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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, October 24, 2021

To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Evergrande is on the brink of bankruptcy. Will gold prices collapse together with the real estate developer or benefit from its default?

Generals are always prepared to fight the last war, while economists are always prepared to fight the last recession. But what if the next economic crisis doesn’t start in the US financial sector, but in China’s real estate?

Naturally, I refer to Evergrande, a Chinese developer with total liabilities of more than $300 billion — around 2% of China’s GDP! A default of one of China’s largest and most indebted companies could entail significant repercussions for the global economy.
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Commodities

Saturday, October 23, 2021

Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ latest quarterly earnings season will soon get underway, with their full Q3’21 results due out by mid-November.  These fundamental reports are invaluable to traders, revealing how companies are actually faring operationally and financially.  Despite Fed-tightening fears hammering gold and gold stocks last quarter, the miners are likely to collectively report outstanding results further lowering their valuations.

After a rough stretch technically this past summer, gold-stock sentiment remains down in the dumps.  This battered sector has few bulls left, with the vast majority of speculators and investors either ignoring the gold miners or despising them.  This overwhelmingly-bearish psychology resulted from a sharp gold-stock selloff between early June to late September.  That trying time tested the mettle of contrarian traders.

The gold miners weren’t market pariahs earlier this year.  Their leading sector benchmark, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF, powered 28.4% higher in just 2.5 months between early March to mid-May.  That solid young upleg was starting to win some converts, with herd sentiment shifting back towards bullish.  Unfortunately that promising start was torpedoed by extreme gold-futures selling on Fed-tightening fears.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 23, 2021

Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

You see, there is all this noise out there. It comes mostly from inflationists touting gold in the same breath as copper, as oil, and as commodities of all flavors (and aside from gold and to a degree, silver, those flavors are cyclical).

But you also see, gold is counter-cyclical in its best suit. You see on this monthly chart that gold has been forming its Handle to the bullish Cup ever since the inflation trades came to the fore in the summer of 2020. Therefore, you see that those touting gold and inflation together have been wrong for over a year now (and counting).

For those dealing in reality instead of dogma, gold is a candidate to break the Handle at any time. Then it would be off to the target at 3000+ over the course of a year or more. But reality holds another option as well, and that is to finish the Handle making lower.

So why not tune out the perma-pompoms in real time, realize that the thing is bullish, but the trigger is either coming sooner or later? We are doing that more focused work in NFTRH and associated updates every week and will be on the spot when the proper signals engage.

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Commodities

Friday, October 22, 2021

Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Kicking the can down the road is the new national pastime. Every time the government’s bills come due, officials at the Treasury Department find creative ways of paying them with money they don’t have.

One measure of just how overextended the United States has become financially is the debt to GDP ratio. For most of the country’s history, excluding temporary wartime blips, net general government debt tended to be less than 50% of the economy.

As recently as the early 1970s, debt as a percentage of GDP came in at under 25%. By the early 1980s, it grew to over 30% and fiscal hawks became concerned. In the 1990s, it climbed to over 40% and concern started morphing into alarm.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 21, 2021

Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation accelerated again in September, and gold prices (finally!) reacted positively. Bad news: the rally was short-lived.

Unfortunately, I was right. One month ago, when commenting on the CPI readings for August, I wrote that inflation “doesn’t have to go away anytime soon” and that the economic developments suggest that “inflation isn’t disappearing just yet.” And here we are, one month later, with inflation accelerating again.

Indeed, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after increasing 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 0.2% in September from 0.1% in the preceding month.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

“Gold going nowhere” seems to be a reasonable description of recent price action in the metals markets.

Below is a daily chart of GLD for the past year…

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

What’s the price level exit for the black gold?

The new front month contract (as we switched now to Dec’21) for WTI Crude Oil futures closed the week at $82 per barrel on Friday (Oct. 15th).

Fundamentally, nothing seems to be able to stop, in the short term, the surge in crude oil prices which continued to rise on Friday amid concerns over supply, since the WTI hit a new high in almost seven years.

In addition, the slight decline of the US dollar may signify a more marked optimism of the markets in the perspectives of a gradual recovery of the global economy.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Mining stocks were picked up by investors in the latest bullish wave. But these bad performers may be dumped just as quickly as they were bought.

After the HUI Index rallied back above the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, a new bull market for mining stocks has finally begun. Or has it? Well, after an identical development occurred in 2000, the HUI Index soon invalidated the breakout (and once again confirmed the breakdown) and a sharp decline followed.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets / Commodities / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

A big week for precious metals markets as inflation pressures push consumer prices to painful new heights.

On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that inflation at the wholesale level is up 8.6% from a year ago. That’s the steepest annual advance since the data started being reported.

Of course, Americans who have shopped at a grocery store recently or tried to rent or buy a car don’t need to read a government report to discover that prices are surging. In many respects, inflation is even worse than reported officially.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time / Commodities / Copper

By: Gary_Tanashian

Copper makes the headlines, but GYX has been bullish all along; gold awaits its time as the message from metals land is bullish, risk ‘on’ and cyclical

While copper went through its correction we have been noting each week in NFTRH that the Industrial Metals index, GYX had never aborted its bullish stance. Trends remained up and the index price held the SMA 50’s intermediate trend all the while copper (CPER, which I hold, in lower panel) worked through its summer correction.

The Industrial Metals are a primary indicator of cyclical inflation and by extension, economic reflation.

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Commodities

Monday, October 18, 2021

Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The battered gold stocks are bouncing hard, blasting higher over the past couple weeks!  That’s despite the Fed still looking to soon start slowing the pace of its epic money printing.  Fed-tightening fears had weighted heavily on the precious-metals realm since June.  Gold stocks’ sharp rally confirms they have started mean reverting much higher after withering capitulation selling, portending massive gains coming.

As a professional speculator and newsletter guy for over two decades now, herd sentiment never ceases to amaze me.  The vast majority of traders have no perspective, just a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality on the markets.  That foolish self-imposed myopia greatly limits their gains, all but guaranteeing they will fail to buy low then sell high.  Succumbing to popular greed and fear usually leads to the opposite.

The leading gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle remains the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF.  Its price trends reflect prevailing gold-stock psychology.  Between mid-May to late September, the major gold stocks per GDX dropped 27.1% in 4.4 months.  Nearly all those demoralizing losses accrued across just several brief episodes.  And they were all triggered by heavy gold-futures selling on Fed-tightening fears.

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Commodities

Monday, October 18, 2021

Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Strong words, I know. Can I back them up? Well, what we see now – looking at various markets – does indeed look like the start of gold’s end


– The Oracle in Matrix Revolutions, 2003

The counter-trend rally has probably just ended, and the final big downswing has probably just started. This “beginning” of the final downswing is, in my opinion, the beginning of the final part of the prolonged sideways trend in gold that started in 2011. In the case of silver and mining stocks, that’s likely the final part of the decline that started back then.

These are strong words – I know. Let’s see if I can back them up.

First of all, I’ve been writing about the analogy between 2013 and now for many weeks now, and you can read about these analogies in this week’s flagship analysis. This key link remains intact. The charts given below confirm that from the short-term point of view.

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Commodities

Monday, October 18, 2021

Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As precious metals traders have waited out this extended sideways/downward price contraction in price over the past 14+ months, a very broad Pennant/Flag price formation is nearing an APEX level which suggests Gold may begin a new rally phase over the next 60+ days. Support near $1675 is a critical price level that has been tested three times over the past 8 months. The true APEX of the Pennant/Flag price formation will be reached near November 15, 2021 – nearly 30 days before the US Debt Ceiling issue will become another big issue in Washington DC.

Gold Price Flag Initiated After The $1675 Level Based In March 2021

Let’s start with this Gold Daily Chart. I’ve drawn an upper line from the peak price level, in August 2020, across the recent highs in June 2021. Additionally, I’ve drawn a lower line from the lows near September 2020 across a series of price levels that are acting as support. These two major price channels have converged into a Pennant/Flag type of price formation recently.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 17, 2021

The Gold Price And Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

An understanding of the relationship between between the gold price and inflation requires historical observation and factual understanding. Below are three specific statements that are rooted in historical fact…

1)  GOLD IS REAL MONEY

Lots of things have been used as money during five thousand years of recorded history.  Only gold has stood the test of time. It has earned its role as real money because it is the only thing which meets the three specific criteria for money: a measure of value, a medium of exchange, and a store of value.

Gold is and has been easily incorporated into recognizable forms and amounts for use within various standards of weight and measure. Also, gold is scarce, malleable, indestructible and beautiful.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 17, 2021

Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Falling oil demand and bearish US inventories are not of any good to WTI investors. However, a deeper slide might be a great place to enter the trade…

Fundamental Analysis

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has downgraded its estimate of world oil demand for 2021. The demand has been lower than expected so far despite strong prospects for the end of the year.

In fact, in its monthly report, the cartel estimates that oil demand will rebound by 5.82 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, while it forecast 5.96 mb/d last month.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger decries last week's manipulations in the silver market. Anyone schooled in the Canadian educational system in the 1960s is by default familiar with William Shakespeare’s famous play Hamlet about a Danish prince that seeks revenge upon his uncle who was believed to have murdered his father to seize the Danish throne. As students forced to utilize a learning method called “rote,” we had to memorize literally the entire scene where the ghost of the murdered king utters those immortal words “Murder most foul.” Claimed to be the “most-filmed” of all literary works, Hamlet was also the genesis of Bob Dylan’s 17-minute-long ballad whose topic was JFK’s assassination in Dallas in November 1963, an event virtually every baby-boomer remembers vividly.

"Last Wednesday, traders watched an aberration, a deformity in the principles of “best price possible.”

They should also add September 29, 2021, to the list of notable murders because the victim this time was the integrity of the Comex trading arena (or “theater” in honor of Willie Shakespeare). To an even greater degree, it marked the final death of any respect or reverence for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) because between the Crimex “exchange” and the CFTC, the rare remaining believers in free-market capitalism were led to slaughter by a mob of hedge funds that decided to take full and blatant advantage of the lack of regulatory oversight in order to pad their bonus pools the second-to-last trading day of the third quarter of 2021.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?

QE Infinity

While I’ve warned on several occasions that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the latter now wants to provide more QE once it concludes QE. To explain, with the ECB’s PEPP program set to expire at the end of March 2022, the central bank is increasingly worried about a bond market sell-off. And with sluggish Eurozone growth, exorbitant sovereign debt and a lack of fiscal impulse increasing the ECB’s anxiety, officials are studying “alternatives” to suppress interest rates in the Eurozone’s most debt-ridden countries.

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Commodities

Friday, October 08, 2021

Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Armored vehicle-enabled soldiers and the designers who build them understand that a main battle tank must balance three critical elements in order to "complete the mission."

This has been true conceptually since the time of David and Goliath, the Three Hundred Spartans at Thermopylae, with Alexander the Greats' elite Silver Shields, and tank battles in four Israeli wars.

As an analogy for those who acquire and hold precious metals, it offers a close fit to their own ability to "complete the financial mission" of asset protection and growth.

First, a main battle tank must have superior firepower, being able to reliably counter and defeat its adversaries on the field of battle.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 07, 2021

Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger links debt and wolf packs in this exploration of the effects that the troubled Chinese company will have on gold.

When I first launched the GGMA Advisoryservice in January 2020, the very first Forecast Issue dealt with the globe's number one ailment, and it was not then, and is not today, related to mankind's physical health but rather its financial health. The word that kept resonating throughout that issue was debt.

If the global financial system was a human body, debt would be the fatty tissue that surrounds and clogs our organs, while recessions would be the fasting that rids the body of type 2 diabetes, obesity and depression. The problem that I identified as early as 2008 was that those that would manage our lives (whether elected or unelected) carry a belief system that holds that the best cure for obesity is a bowl of chicken noodle soup followed by six Big Macs and a big slice of apple pie.

"Debt default in tough times is the economic wolf pack that culls the economy of inefficient businesses and excesses."

In other words, it has been debt that has caused the past two major financial upheavals, and both involved the unprecedented creation of mind-boggling amounts of debt in order to avoid the natural cleansing of debt that occurs during economic downturns.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 06, 2021

Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Rambus_Chartology

Lets start with the BPGDM, Gold miners bullish percent chart which has just made a lower low along with the GDX on top. If you recall I was looking for some kind of divergence between the 2 which hasn’t happened yet red arrows on right side of the chart. There is no doubt that the BPGDM is trading down toward the low end of its range between 100 on top and zero on the bottom. It would be nice to see the GDX on top trade back above the 2016 horizontal S&R line at 30.50.

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