Saturday, May 25, 2024

Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential recently wrapped up their latest earnings season.  These fundamentally-superior smaller gold producers delivered big last quarter, reporting spectacular results.  The potent combination of record gold prices, lower mining costs, and better production fueled some of their richest profits ever.  Yet mid-tiers still remain way undervalued.

The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF.  With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX.  That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings.  Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!

Friday, May 24, 2024

Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

All eyes today will be on the Fed and it's interest rate decision, weren't we supposed be having a cut in March? That's gone! Kicked down the road. So no rate cut today or at the next meeting nor likely in June. And each time the Fed holds the MSM clowns cry stocks must fall due to failure for rate cuts to materialise all whilst the bull market continues to relentlessly grind higher.

Everybody is obsessed with when will the rates be cut without understanding why rates should be cut!

Friday, May 24, 2024

Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors / Stock-Markets / Banksters

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed and two other U.S. banking regulators are going to significantly reduce a planned increase in capital requirements for the country's large banks.

As a reminder, the regulators were planning a 16% increase in capital levels and a 20% increase in RWAs (risk-weighted assets) for the banks with total assets of more than $100B. These changes should have improved the banks’ financial resilience and prepared them to better absorb potential losses.

Friday, May 24, 2024

Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024

By: EWI

Another bank failure, another underperforming share price.

Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank was closed down on Friday, April 26, and the assets were sold to Fulton Bank. Republic First becomes the first bank failure of 2024. Given our outlook for the stock market and the economy, it will probably not be the last.

Thursday, May 23, 2024

AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Portfolio is now 76.7% invested, 23.3% cash with the changes largely due to selling 89% of my MSTR holding during it's FOMO climb that topped out at $1865.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/xxxx patrons only

Stocks in or very near buying ranges worth accumulating are -

Thursday, May 23, 2024

All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

All that glitters isn’t gold.

Silver also has quite a shine lately.

While gold has gotten the headlines, silver has had a solid bull run over the last several months. In fact, the white metal has outperformed gold in this gold bull market.

Last week, silver charted an 11 percent gain, cracking $30 an ounce for the first time in over a decade.

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Wall Street is ecstatic after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit 40,000 for the first time ever. The nominal record makes for plenty of pithy headlines.

The Dow is indeed racing higher in terms of depreciating U.S. fiat dollars. But what about in terms of real money – gold and silver?

Thursday, May 23, 2024

S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Submissions

 The S&P 500 index of large cap U.S. stocks has rallied +49% since the October 2022 lows, and +28% since the most recent October 2023 lows.  Bulls argue that the equity rally has much more time to run. Typical bull markets last about 5 years. If we consider the January to October 2023 correction to have been a significant bear market that reset the excesses from the prior bull market, then the bull market longevity argument makes senses. Recall that the S&P 500 fell -26% from January to October 2023 following the post-Covid “bull market”, resulting in +108% equity gains.  On the other hand, if we argue the bearish case, Covid distortions likely mean that the typical lengths (and magnitudes) of the bull and bear phases can’t be applied today. Bears could argue that the 2022 correction/bear market represented a mid-cycle correction or just a cooling of the excessive movement from April 2000 to December 2021. In any case, whether this is year 4 of a bull market that begin in 2020 or year 2 of a bull market that begin in 2022 would seem to have little predictive power of how much longer equities will rally, assuming again that Covid distortions will skew historical trends.

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours / Companies / Nvidia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst the S&P has been cool as a cucumber there has been a lot of action in individual stocks, especially out of hours, for instance on Monday JBL spiked lower pre-market to $108 triggering target buys at $111 and $109 then shortly on opening reversing higher to currently stand at $122. With several more instances of such price action, never mind speculation of an Eth ETF sending crypto's higher.

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Folk ask when will the S&P index correct? This is the problem when investors stare at the S&P they MISS the corrections in key target stocks! Google fell to $130. down 15% from it's high as I pointed out at the time as I accumulated more that it would likely soon reverse higher to target $160+, and then there is TESLA that traded down to a DEEP 47% deviation from it's $299 bull market high, with a dozen more opps to accumulate into, the likes of Redfin, Flex, Apple, ALB, BHP, CCJ, DIODE, GFS, Baidu, BDEV, Corsair, Unity and so on all whilst most remained focus on the S&O.... I keep saying to forget about the indices and focus on the individual target stocks but folk keep making the same mistake of waiting for the S&P to move before they decide to act. The S&P is just a cap weighted average, it does not reflect what most target stocks are doing and thus opps to buy and sell get missed by staring at the S&P nothing burger. The S&P should be treated as a stand alone market to trade or invest in..

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Hubert_Moolman

Over the last 125 years, the silver chart has formed two remarkable, similar patterns. The chart below shows a yearly silver chart (only closing values):

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Bitcoin sets a new all time high of $69,000 before the exchanges pulled the rug on leveraged longs by dumping BTC down to 59,976 within a few hours of the high, job done and bitcoin is back to near where it was before the rug pull. Think about that for a moment, Bitcoin just dumped near $10k in a few hours and then recovered almost all of it! And this bull market is only getting started!

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! / Politics / US Economy

By: Raymond_Matison

Determining America’s economic trends and world leadership position is no longer difficult; all we need to do is to answer some simple but foundational questions – and the answer becomes startingly clear.  Join in, and see if your own answer to these questions, if markedly different from the ones cited here, leads to a similar or a credible conclusion, giving you clarity on this important American citizen and investor issue.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany / Politics / Palestine

By: N_Walayat

No Ferro Roche at the UN as the Pakistani Ambassador at the UN Grows a pair of balls and accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany in their genocide of the Palestinian people where leaked documents are revealing Israeli intelligence's hands behind the October 7th false flag attack.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Could We See $27,000 Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Could we see $27,000 gold?

That seems far-fetched but financial analyst and investment banker Jim Rickards makes the case that it could happen.

Gold charted a big rally in recent months, hitting a new all-time high of over $2,400 an ounce last month. Even with the higher prices, gold demand has remained robust. Central banks globally are adding gold to their reserves, as have investors, particularly in the East.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners just wrapped up another quarterly earnings season, reporting great results.  Sector unit profits continued blasting higher on stable production, lower mining costs, and record prevailing gold prices.  Yet individually plenty of majors still struggled with rising expenses or lower output.  So deploying capital in miners to leverage gold’s remarkable breakout requires handpicking fundamentally-superior stocks.

The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark.  Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead.  Its $13.9b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 28x!  GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Those two largest categories account for fully half of GDX.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Over the last couple of months, gold has scaled record highs, peaking at over $2,430 an ounce before correcting and settling in the $2,300 range.

That's a healthy gain. But you could argue that gold remains significantly underpriced given the inflation we've experienced that continues to rapidly devalue the dollar.

That leaves many people wondering when gold is really going to break out.

Friday, May 10, 2024

Micro Strategy Bubble Mania / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Micro strategy went nuts Friday ending the session at $1106 which prompted my early Monday Morning Market brief warning that MSTR was primed for a huge pump and dump, so get ones limit orders in place to capitalise on what could turn into an epic first few days of the week, where I imagined we could even reach something like 1296 before the bubble popped. However reality turned out to be even crazier and more volatile.

Friday, May 10, 2024

Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

Last Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed that U.S. employers added some 175,000 jobs in April.

But while April’s numbers captured most of the headlines, the same jobs report also contained downward revisions for earlier this year, with the BLS admitting that “employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.”

Thursday, May 09, 2024

Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just as the 2021 Bitcoin bull market illustrated one can expect sizeable corrections during this bull market following a break to a new all time high in addition to the 10% intra-day swings where 2021 saw 3 major down swings of -31%, -25%, and -17% before the mini bear market ahead of the actual final high.

However, the swings to date averaging just -20% for THIS bull market have been a lot milder to date. So it's a choice between using the previous bull markets swings or this bull markets swings in attempts to extrapolate how the tops and bottoms will play out. However, given that most recent price action is more important than for this exercise I have gone with the most recent swings as likely to be more representative of what could come to pass.