Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Recession Signals - Daylight, Nighttime, And Cycles Of Risks And Opportunities / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Numerous warning signals of a coming recession have appeared recently, and there have been rapid changes in bond prices, stock prices and Federal Reserve policies.
Yet, the stock market indexes are rising again, and the economic and financial fundamentals remain strong in many ways. Are the widespread fears of recession overblown?
In the search for answers, this analysis explores 164 years of economic history, and the 34 previous "night and day" iterations of recession and expansion. By studying the average expansion and recession, many insights can be gained in terms of what economies look like shortly before recession, and whether history shows that the current robust economic statistics are in fact a reliable argument against another recession starting within the next 1-2 years.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Or Will There be 1 More Year like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the S&P 500 at its 50% retracement, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. The bigger question is what happens next after the pullback/retest. Will there be 1 final leg in the bull market, like 1999? Or is the bull market already over?
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Will the Markets Explode One Last Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Look… the crash of a lifetime ahead is inevitable.But, it’s looking increasingly like we’ll see a last-hurrah short boom of a lifetime first. Something I like to call the Dark Window because it’s unexpected and most miss it.
Will you?
I hope not.
I hope you’ll be ready for it because, today I’m going to give you a few insights into what to watch for…
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Will the Nasdaq Hit 10,000 This Year? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Harry_Dent
Who would have thought I would be forecasting that the Nasdaq could zoom to 10,000 this year?Two things have changed my perspective in recent months: The Q4 2018 crash didn’t approach the typical 40% loss in the first two to three months, as was typical of most major bubbles… and my newer 90-Year Bubble Buster Cycle.
That 90-year Cycle is a “double variation’ of my proven 45-Year Innovation Cycle. It has marked the greatest bubble peaks and “resets” since the Industrial Revolution (1837 to 1842 and 1929 to 1932).
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Seiko Automatic Watches: The Watches for Financial Traders / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
For those in the financial markets, a watch is more than just a device for keeping time. It is a sign of prestige, a representation of who you are, and a fashion statement. This is why many top traders invest in Audemars Piguet and the Patek Philippe watches.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
One Thing to Do in This Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Rodney_Johnson
It’s time to get to work.We’ve learned a thing or two since early October…
When oil is low, it can go lower.
President Trump remains unpredictable.
The Fed can be wrong. And it can hurt stocks.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The US Interest Rate Hawks Surrender / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
They say that there are no atheists in fox holes. Recently it has also become clear there are no monetary hawks in bear markets.
For much of the last decade many conservative market analysts have decried our reliance on monetary stimulus to prop up the economy and the stock market. But in the final months of 2018, in the face of the worst stock market declines in a decade, many of these supposedly pragmatic figures quickly abandoned their convictions. As the markets briefly crossed into bear territory, monetary hawks joined with the doves and President Trump in issuing a full-throated call for the Fed to cancel their planned rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. It appears as if the Fed got the message. Almost overnight, the tone from the Fed softened considerably, causing Wall Street to sound the "all clear."
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
UK 10 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
Borrowers weighing up their mortgage options at the start of the year may find that the typically favoured two and five-year fixed mortgage rates are low compared to recent years. However, amid heightened concern about future Bank of England base rate rises, many could be seeking even further security with their monthly payments.
The latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk reveals that now could be the time to consider longer-term fixed deals, as the average 10-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased significantly over the past five years, dropping 1.56% to stand at 3.05% today. Not only this but the availability of longer-term fixed mortgages has increased to stand at nearly 10 times what it was in January 2014.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks. Will Gold Benefit? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Thousands of political, business and cultural leaders are heading now towards Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum. On the eve of the world’s biggest annual gathering of the rich and powerful, the International Monetary Fund released its newest world economic outlook. What are the forecasts – and their implications for the gold market?
Global Expansion Weakens
Well, the title of the IMF’s update is telling: “A Weakening Global Expansion”. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent this year, 0.2 percentage point below last October’s projections and estimated performance in 2018. The revisions carry over from softer economic momentum in the second half of 2018, in particular in Germany, due to the problems of the automotive industry, and in Italy, due to the worries about sovereign and financial risks. Moreover, the experts acknowledge now the weakened financial sentiment and project deeper contraction in Turkey than previously anticipated.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
What If Stock Market Near-Term Recovery Rally Psychology is Spent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Increasingly, my view of all of the action in ES (e-mini March S&P futures contract) from the 12/25/18 electronic Christmas Day low at 2316.75 into last Friday’s (1/18/19) high at 2677.75 (+15.6%) represents three distinct psychological phases of market influence, which I have color-coded on the attached chart:
1) Red: Natural Acute Oversold Market Recovery Rally,
2) Turquoise: Fed Rate Pause-(Algorithmic Headline) Rally, and
3) Gray: China Stimulus, Positive Trade News (Algorithmic Headline) Rally.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
A Government of Socialists / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Brace for the most bizarre government that Congress has ever seen in your lifetime. The Democrats installed a band of untested novices bent on adopting a socialist utopia. The House of Representatives has become a chamber of horrors that only libtard groupies could embrace and the Senate reflects the bluest of blue from metropolis and the coastal cultures. The gangland underworld families that make up the Deep State and are controlled by the Shadow Government elites have shifted tactics for electing the next generation of Federal legislators.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The Specialist Lending Renaissance / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Submissions
Anyone who’s been in business for more than a decade will undoubtedly remember the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Not to mention, the market crash that followed, which to a large extent dismantled the entire subprime lending market of Great Britain. Despite having previously occupied approximately 10% of the total sector, it was no longer deemed appropriate or advisable to hand out subprime mortgages or loans.The origins of the crisis can be traced to the 2006/2007 softening of the property market in the United States. The quality and value of mortgage-backed securities triggered concerns among investors, who began to question whether they’d made the right decision. Unfortunately, it quickly became clear that far too many banks and businesses had been liberally handing out cash to clients who had no plausible means of paying it back.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The 5 Rules of Real Estate Investment / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: OutreachMama
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Britain's Manchurian Prime Minister Scraps Residency Fees for 5 Million Economic Migrants / Politics / BrExit
By: N_Walayat
Britain's inept Prime Minister, Theresa May has decided to scrap residency settlement fees of £65 due to kick in today for as many as 5 million EU economic migrants, with the costs for processing applications now to be born wholly by British tax payers. This is a further example of the nightmare that a pro European REMAIN supporting Prime Minister and 75% Remain Parliament has put Britain into. A nightmare of a Parliament determined to subvert BrExit, which cannot even sign itself upto Theresa May's "Back Stab" deal that was so feeble that effectively ensured that Britain would be unable to LEAVE the EU without the EU's permission!
Britain is suffering the consequences of not only having a Manchurian Prime Minister but also a majority Manchurian Parliament that is acting in the best interests of the European Union rather than the British people, which is determined to water down Brexit to being only Brexit in name and not in practice, turning Britain into a global Dads army laughing stock!
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Gary_Tanashian
This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical up-turn.
The prime Semi Equipment names we follow are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). Well over a year ago we used their failing leadership to the broad Semi sector as a leading indicator on the economy, and things finally came to a head in October, 2018. We made note of how industry advocates have been lobbying hard for the Trump Administration to re-think its trade tariffs as relates to Semiconductors.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
From ASEAN Economic Development to Militarization / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In Africa, the Trump administration is setting a precedent by replacing economic development with militarization. In Asia, it seeks to couple “rebalancing” in trade with a rearmament drive.In a recent editorial, The Manila Times expressed concern that relatively benign economic conditions may lead to a false sense of security as “the United States-China trade war may be starting to inflict collateral damage on the economy.”
In the short-term, it is a valid concern for the Philippines and other ASEAN economies that currently benefit relatively benign economic conditions.
But even if the worst excesses of the trade war could be deterred, there are darker clouds in the longer-term horizon. The Trump administration’s new trade protectionism is accompanied by increasingly military stance. The new US Africa strategy heralds changes in other regions as well, particularly Asia.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Bitcoin is entering the Dead Zone / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: readtheticker
Bitcoin and the technology boom of 1990's have so much in common, you would think they are twins!
Previous Post: Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver
The chart below shows how similar each story is.
Mr Market knows this, therefore the desire to enter this market is low, and lower prices will plaque Bitcoin for the next 18 months at least. The supply of coins into this market will continue, and prices will continue to fall, there may be bear market rallies along the way, and the good news is the patient (yip that word) long term investors will have the chance to accumulate coins at pre 2017 bubble launch zones (massive support zones).
Monday, January 21, 2019
Gold Stocks Remain in a Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market.
Gold stocks have been in a rally.
That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday.
Take a look at the charts of any gold stock index (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) and it’s clear they are in a downtrend.
Go back two to three years. You’ll see lower highs and lower lows. That’s a downtrend!
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Will China Surprise The Us Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around – even in the midst of all of this uncertainty.
Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week.
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Monday, January 21, 2019
Tips to Keep Your Finances Healthy in 2019 and Beyond / Personal_Finance / Money Management
By: OutreachMama
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