Friday, September 11, 2015
The Fourth Turning: Crisis of Trust / Politics / Social Issues
By: James_Quinn
"Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:
Friday, September 11, 2015
Stock Market Volatility Drops Ahead of Q4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the September 2, 2015 Market Minute titled "Likely bottom for the S&P 500", the key volatility indexes continue to crest ahead of the bullish Q4 period.
The volatility indexes for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ all appear to have peaked over the last week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 11, 2015
Stock Market Forecasts: Why You Should Consider Technical Analysis / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis
By: EWI
Technical versus fundamental analysis? The winner is...
Technical versus fundamental analysis: Which approach yields better investment results?
A new study by three finance professors offers an answer.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 11, 2015
Decision Theory - The Certainty Equivalent / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: John_Mauldin
By Jared Dillian
One of my students met me in my office the other day. He is a ROTC cadet; that’s Reserve Officer Training Corps, in case you don’t know.
He knows I have military experience, and he wanted to pick my brain about how he could use his MBA while working for the government.
“Uh, you can’t, really,” I said.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 11, 2015
Gold Price Slides Again as Expected / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion, short (full) speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view.
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined once again yesterday, but this was not surprising to those who followed our analysis. We moved to the short side many days ago and the profits have just increased. Will they increase even more?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Jeremy Corbyn Wins Labour Leadership Election 2015, Labour Out of Power for 15 Years! / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Voting for the the next Labour leader closed at 12pm today. The election followed the disastrous reign of Ed Milliband who not only failed to beat the Conservatives at the May general election but took Labour back towards the 1980's level of number of MP' after haemorrhaging virtually every Labour MP in Scotland to the Scottish Independence fanatics.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Buy Gold, Sell the S&P / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Buy low, sell high! As of today, September 3, 2015, the better choices are buying gold and selling the S&P 500 Index and relevant stocks.
Why?
Examine the graph of the ratio of Gold to S&P 500 Index for the past 25 years. The ratio is low now and likely will correct higher. I think gold will move higher and the S&P will move lower.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Stock Market Sentiment Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Gary_Tanashian
In the last 2 NFTRH editions, we noted extremely over bearish market sentiment conditions in Rydex bull/bear fund allocations and in Small Speculators’ net short positions. These sentiment indicators have been reset to traditional correction-ending, even bear market-ending levels. That’s the reality.
The latter especially, has been a reliable contrary indicator. Basically, the Small Specs have never been right at important market turns. For instance, they were heavily net short in the late 1990’s but by the time the market topped in 2000, they had covered and become net long. They have reliably been a contrary indicator all along the current bull market as well, going net short at each correction bottom, post 2009.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Confusions About Interest Rates Part 2 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Following the 2001 dot-com crisis, interest rates were lowered to 1% and then slowly raised to 5% over a 4-year period. This timid policy still created a massive bubble in housing that finally bust in 2008. Instead of learning from the past, we doubled down on this same failed policy. Interest rates were then lowered to 0% and have been held there with little political will to raise them one iota.
We are now on the eve of another major financial crisis, yet economists (except Austrians) still don’t really understand the role played by interest rates in a capitalist economy. To avoid repeating economic mistakes of the past, we must understand the faulty logic that led us to these errors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Confusion About Interest Rates Part 1 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Since 2008, central banks have rushed to lower interest rates to spur growth. This has induced mal-investments in almost all asset classes. For example, with oil prices below $50 a barrel and trending lower, the shale oil industry is in serious trouble as is the banking industry that lent it over $1 trillion.
Of course, economists and faulty economic theory are 100% responsible for what is to come. The professional economist today is like the doctor of the past whose prescription to bleed the patient was considered state-of-the-art medicine; the cure, of course, being much worse than the disease.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Virgin Money’s Record Beating 37-month 0% balance Transfer Credit Card / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring
By: MoneyFacts
Virgin Money has improved the terms of its Balance Transfer Credit Card MasterCard, increasing the 0% balance transfer term from 36 months to 37, the longest currently available. The card has therefore been awarded the highest Moneyfacts product rating of ‘outstanding’.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Stock Market Something Happened This Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Prior to 6:00 am, the SPX futures were up to 1960.00, a near-50% retracement of yesterday’s decline. Then something happened. “S&P 500 e-mini futures have been halted twice (0551ET and 0612ET) in what one market observer exclaimed "looks like manipulation to me." So what exactly happened at 6:12am?”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Refugees and Migrants in a World of Government Meddling / Politics / Immigration
By: MISES
Per Bylund writes: [Updated Author’s Note: The issue of immigration has only become more pressing over the ten years that have passed since this article’s original publication. And, unfortunately, the libertarian movement has not reached a consensus on this issue. But it should be easy, considering how government is at both ends of the problem: government is the number one reason people choose to escape their countries, whether because of governments’ war or devastating poverty due to the lack of opportunities in regulated markets; and government is the reason ordinary people, in a desperate state because their lives have been forcefully uprooted, have a hard time choosing where to lead their lives in peace. The desperation is due to the so-called “failings” of their own governments, and augmented by ours.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
China Allows Gold Bullion as Collateral / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange said it will allow physical gold to be used as collateral on futures contracts from September 29, according to a statement posted on its website this morning as reported by Reuters.
Physical gold will be permitted to be used for up to 80 percent of margin value, according to the statement.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
The EU Uses Every Crisis To Grab More Power / Politics / European Union
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Jean Claude Juncker held a speech yesterday that had, oh irony, been labeled a State of the Union. A perfect way of showing how pompous Juncker and his surroundings have become. A perfect way, too, to point out how much the European Union differs from the United States. The gap is so wide it doesn’t need any explaining.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Why Central Banks Are Pressing Investors To Hold Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Claudio Grass writes: It has been nearly three years since we published our first Outlook Report in December 2012. Since the beginning of our publication, we have focused on different aspects of the gold market and have analyzed what moves the gold market. In this article, we would like to re-examine some of the topics that we had previously discussed and analyze whether any of our assumptions have changed.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Gold’s Fate in the Hands of The Janet Yellen / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Bob_Kirtley
US Monetary policy has played its part and had an impact on many aspects of the financial markets including the precious metals sector. We have been through a period of Quantitative Easing whereby trillions of dollars were printed in an attempt to boost the economy after the great financial crash of 2008. The markets were then weaned off the money supply through a strategy known as tapering which gently brought about the end of money printing. Over this period gold prices have had a roller coaster ride reaching a new all-time high of around $1900/oz before falling back to the current level of around $1106/oz.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Retail Silver Market Has Seized Up - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: David_Morgan
Silver expert David Morgan says prices of the white metal may be low, but demand is huge. Morgan explains, “I did a survey of many of the top wholesalers and retailers in the country and came to the conclusion that the retail side of the market has basically seized up. One of the biggest mints in the U.S. is backlogged about 4 million ounces. You have two other main government mints that are basically on halt and not producing, or trying to catch up. You have huge premiums in the silver bar market and extremely high premiums in the silver bag market, or what is referred to in the industry as junk silver. Dealers are paying $5 above spot to source silver bags. What that equates to for the cost of silver is about $19.25 an ounce, and we are in the mid-$14 range for an ounce of silver. So, obviously, there is a huge demand that cannot be met with the current supply in the retail market.”
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Stock Market Daily Charts Show A Strong Reversal Lower.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
Last night there was some actions taken by the heads in Japan. Their stock market rocked higher, which naturally caused Europe's futures to rock higher, and finally gave our futures a massive life higher. The intervention has to limit, it seems. One leader after another from all over the world are coming out with drastic actions to ensure good times for their economies. Every time the market tries to fall for a week, or so, we get the Government's kicking in to save mode. They won't allow those bears any love. No wonder markets usually go higher. It's just not an even playing field, but we have known that for more years than we can count, unfortunately. Regardless of how much the intervention may be inappropriate for the long term, action will be taken. They'll deal with the consequences later. Let someone else deal with it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Amid Stock Market Turmoil, Investors Cling to Hope. Why? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
History shows that many investors will hold stocks all the way down
I was watching financial television as the Dow Industrials fell 400-plus points on Sept. 1.
Two market professionals were interviewed: Both said the big decline in recent weeks represented a buying opportunity.
Read full article... Read full article...