Wednesday, January 05, 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The S&P 500 retraced its late last week’s declines yesterday and it went closer to the 4,800 level again. Will it reach the new record high today?
The broad stock market index gained 0.64% on Monday, Jan. 3, as it retraced most of the recent decline from last Thursday’s record high of 4,808.93. Yesterday the index fell to the local low of 4,758.17, before advancing almost 40 points. The S&P 500 index remains way above the local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a quick Santa Claus rally. The broad stock market’s gauge continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within an uptrend.
On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Current State / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of the AI stocks portfolio this means I am scrapping small nearby limit orders I had for Apple,. Microsoft, AVGO, and LMT, and replacing with more distant limit order, for instance I would be buying significant exposure to LMT at around $300 rather than at my just scrapped limit order of $326. Similarly I amended my LIMIT order to buy more INTEL from $47 to $44 and and IBM from $115 to $108. Though I would not be surprised if both Intel and IBM ROSE whilst the rest of the market fell, hence why I am content to already be mostly fully invested in Intel and IBM.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
The Alibaba Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Those lockdown growth tech stock darlings are leading the decline, the non FAANG variety are seriously starting to resemble Alibaba in terms of trend trajectories.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Will Gold & Silver Be Investment Outcasts in 2022 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
For precious metals investors, 2021 will rank as a disappointing year – at least in terms of price performance. Gold and silver lagged behind the stock market as well as broad commodity indexes.
Gold showed signs of gathering upside momentum in the spring, but prices settled back down into a wide trading range for the rest of the year. The monetary metal is down about 3% for the year but will finish well off its lows.
Turning to silver, the white metal finished down over 9% for 2021.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Stock Market Happy 2022 Entry / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out.
As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising.
Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words:
(…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury.
As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Complete paradigm shift will make Gold the generational trade / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Wall Street billionaire and financier Thomas Kaplan (who once said, “I’m no insect; gold is a great way to make a lot of money.”) is among the group of analysts who believes gold is in the early stages of a new up leg in its long-term secular bull market. Though Kaplan made his fortune in the mining business, he is also an Oxford-trained historian (with a Ph.D.) capable of putting gold’s current price trend in the context of a longer-term cycle – one he believes has not yet reached full maturity. (Please see chart below.)
“Let’s put it this way,” he says in a memorable interview with Stansberry Research’s Daniela Cambone, “gold still remains on Wall Street and in the west probably the most under-owned, least crowded trade in the global financial markets. … The era in which gold was the asset which people loved to hate and hated to love is starting to come to an end. We’re still in the very early innings. It’s still a smart money trade as opposed to a big passive money trade but that’s about to happen.” The next leg up, he believes, will be driven by what he calls “bold-faced” names now involved in the gold business. Kaplan, in that regard, mentions Warren Buffett (who at the time of the interview had just purchased stock in mining giant Barrick Gold), Mohamed El Erian, Mark Mobius, Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor Jones, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Kenneth Rogoff. (Long-time readers of this newsletter will recognize that list of notables as abbreviated.)
“The difference is this,” he concludes. “The market is now ready for the next leg of the gold bull market. The first leg was the one that took us up 12 consecutive years in a row regardless of whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears, whether there was a glut of oil or a shortage of oil, political stability or political instability, dollar weakness, dollar strength. It didn’t matter. Every year for 12 years gold went up. The next move is going to be a third wave, a long wave that lasts for a decade or fifteen years, maybe more … I think that you really are looking at a complete paradigm shift that will make gold the generational trade.” From there, Kaplan goes on to say that gold will reach $3000 to $5000 in the years to come.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Corsair MP600 NVME2 1tb Drive Sudden DEATH Failures - Back Up NOW! / ConsumerWatch / Computing
By: HGR
Corsair MP600 is a PCIE4.0 SSD drive with advertised read speeds of upto 4950 mb/s and write speeds of upto 4250 mm/s. After some 8 months of usage had already dropped in performance to about half advertised, well that should have been taken as a warning of worse to come as one of the two 1tb MP600 drives in my system FAILED within a few hours of first showing warning signs. Find out why you NEED TO BACK UP YOUR MP600 DRIVES ASAP because when you first get a warning you may not have much time left to start backing up as transfer speeds drop! It also illustrates why it's wise to have multiple drives in case one fails.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones Part 2 of 2 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Happy Near Year!
This is the concluding part two of my extensive analysis on the state of the AI tech stocks highlighting several stocks trading at bargain basement levels despite the FOMO rally in the face of the countdown to Financial Crisis 2.0 during 2022.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: 2022 Can Be Your Best Year Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Starting with a clean slate in 2022, you can make it the best year you ever have in the market.
It's time to start focusing on what is truly important in the market.
If what you have been doing until now is not working, isn't it time to broaden your understanding of how the market truly works?
With the market likely going to provide us another buying opportunity in early 2022, you may want to set yourself up before we begin the next major rally to 5500SPX.
If you have followed me during the last decade that I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, you would know that we have made some calls that have seemed absolutely ridiculous at the time. But, nevertheless, the market followed the path we laid out no matter how crazy it may have seemed.
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Monday, January 03, 2022
2020-22 - Soaring costs of the West's Pandemic failure / Politics / Coronavirus 2022
By: Dan_Steinbock
The West has failed to contain the pandemic, which has already caused almost 300 million confirmed cases, 6 million deaths and the loss of tens of trillions of dollars, due to policy failures.According to conventional wisdom, 2021 turned out to be relatively positive for major economies and markets. But such wisdom is naïve.
Vaccination drives continue in rich economies but remain inadequate in poorest ones. Meanwhile, the soaring numbers of cases are contributing to new variants that are growing more transmissible, more fatal, perhaps both in the future.
Consequently, two vaccine doses are no longer adequate. First booster has already been followed by a second one in early-adopter countries, while some still wait for their first vaccine dose. Economic uncertainty will linger longer than anticipated.
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
AUTODESK (ADSK) - CAD - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AUTODESK (ADSK) - CAD - $254 RISK - 3 OUT OF 10
Auto desk has been kicking around for literally decades, long before the internet become a thing with it's autocad software that has since mushroomed into over 100 design software packages so as the VR hardware advances then so will the demand for software to design and construct the metaverse's where Auto desk has decades head start on any startups. In terms of financials the companies revenues are growing at a rate of about 20% per annum so doubling sales roughly every 4 years. Trades on a lofty PE of 53, with decent EPS growth of 28%. Though on a high market cap of $56 billion but on the plus side the balance sheet shows a slight reduction in the number of outstanding shares, down form 222 million in 2017 to 219.8 million at the start of 2021. So they don't appear to be a serial shares printer.
The stock chart shows that Autodesk just experienced a sharp drop as the market disliked their latest earnings report for whatever reason.
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Stock Market Sector Themes In Play For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As 2021 closes, it’s time to consider how sector themes in the markets are likely to perform in 2022.
Years like 2021 saw a solid broad-based performance in many stock market sectors. Relatively simple approaches such as Indexing and Sector Rotation did well. But with macro changes in play and many uncertainties for 2022, we may very well see broad indexes underperforming while individual sectors dominated by a few stocks really shine.
Dips will continue to be bought unless something significant changes. But let’s not forget that we’re long overdue for a substantial correction. Significant risk catalysts are:
- Fed actions.
- International conflicts (i.e., Russia and China).
- Pandemic developments that are not currently known.
There’s always the risk of the unknown – the literal definition of a “Black Swan” event. We shouldn’t get too complacent, knowing that we may need to get defensive to protect capital suddenly. When it’s time to be defensive, let’s not forget that CASH IS A POSITION!
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Excuse Me Mr Gold. What Year Is It? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Although your calendar may say otherwise, gold is in the 1960s. The question is whether we will move into the 1970s or speed-run to the mid-2010s.Did you go overboard with your time travel and lose track of time? Probably not, but just in case, I assure you that the current year is 2021. To be 100% sure, I fact-checked it on a dedicated webpage for time-travelers. However, the authority of science is being questioned, and there are people who say that, from a macroeconomic point of view, we are approaching the 1970s, or at least the 1960s. There are also voices saying that the gold market is replaying 2012-2013. Although appearances point to 2021, let’s investigate what year we really live in.
The similarities with the 1970s are obvious. Just like then, we have high inflation, large fiscal deficits (see the chart below), and easy, erroneous monetary policy. Fifty years ago, the Fed blamed inflation on exogenous shocks and considered inflation to be transitory too. The new monetary regime adopted by the US central bank in 2020 also takes us back to the 70s and the mistaken belief that the economy cannot overheat, so the Fed can let inflation run above the target for a while in order to boost employment.
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Stock Market Early 2022 Should Continue Melt-Up Trend In January / February / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very late Santa Rally appears to have been set up in the US markets as we close in on the end of 2021. The US markets have already started a melt-up trend – which is what I expected to happen prior to the bout of volatility over the past 30+ days.
A Very Late Santa Rally Could Prompt A Powerful Move Upward
A very late positive shift in the US major indexes may prompt a powerful upward price trend in early 2022. I expect that Q4:2021 earnings and revenues will continue to impress traders while the US Dollar strengthens above 95. This combination of a strong US economy with a stronger US Dollar will continue to attract foreign capital investment in US equities in early 2022.
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Saturday, January 01, 2022
UK Energy Crisis WARNING 2022 - How to Avoid Huge Increase in Gas and Electric Fuel Bills Right Now! / Personal_Finance / Household Bills
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK energy bill are set to continue to soar during 2022 as customers either come off their fixed rate deals or that their energy provider walks 'goes bust' away from their contracts with customers leaving to be dumped onto an regulator appointed supplier as was the case for us as our Gas supplier ZOG disappeared. So what do to when your fixed rate content ends? Do you go for the suggested fixes that your energy supplier will be eager to get you to move onto? Or do you go for the standard variable rate. Watch my latest video on Britain's energy crisis before you make a BIG mistake that could result in paying 2 or 3 times what you could have paid all as a consequences of falling prey to the games the energy suppliers play with customers.
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Saturday, January 01, 2022
Why You Need A PR Expert For Your Financial Startup / Companies / Marketing
By: Submissions
Public Relations (PR) is a term we’ve heard all too often, usually in conversations concerning the marketing of a business. But not many have a grasp on what it truly means and, more importantly, the benefits that it bears.
Public Relations is all about conveying the right message, to the right people at the right time in an effort to create a stronger brand presence and reputation. A well-developed PR program for your business can help you enhance your marketing efforts. In addition, investing in PR can be transformative for a business's future and profitability.
Organizations that have caught on to this are investing considerable time and resources into staying on top of their PR strategies, and as a result, are generating greater returns.
Friday, December 31, 2021
TENCENT- Chinese High Risk GAMING Metaverse Stock Analysus for Investing 2022 and Beyond / Companies / China Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Tencent, China's gaming giant's stock price has collapsed under the weight of the communist dictatorships enthusiasm to control the minds of China's masses. They don't want workers to 'waste' time playing video games when they can be busy building skyscrapers even 'ghost' cities that few will ever live in that are already fast crumbling into dust. Still Tencent gives on exposure to potentially hundreds of millions of chinese gamers who are even more eager to seek escape from a totalitarian state into the virtual freedom of virtual worlds.
The financials for Tencent are neither great nor bad, as the corporations' earnings are suffering in response to CCP mafia style interference, demanding their VIG or the corporation will be put up against a wall and SHOT as some have been. Despite this the long-term trend trajectory of the corporations financials appear good i.e. extract short-term noise and look at the big picture and we are are going to see a doubling in revenues and profits over the next 3-4 years which should resolve in at least a doubling in the stock price. The current PE of 20 is the lowest the stocks traded at for at least 5 years so the stock is cheap.
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Friday, December 31, 2021
Gold Price Forecast 2022 - The Golden Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The NFTRH big picture view for gold has been bullish since calling a top in mid-2020
Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.
As you can see, the ‘real’ commodity adjusted price of gold was already in a long-term bull market from 2008 and it had actually turned up in 2019 before getting put all out of whack during 2020’s deflationary fear fest. The relief shown in this indicator has been in play for as long as the public has been aware of the inflation created by the Fed and the ‘inflation trades’ associated with it.
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Friday, December 31, 2021
Will 2022 Be Better for Gold Than 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope…
Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess.
Friday, December 31, 2021
Gold Stocks – Wishing And Hoping (And Losing) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD STOCKS – WISHING AND HOPING
As is the case with both silver (see Waiting On Silver) and gold, so too has the waiting game proved to be unprofitable for gold stocks. Wishing and hoping for better results doesn’t change the reality of losing (losing – “failing to gain or retain; being deprived of”).
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