Monday, September 14, 2015

Why Commodities And Precious Metals Are True Contrarian Opportunities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: SecularInvestor

Investors tend to make ‘contrarian’ investing choices too early in the cycle.

Basically, the price of an asset can be trending higher, lower or sideways. When an asset is declining in price, it remains in a downtrend until proven otherwise. The chance of a trend change is much smaller than the trend continuing. In other words, being ‘contrarian’ is difficult, and the pitfall is that an investor may be too early with his contrarian call.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Gold Price and HUI Stocks Short Term Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Maybe - based on today's price action in both the metal and in the mining shares (HUI) but only short term.

The shares were actually a bit more convincing than the actual metal, which is something one would like to see anyway if they are looking to be bullish.

The HUI opened lower, promptly fell apart but then began gradually climbing back up off the worst levels of the session as the day wore on. By the time of the close, they had managed to eke out a small gain.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Gold and Silver Psychological Warfare vs the Big Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight we'll look at the precious metals complex and see how this game of psychological warfare looks from a Chartology perspective. I know many are disappointed by the short covering rally at the end of today's trading but this is how markets work. They do everything they can to throw you off the trade and just when you think you have it figured out it will change again. The big question is did this short covering rally change the bigger picture? If one just looks at the very short minute charts they will see the end of the day rally as being pretty significant but the further you go out in time the less it affects the appearance of the chart.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Next Generation QE Money Printing Coming Soon / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Rubino

The intellectual groundwork is being laid for the next stage of the Money Bubble, and it's going to be epic. Here are excerpts from two articles that appeared over the weekend (and which should be read in their entirety). Both deal with Japan, which went all-in on debt monetization, lost badly, and now needs a new plan.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Gold and Silver Sector Very Low Risk Trading Setup at Possible Sector Bottom... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Clive_Maund

It looks like we are really going to see some fireworks late this coming week, right after the Fed make their much anticipated announcement about whether or not they will raise interest rates. They had better get on with it and do their miniscule rate rise this time, because if they don't and start making bleating noises again about doing it at some point in the future, their already tenuous credibility will vanish. There is a fair chance that they will do it, because although they would like to keep the stockmarket elevated, they will quite happily sacrifice the stockmarket to save what to them is much more important - the dollar and the Treasury market. If they do announce the rate rise it is thought likely that the stockmarket will tank, because the Fed has never done a single rate rise, it has always run a cycle of rate rises, and the psychological impact of the 1st rate rise for 9 years will therefore be big, especially because they have used the prospect of this rate rise for a long time to goad the market into driving the dollar higher and higher, like a donkey following a carrot on a string, to the great cost of emerging markets.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast for September to December 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 15% drop in average stock prices during the past month has galvanised a growing number of bears to once more dig out ancient text book reasons for why this is the time for the stocks bear market to finally begin, and not only that but keep making definitive statements for the expectations for market crash's that always fail to materialise for the obvious reason that a crash is a panic event that can only at best be discerned no earlier than during the preceding day. Even then the probability would favour the market ending higher on the so called crash day because market crashes are NOT common events.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Why Are Stocks Going Berserk? It’s All About Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Mike_Whitney

If you’ve been following the markets for the last three weeks, you’ve probably figured out that something is wrong. The markets are no longer behaving the way they should, and that has people worried. Very worried. In the last 15 trading days, the Dow Jones has experienced an unprecedented 13 triple-digit days, which means that stocks have been sharply rising and falling without any rhyme or reason. The financial media has tried to explain-away the extreme volatility by pointing to slower growth in China, troubles in the Emerging Markets or various dismal data-points. But none of these adequately explain what’s going on.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

How the Fed Is Hurting U.S. Manufacturing / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Investment_U

Sean Brodrick writes: Whether he deserves it or not, Obama is getting kudos on his handling of the economy, particularly the declining unemployment rate. In August, the official headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. But that same jobs data out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) contained some sobering news: Manufacturing payrolls are getting shredded.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.

We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

The Disappearing Middle Class / Politics / Social Issues

By: DailyWealth

Sunday, September 13, 2015

How to Prevent Costly Losses During Big Market Panics / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: DailyWealth

Porter Stansberry writes: Today's essay is about something no one ever wants to talk about: The horrible, out-of-control feeling that overwhelms investors and leads them to make irrational financial decisions with terrible consequences. Panic.

 

For wise investors, it's not a question of if other folks are going to panic, it's a question of when. Today, I'm going to give you a far better understanding of what causes investors to panic.

 

Sunday, September 13, 2015

FED Induced Sharp Drop in Stock Market Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The planets are coming together for the perfect storm on September 17th. First we have Mercury Retrograde, which often occurs at a top for the precious metals sector (and even the stock market). Then we have Jupiter opposing Neptune while Saturn enters into the sign of Sagittarius. Exaggerated hysteria or panic would be the best way to explain this astrological set up. My best guess is: the FED won't raise rates this time, but will hint strongly for the need to do so very soon (China may have nipped a September hike in the bud by devaluing the yuan). Everyone is expecting a retest of the August 24-25 lows anyway, so this is the perfect excuse to take it down. It also fits the pattern of an X wave of [B] bottom within an IMP (Irregular Megaphone Pattern -- discussed a few weeks ago). The big question is: will we fall just below the SPX cash price of 1867 near 1850 or below the SPY or S&P 500 futures price set the morning of August 24, 2015?

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Coffee Commodity Price Downtrend Continues / Commodities / Coffee

By: Austin_Galt

The coffee price is now down in an area with potential for a low to be put in. However, until there are signs of price turning back up more downside has to be favoured.

Let's revise the weekly and monthly charts.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Stock Market Primary IV Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The holiday shortened week started at SPX 1921. After a Tuesday morning, and Wednesday morning, gap up opening the SPX hit 1989. The market then declined to SPX 1937 by Thursday morning. Then the market rallied again to end the week at SPX 1961. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.05%, the NDX/NAZ were +2.15%, and the DJ World index was +2.05%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: the WLEI, export/import prices, wholesale inventories, consumer sentiment and long term investor sentiment. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC, Industrial production, and Options expiration.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Waiting On The Fed... What The Stock Market Likely Wants... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The market seems to have found some stability after the big push lower that saw the market flash crash one day, and even though it recovered some, it saw some real technical damage, once the heavy selling episode was over. We moved from one long-term base into a new base that's actually larger than the one that saw us go nowhere for eight months.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Why the Japanese Yen's Bull Run REALLY Ended / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: EWI

Monetary "Yentervention" did not cause the currency's depreciation -- it only COINCIDED with it

Talk about "star" wars.

"Asia's biggest action star" Donnie Yen was just cast in the next installment of the never-ending Star Wars movie franchise. Mr. Yen, in case you aren't aware, is known as "the strongest man in the entire universe." (Huffington Post)

Saturday, September 12, 2015

What Really Mattered at Apple Corps Big Event / Companies / Apple

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Michael A. Robinson writes: After 30-plus years in Silicon Valley, I’ve developed a thick skin.

I need it to keep myself immune from the daily barrage of useless hype that comes out of the Valley’s publicity mills every day.

That’s why I don’t fill your inbox with breathless reports every time Elon Musk burps.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

The US Has Already Tightened — Which Explains A Lot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Rubino

Next week we’ll find out if the longest-ever will-they-or-won’t-they drama involving a virtually insignificant quarter-point interest rate change will amount to anything. But either way, US monetary policy is already a lot tighter than it was a year ago.

The Fed’s balance sheet, for instance, is a measure of how much new currency it is pumping into the banking system. And it’s up only $79 billion, or 1.8%, in the past year. In real terms, that’s flat to slightly negative.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Lumber Looking Lousy / Commodities / Lumber

By: Austin_Galt

Lumber is looking pretty lousy at the moment hitting new yearly lows recently. Price has been trading as laid it in previous analysis so let's update the situation using the monthly and weekly charts.

Friday, September 11, 2015

China's Market Meltdown: Dangers and Opportunities / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

The buzz around Mauldin Economics’ virtual water cooler these days is El Jefe’s new documentary, China on the Edge. The timing for the online release, September 23, is propitious given the media attention to the meltdown of the Chinese market. The list of participants is impressive, and John has spent considerable time over the last few years wrapping his brain around the staggering number of variables at play in the People’s Republic of China.