Friday, October 11, 2024
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 3 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Monday, September 30, 2024
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
Stock Market October Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Brief - 30th Sept 2024 - 5am UK Time
S&P FOMO's to new all time high which is against the seasonal trend for a down Sept, which is good in that it is the focus of my next analysis that allows one to determine what follows an UP Sept and it's derivatives for what it means for not just the next few months but for the whole of 2925. Preliminary analysis suggests to expect a strong Q4 and a bullish 2025 which will be the third full year of the stocks bull market, yes that's right those FOMO buying to push the S&P to a new all time high are TWO YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY! The true smart money was FOMO catching those falling knives into the October 2022 lows as I stated at the time your best buys will be your most painful to do!
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Monday, September 30, 2024
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars / Politics / Protectionism
By: Richard_Mills
This week Donald Trump said he would hit John Deere with a 200% tariff if the agricultural/ construction equipment manufacturer made good on plans to move production to Mexico.
The Republican presidential nominee has frequently said he would punish automakers with a monster tariff if they move to Mexico, but according to Reuters this is the first time he has threatened John Deere.
The company earlier this year announced it was laying off hundreds of employees in the US Midwest and increasing production capacity in Mexico. The decision has upset workers and political leaders, and pushed the issue of tariffs onto the campaign agenda.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Gold might be losing out to stocks when it comes to headlines. But, the precious metal also just hit all-time highs and did it in style -- rocketing 35% in seven months.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Richard_Mills
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points boosted US stocks and has some observers wondering whether we are gliding towards an “everything rally”.
CNN reported on Friday that investors were moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks. The S&P 500 on Thursday marked its 42nd record-high close in 2024, while on Wednesday, the Dow chalked up its 31st record high of the year. All three major stock indexes were on pace for a positive week.
Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital told CNBC the current environment of economic growth and interest rates resembles the early days of the 1982 bull market, the first 10 months of which the stock market gained 107%.
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Monday, September 23, 2024
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
No one wants to sell their home and then be forced to re-mortgage their next property at a much higher rate, typically double their current rate i.e. 7% vs 3.5% which acts to restrict the supply of homes coming to the market and thus those that do decide to sell i.e. the mortgage free command a higher price due to lack of supply where in the US 92% of mortgages are fixed unlike the UK where even those with fixed rate mortgage are typically for less than 5 years.
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Monday, September 23, 2024
US Housing Market Free Equity / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Have you wondered how every so often a huge amount of money apparently appears out of nowhere that completely upends the consensus view.,where most only realise it's significance long after asset prices have reacted to the event, a case in pont being March 2020 when few could understand how stocks were about to enter an epic raging bull market when the worst of the pandemic was yet to materialise. At the time one had clues such as that the governments will print twice the amount they printed before as I wrote long before the start of 2000, that will eventually flow into asset prices and of course experience of been through several cycles of similar events of impending doom inexplicably to most translating into soaring asset prices.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September.
.....
Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time)
US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
US State Demographics / Housing-Market / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big problem with US house price trends is that the US is just so big! Whilst the US as a whole will see a rising population however that rise is not uniform across all states, so whilst this analysis is heading towards a conclusion for rising average house prices that does not mean that house prices will rise in your town, city or state. For instance it appears folk are fleeing the likes of New York and California for Texas and Florida of all places! Which I guess is more of a dream of what Florida once was rather than what it has become i.e. over populated. I strongly suspect that Florida will witness a trend reversal over the coming years as folk flee over crowded Florida for the likes of the Carolinas.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
When the Federal Reserve decides to slash interest rates, it sets off a domino effect in the financial world, and precious metals like gold and silver are among the first to feel the impact. Yesterday, we saw a 0.50% cut, so it’s time to revisit how these metals have historically performed… and let’s just say, they’ve put on quite the show.
The Golden (and Silver) Truth About Fed Rate Cuts
Since 2000, gold and silver have shown a knack for appreciating when the Fed cuts rates by a full half percentage point. Here’s a look at how they’ve danced to the Fed’s tune:
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every now and then, I peruse articles written on Seeking Alpha to glean a flavor for what the average investor feels about the current market environment. And, to that end, I will scan the comments section for some nuggets of anecdotal sentiment.
So, over the last week or so, I have seen quite a few comments about the S&P500 such as these:
"We could hit 10k sometime around 2028 but I wouldn't be surprised with 2027 either."
"At this point it's clear that nothing will sink stocks. Even a full blown recession event like 2008 wouldn't be able to do much damage to the stock market at this point. In fact it would be bullish because Fed would print trillions to pump stocks again."
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
US Population Growth Rate / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It should not come as any surprise that the US population continues to grow, rebounding strongly from the pandemic pause in immigration which acts as a cushion against the falling fertility rate that currently stands at 1.66 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 so obviously the gap is being filled by immigrants as is the case with most western nations with a growing population such as Britain which has a fertility rate of 1.55 vs the EU at 1.46 and those that bark the loudest about immigrants Poland and Hungary are dying the fastest not only because they have a low fertility rate but also that many millions of their young have migrated abroad with some 2 million Poles having settled in the UK alone, in total Poland has lost 1/5th of it's population to emigration. Poland as much of Eastern Europe is dying unlike Western Europe which is at the heart of the basket case that is called the European Union.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Are Stocks Overheating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices continued their uptrend on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% and breaking above the 5,600 level. The market is once again nearing its July 16 record high of 5,669.67. But will it continue upward? Today, the index is expected to open 0.1% lower as markets await the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. In the short term, the market appears more and more overbought, making a correction likely at some point.
Last week, the investor sentiment worsened, as shown by AAII Investor Sentiment Survey on Wednesday, which reported that 39.8% of individual investors are bullish, while 31.0% of them are bearish, up from 24.9% last week.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
I want to start this article with a little background about Elliott Wave analysis, and begin with a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful money managers of all time:
"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"
Back in the 1930’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets represent unconscious, non-rational reactions which follow a repeating fractal pattern, which means they move in variably self-similar patterns at all degree of trends. This repeating fractal pattern represents overall societal sentiment which is governed by the natural law of the universe as represented through Fibonacci Mathematics.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2024
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET?
Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments world-wide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%…
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
All those who want house prices to go up should be bending over backwards to encourage immigration because those western nations with little immigration are literally DYING. One only needs to look at Asia.
Japan, immigrant population 2.3% - Fertility rate 1.2 - DYING - Population falling at the rate of near 1 million per year!
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
Global Debt Bubble / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The global debt bubble that just keeps on inflating. And what does all this debt do? Debase currency and Inflate asset prices.
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Thursday, September 12, 2024
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The CPI data is going to be released today, so the markets are tense.
Gold's Gains Limited by Short-Term Resistance
Gold moved slightly higher, but the very short-term resistance line based on the previous highs keeps gold’s gains in check.
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Sunday, September 08, 2024
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good reliable signaler for a recession and the next bear market will be when the yield curve uninverts. Whilst nothing is a done deal, however this signal is 90% reliable so on such a signal it would be wise to at least reduce exposure to over valued stocks heading towards uninversion. .Whilst also being prepared to ride out whatever a potential bear market delivers in better valued stocks where the risk is one of the recession changing the metrics as companies MISS earnings and thus become more expensive as their stock prices fall. That is the risk of investing in the stock market, a balancing act of mainlining exposure whilst riding temporary dips as one is acting without the benefit of hindsight.
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