Thursday, August 01, 2019
US Yield Curve Inverted Months Earlier than Most Think / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: John_Mauldin
The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators.
I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the curve was “inverted” back then, and we just didn’t know it.
The Powell Fed spent 2018 gradually raising rates and reducing the balance sheet assets it had accumulated in the QE years.
This amounted to an additional tightening. In fact, the balance sheet reduction may have had more impactthan lower rates.
Now if you assume, as Morgan Stanley does, every $200B balance sheet reduction is equivalent to another 0.25% rate increase, which I think is reasonable, then the curve effectively inverted months earlier than most now think.
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Climate Change and the Emergent Global Ideology / Politics / Climate Change
By: Mark_Blair
whether one is or is not convinced of anthropogenic global warming just isn’t the point. The point is that it’s the emergent global ideology, the perfect opportunity for discredited communists and bureaucrats to posture as saviors. (And we’ll discuss below The Other (Actual) Environmental Emergency: species loss, groundwater depletion, plastics, peak oil.)
But there’s a huge fly in the ointment: the west’s economic dependence on China, the brutal capit-ommunist dictatorship that keeps us in tube socks. China is – seems to be – in the final phase of biggie big big currency debasement.
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Stock Market Bearish Signs from the Fed, Economy, and Volume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Stocks fell Wednesday as the Fed cut interest rates. Today’s headlines:
- Rate cut and stocks
- The economic expansion cycle
- Manufacturing weakness
- Stock market’s volume
- U.S. Dollar breakout
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Next Recession Robust Case For The Largest Stock Market Losses In History / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
Stock market indexes are currently at record or near record highs, even as the chances for recession within the next 1-2 years seem to be rising. So how great would the losses be from these record heights, if the business cycle continues and we get another round of recession and bear market?
Thursday, August 01, 2019
US Fed Rattles Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post.
We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook. The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel. Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in. Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”.
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Thursday, August 01, 2019
Precious Metal Stocks Are Not An Investment They Are A Speculation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Bob_Kirtley
Preamble
Let's start by defining investment and speculation, and for this purpose, I have used Investopedia:
An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation.
Speculation refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast and AI Investing Update (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of my July stock market trend forecast update. Much as expected the correction ended and resolved in a rally towards the trend forecast. With the Dow currently deviating from the trend forecast by about +1.5%.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Gold Awaits as Boris Johnson and the Fed Take the Spotlight / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, Boris Johnson became the PM of the UK. The odds of hard Brexit increased, sending pound lower. Now, markets await tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Gold closely monitors these events and thinks about which way to go next.
Boris the Brexiteer
Last week, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson – for the people of the Great Britain known as Boris Johnson with a funny mop of blonde hair – became the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Theresa May resigned. And who knows – he might very well be the last prime minister of the Great Britain, as the union comes under increasing internal pressure due to Nicola Sturgeon’s push for a second referendum on Scottish independence. Remember, not all constituent parts of the United Kingdom voted for Brexit – the lion’s share of that vote came from England.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Expensive: Traumatic Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
As S&P climbs to new highs and closes another week into 3000s levels, we believe that the ground underneath is starting to slip. The economy per say may not be the problem. However the same cannot be said about valuation. The S&P500 is valued over 100% to its traditional mean and median levels on price to earning ratio. The one month treasury yield is now above US 2 year and 10 year yield thus effectively inverting. Money is often borrowed in the short term markets. A rise in short term rate is a warning signal of the coming mayhem. Rising yield will force models to reset after certain threshold are hit and this automatically converts into equity market cash outs. This sets of a chain reaction as sell momentum can spread across.
THe current S&P earning yield is 4.5% down from 6% thus contracting the returns investors make. This becomes even worrying when the short term yield is closing in on the earning yield at its fastest pace in over 10 years. We believe traumatic correction is on its way.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Medium-long Term Bullish Case From a Trend Following Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market is going nowhere as traders prepare for a rate cut. Today’s headlines:
- The stock market’s MACD
- S&P’s indecision is coming to an end
- Put/Call remains very low
- Finance stocks are finally going up
- Materials are no longer lagging the stock market.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
US Fed Infinite QE Forever at Zero Bound / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The widespread profound and recognized global recession, complete with numerous icon corporate failures, will lead the US Federal Reserve to return to unlimited Quantitative Easing with a Zero Percent chaser. The Jackass calls it a return to Infinite QE Forever at the Zero Bound. Not only is the double step of return to QE with a sequence of interest rate cuts urgently necessary, but the financial markets are demanding it. In fact, they are holding the USFed hostage, as the venerable august body is backed into a policy corner. This time seems different. For ten years, the USFed has relied upon coordinated policy with the Euro Central Bank, having used all the most extreme measures, yet has a systemic failure on its hands. Witness extreme monetary policy failure. The systemic failure is both financial and economic. The bond purchase program wrecked the bond market by driving away legitimate investors, while the ultra-low interest rates wrecked the economy by distorting asset allocation.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Nearly 700,000 Homes in the UK Have Broadband Classed as Slow / Personal_Finance / ISP's
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Do you feel like your internet is constantly slow and sluggish, meaning your unable to stream shows from the likes of Netflix or Amazon Prime? Well, you’re not alone, as a recent study from Ofcom has shown that nearly 700,000 homes across the UK have broadbands speeds of less than 10Mbps. That’s nearly 2% of offices and homes in the UK.
This is particularly shocking as 10Mbps is what is considered to be the bare minimum a household needs in order for it to cope with internet needs. This means that simple actions like watching a TV show on demand on Sky, playing video games or using Netflix will be extremely difficult. Even worse, if you have a family who all want to use the internet, there won’t be enough for everyone – which is sure to end in fights!
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Are We in Recession Yet? / / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I’m often asked if recession is coming.For quite some time now, my answer has been: “Yes, but not just yet.”
That’s still what I think today, but more of the early warning signals I have used in the past are beginning to flash again.
I see some leading indicators weakening. I see smart people like Dave Rosenberg argue we may already be in recession today.
And I see Wall Street not really caring either way, so long as it gets enough rate cuts to prop up asset prices. None of that is comforting.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Foreign Policy Betrayal of America / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Very little has changed when it comes to the elites who control public policy. Foreign affairs have been shaped by an un-American tribe of Judas' who seek to rule over real patriots. America has been systematically sold out for well over a century by deviants of our culture, economics, politics and especially religion. A legitimate foreign policy, above all, needs to protect our own country and her own people. Abdicating those responsibilities to benefit Israel is treason. Regretfully, most of the populace is so afraid of being labeled an anti-Semitic that they eagerly suspend rational thinking to be a kosher supporter.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Watch These Key Levels in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector appears to have started a correction.
It was roaring higher until natural resistance kicked in and the US Dollar grinded its way higher, towards its 2019 high. Factor in the Fed decision this week and it has created a natural “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
We cannot know for certain what the Federal Reserve will do or even more importantly, how the market will react. But we can take note of key levels in these markets.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Crude Oil Should Breakdown to $51 This Week / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is predicting that Crude Oil will break recent support levels near $55 and move very quickly down to levels near $50 to $51 before August 2nd, 2019. The move to near the $50 price level is likely to be a 100% measured Fibonacci price extension related to the initial downside move from $61 to $55 earlier in July 2019.
After this new downside move completes, we expect Crude Oil will form a short-term price base just above $50 that may last many days or weeks. Our earlier analysis of Oil called this move and we outline our future oil expectations. For more information about this call, please review the following research posts.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Central Bank Gold Agreement No Longer Necessary in Europe / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
Last Friday, July 26, 2019 - the spot gold price got what should be the opposite of a “Friday News Dump” using a longer gold price history perspective.
Effectively the significant bank power of Europe (ECB) and 21 other national central banks publically agreed that no gold bullion sale coordination is needed this September 2019 and after.
These +20 central 'gold holding' banks likely agree, that to sell sovereign gold bullion currently, is the exact opposite of what any prudent central bank should be doing.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Gold Sound Money Movement Gains Momentum in the States / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we continue our discussion on the importance of sound money -- and we are going to check in on the progress at both the state and federal levels. Jp Cortez of the Sound Money Defense League joins me to update us about sound money bills across the nation and also shares his group’s sound money scorecard -- revealing which states have policies that favor sound money and which states are simply abysmal. So, stick around for my very interesting conversation with Jp Cortez, coming up after this week’s market update.
As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets are consolidating their recent gains. The gold market is giving back 0.4% this week, bringing spot prices to $1,422 an ounce. Silver, on the other hand, is showing significant outperformance for the second straight week – up 1.2% since last Friday’s close to trade at $16.49, and the fact that it hasn’t broken down to this point after last week’s rally should be viewed quite positively.
Turning to platinum, the catalytic metal registers a weekly gain of 2.1% to come in at $867. And finally, palladium is headed higher by 1.3% this week to trade at $1,533 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
US Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.
Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future. We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
All Eyes on the Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August before the intermediate trend becomes more clear.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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