historically cheap, which will additionally boost the U.S. economy.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Damage Caused By the Oil Bear Will Spread Far and Wide / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Michael E. Lewitt writes: Oil prices continued to fall this week but stock markets shrugged off the disarray this continued to cause in global markets after Janet Yellen whispered soothing words in their ears after the Fed's last meeting of the year on Wednesday. Mrs. Yellen has become a "bull whisperer" – fearful of upsetting the equity market, she cloaks her words in indirection and equivocation in an effort to keep them calm as she prays for an economic lift-off that will take her institution off the hook.

Unfortunately, her patient is likely to be very disappointed, for it would take an economic miracle the likes of which hasn't been seen in this country since the years after the Second World War to deal with the mountain of existing debt and future liabilities that are going to bury us.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Oil Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oh, that sweet black gold won’t leave us alone, will it? West Texas Intermediate went through some speedbumps Friday, but ended over +5%, though still only at $57. Think them buyers know something we don’t? I don’t either. I see people covering lousy bets. And PPT (and that’s not the one we used to spray our crops with).

The damage done must be epic by now, throughout the financial system, but we’re not hearing much about that yet, are we? We will in time, not to worry. Everyone’s invested in oil, and big time too, and they’ve all just become party to a loss of about half of what both oil itself and oil stocks were worth just this summer.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Gold And Silver Nothing Is Ever As It Seems And No Respite For PMs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

An eminent collapse of the US fiat petrodollar? China and Russia, with their enormous build-up of physical gold over the last several years, waiting in the wings to lead a new gold-backed currency? The growing BRICS alliance to unseat the elite's Western NWO and its banking system?

A growing likelihood on the first question, and no and no to the latter two questions. In fact, the elites are probably doing more to destroy the fiat Federal Reserve "dollar" than any other group or alliance. There has been talk about the US destroying the dollar for at least the past four years. Kyle Bass even made the pronouncement whereby a senior Obama administration official told him, "We're just going to kill the dollar." That is exactly what is happening and coming from "inside information."

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Bullish Reversal in Gold Miners but Metals Remain in Question / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold and silver stocks have put in a bullish weekly reversal but Gold and Silver have not confirmed it. The interplay between the metals and the shares has been complicated in recent weeks. Hopefully this missive will make some sense of it as the two groups are sending mixed signals.

Gold and Silver are charted below in weekly candle format. Before this week the metals looked bullish. Each tested support and rebounded strongly towards resistance. However, both metals gave back much of the recent gains. Bulls would say they are correcting and still in position to test resistance. Bears would say the metals failed to reach resistance and are headed to new lows.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Important Development for Bitcoin Traders / Commodities / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

Briefly: short speculative positions, stop-loss at $332, take-profit at $275.

We read an interesting piece on Tech Crunch on how 2014 was difficult for Bitcoin:

Overall creation of bitcoin wallets is up, which is an indication of continued interest from potential buyers. Wallets are files that contain private keys used to unlock the bitcoins within the tool so that you can spend them. It's akin to a physical wallet that holds credit cards.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Gold Stocks to Shine in 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks have suffered a miserable few years, becoming a laughingstock even among contrarians.  But this despised sector’s seemingly-endless downward spiral has left gold stocks vastly undervalued relative to gold, which drives their profits.  The fundamentally-absurd disconnect between gold-stock price levels and gold can’t last.  And it sure looks ready to end, making 2015 the year gold stocks shine again.

Any stock is a fractional ownership stake in a corporation, entitling shareholders to participate in that company’s profits.  So over time, any stock price ultimately reflects a reasonable multiple of these very underlying earnings.  If a stock price falls too low relative to corporate profits, investors step in to buy shares cheap bidding their prices higher.  And the opposite is true if a stock grows too expensive relative to earnings.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Gold and Silver Relative Calm in Wild Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This week has been extremely volatile for oil, currencies and stock markets. Against this background gold and silver have drifted sideways to slightly lower, which given the dollar's strong performance is almost a positive result.

Along with a collapsing oil price on Monday and Tuesday, the Russian ruble fell from 58 to the USD on Monday to 77 the following day. It was clear that Russian oligarchs were getting out of rubles as fast as they could, hence the steep fall. By yesterday things had calmed down and the ruble was back to the 60.4 this morning. There was a slight frisson of excitement over the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, to be followed by Quadruple Witching today. Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock options all expire on the third Friday of December. The result is the Dow 30 Index rose by 4.3% between Tuesday's opening and last night's close on an enormous bear squeeze.

Friday, December 19, 2014

US Dollar and the Gold Fairy Tale / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Grant Williams writes: On Christmas Eve 1979, 27 days before I became a teenager, in a surburban street in Moseley in Britain’s West Midlands, a group of musicians put the finishing touches on their debut album.

The musicians — Brian Travers, Astro, James Brown (no, not that one), Earl Falconer, Norman Hassan, Mickey Virtue, and twins Ali and Robin Campbell — had a unique approach to the music business.

Eighteen months prior to completing their first album, Ali Campbell and Travers had plastered the streets of Birmingham with leaflets promoting the band, which had taken its name from the document issued to people claiming unemployment benefits from the UK government’s Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS). The name of the form — and thus the band — was UB40.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Why Russia Will Halt the Ruble’s Slide and Keep Pumping Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The harsh reality is that U.S. shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians, since their costs of production are much higher, says Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp.

Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.

Friday, December 19, 2014

The Commodities Market Is Not Dying, It’s Just Hibernating / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Submissions

Nicholas Maithya writes: The price of Gold plunged massively in 2014, especially during the second half of the year and based on the current market sentiment, there are fears that things could get worse over the next few quarters. Other popular commodities like Silver and Oil also followed the same trajectory, with Oil in particular trading at some of the lowest levels in recent history. The various ETFs associated with these assets have also followed the same trend as investors continue to shift investments to the equities market.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Oil prices are struggling to stabilize in the wake of what some are calling a “black swan” event.

It refers to a theory popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician.

A black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Gold Price Building Foundations For Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Austin_Galt

Gold has been steadily trending up since its early November low. The Swiss gold vote was expected so it was no surprise to see price turn back up after the initial dip in price. I still believe gold is on the cusp of a much greater rally so let's see where things currently stand.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by
                            Sun Tzu, The Art of War, fifth century BC

When growth slows in capital markets, the bankers’ daisy-chain of credit and debt breaks down; setting in motion defaulting debt which ends in recession, deflation or, in extreme cases, a deflationary depression.