Wednesday, December 11, 2019

What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy in terms of Inflation stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Gold-linked exchange-traded products are growing in popularity with investors. Assets held by gold ETFs have grown 38% globally in 2019.
In October, according to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in net inflows to reach a new record high total gold holding of 2,900 tonnes – at least on paper.

There is good reason to be skeptical of whether all these “gold” vehicles actually hold physical metal sufficient to back their market capitalizations on a 1:1 basis. Some of them very well might; others almost certainly don’t.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, silver, and mining stocks reversed practically exactly at their double triangle reversal point and the short positions that we opened along with taking profits off the table from the previous long positions, became profitable almost instantly. There’s quite a decline to catch here, and it seems that only a small part thereof had already taken place.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my final analysis of a 6 part series that aims to apply lessons learned from the 2017 general election towards a forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis that was first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November 2019.

Tory Seats projection analysis to date :

1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
4. Marginal Seats 326 - UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
5. Social Mood (patrons) - Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

Analysis to date averages to 3xx Tory seats which shows little deviation against my core house prices based forecast of 322 tory seats.

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.

First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:

1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
4. Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
5. Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov is set to update their MRP methodology based election polling seats forecast at 10pm today. Their existing forecast as of 27th November is for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour drops from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for 2019.

A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in a series that looks a the Tory and Labour Manifesto's where my first manifesto video covered the degree to which each party was going to bribe the electorate. And the second focused on the debt dynamics of whether Britain can afford to go on a debt fuelled spending spree given current Debt to GDP of 90%.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF / Commodities / Lumber

By: Chris_Vermeulen

WOOD, one of the Ishares ETF symbols related to the Real Estate and Construction sectors may become the next hottest instrument for skilled technical traders.  Over the past three years, Wood has rallied over 110% between a $40 to $84 range and the trading volume of WOOD has been relatively consistent near an average of about 140k shares per week.  Let’s dig into the opportunities that may present themselves over the next 6 to 12+ months in WOOD.

First, you can get more information about this iShares ETF here.

Second, the WOOD ETF is relatively closely correlated to the US Real Estate and Construction sectors. Thus, when economic data is announced that supports growing Real Estate and Construction activity, traders can easily translate that into forward expectations in price in the WOOD ETF.  For the purposed of this article, we’ll stick with a simple example of New Private Housing Unit Building Permits data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Congress Still Covering for the Fed’s Bailouts / Politics / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: MoneyMetals

Wall Street owns Washington DC – figuratively speaking. In literal terms, the largest banks in the nation own the Federal Reserve. They also bought and paid for a great number of DC politicians as evidenced by campaign contributions, Congressional voting records and sham oversight.

This was on full display at last week’s Committee on Financial Services hearing. “The Honorable Randal Quarles,” Vice Chairman of Supervision at the Fed, was among three people called to report for purposes of “oversight.” A memo outlining the topics of discussion was published by the committee.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Central Planners: Out of Room and Running Out of Time / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

One would have to place their trust in unicorns, sasquatch, leprechauns, and the tooth fairy to believe the current economic construct is sustainable. You also need to be woefully ignorant of history. In fact, there has never been a nation that engaged in massive debt monetization and did not eventually face hyperinflation, depression, and mass chaos. There is simply no such thing as magic, and you can’t build an economy on the foundation of debt, asset bubbles, and unlimited fiat money printing.

Perhaps the reason why the market hasn’t imploded yet is that the developed world has coordinated this so-called “strategy” of unbridled central bank lunacy to engage in permanent ZIRP and QE. Therefore, a currency crisis has been averted so far. However, now that these money printers have gone all-in, the next recession or freeze-up in credit markets cannot be averted by a dovish turnaround in monetary policies, as governments already have the gas pedal to the monetary and fiscal floor. The globe now has $255 trillion in debt, and the U.S alone is adding one trillion to that pile each year. The Fed is back in QE, along with the ECB and BOJ. And, no central bank in the developed world has room any longer to cut rates enough to boost consumption. 

Monday, December 09, 2019

Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" vs "Get Brexit Done"

Everything's always obvious in hindsight and so it was for the 2017 General Election campaign. We might all have seen it on the TV, but it just failed to register with most. What am I talking about? It is the phenomena that was Jeremy Corbyn or JC! In 2017 we saw it in his speeches, we saw it in his interviews and we definitely saw it at his mass rallies! Ooh Jeremy Corbyn, Ooh Jeremy Corbyn! Some 2.5 years on "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" may have become a little bit stale but you can still hear it humming in background.

Even fellow Blairites who literally hated most things Jeremy Corbyn stood for i.e. his 1970's style socialist ideology could not fathom the amount of interest that he was generating as JC was EVANGELICAL! So is those close to him could not understand what was going on then what hope did those who never met him in person have.

Monday, December 09, 2019

British Pound Struggling At New Resistance / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadia_Simmons

For many weeks running, GBP/USD has been trading sideways in the pink consolidation. After moving higher recently, just what are the chances of the breakout sticking?

Monday, December 09, 2019

Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MarketsToday

• Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
• Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Stock and Financial Markets Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely near an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, December 09, 2019

Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.

However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.

First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:

1. UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
2. Manifestos Bribes xxx (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
3. Economy xxx (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
4. Marginal Seats

The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.

However, note that this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.