Tuesday, September 28, 2021
US Antitrust Against the Big Tech / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the United States, the executive branch, courts and Congress are moving to restrict the dominance of the U.S. tech giants.
In the 1960s, the US economy was driven by the automobile sector’s Big Three: GM, Chrysler and Ford. Today, it is fueled by the Big Tech. Over the past decade, US Big Tech has revolutionized internet economy, but allegedly abused its dominance.
In June 2019, the antitrust enforcers agreed to focus on Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon, while dividing responsibility over investigations. In October 2020, the House Committee finished a report recommending a range of measures to address the firms’ allegedly anticompetitive conduct. And in June, the Committee ordered to be reported a series of antitrust bills directed at Big Tech.
Last December, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC), in cooperation with 46 US states, launched an antitrust lawsuit against Facebook regarding its acquisition of two rivals, Instagram and WhatsApp, and the consequent monopoly power.
Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Gold Medium-Term Downtrend: Gold Miners in the Lead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver, and mining stocks don’t need any help from the USDX or the stock market; they can decline all on their own – the miners in particular.
Last week, mining stocks declined quite visibly, and it happened without significant help from the USD Index and from the general stock market. Silver and gold were practically flat week-over-week, so was the USD Index, and the general stock market (S&P 500) was up by 0.51%. This means that gold stocks and silver stocks should have closed the week relatively unchanged (as gold and silver did), or move somewhat higher (similarly to other stocks, as sometimes miners take their lead).
Instead, all important proxies for the mining stocks moved lower and closed the week at new daily and weekly 2021 lows. The HUI Index and the GDX ETF were down by about 3%, the silver stocks (SIL ETF) were down by 3.6%, and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior miners) was down by 3.83%, which means that our short position in the latter just became even more profitable.
Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Reflation vs. Economic Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t give in to the opening weakness, and eked out minor gains. There was no selling into the close either – the table looks set for the muddle through to continue on Monday. Tech and value – uninspiring on the day, and the same could be said of the credit markets. Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.
Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.
At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.
Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Corsair iCue H150i RGB Pro XT FULL Review! Software, Failed Firmware Update Unbricking Fix! / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
This is my comprehensive review of a Corsair H150i RGB PRo Xt Water Cooler, it's their top of the line Triple fan 360 Radiator too cool the likes of the 5950x as is in this system so as to enable overclocking by some 10% to get optimum performance out of onces system without letting the CPU temps under load run too hot, i.e. I would not want to see the CPU under load at over 84c, as I want the 5950x to last a good 5 years, as CPU's that are run too hot over time will degrade and tend to eventually require under clocking for stability.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Blueprint Medicines - BPMC - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Five more biotech stocks to add to the strategy of invest and forget for a potential X10 return. a reminder of why I am engaging in this binge on biotech stocks after having been focused on AI stocks for the past 5 years.
1. Biotech stocks are an unloved stocks sector whilst tech stocks over valued, even the ultra safe stocks such as the Top 10, so I am reluctant to add at current valuations hence why I hit the SELL button for the first time in many years and reduced my exposure to AI stocks by about 40%.
2. That biotech is a derivative of AI, we'll most sectors will soon become a derivative of AI because it is the PRIMARY tech megatrend of our age that will continue to broaden its reach to encompass all sectors of the economy.
3. That one of my former biotech 12xers got taken over (GW Pharma) that flooded my account with cash early May and so that focused my attention on repopulating my portfolio with 10 more biotech stocks where I expect at least 3 to 10x, with most of the rest expected to survive to varying extent. Though this is the stock market and so there are never any guarantees especially where such smallish cap stocks are concerned.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
China, India: Richer or Poorer? The Asian Pacific Financial Markets Forecast / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Today, both China and India are very different countries than 10 years ago. In so many ways, they are wealthier, safer and better.
But will these trends continue?
Our friends at Elliott Wave International are inviting you to get well-researched answers when you read this free excerpt ($59 value) from their September Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.
See where China and India are in their Elliott wave patterns – and what that means for business and life in general.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stock Market Bubble Valuations Dot Com 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Gold When the Tight Economic Rope Slackens / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
[edit] Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in 2008 the curve morphed from an inflationary steepener to a deflationary one and that’s an important distinction.
You’ll notice that a blessed Goldilocks economy is mentioned below as a less favored option for 2022. She runs with a flattening curve like the one during the 2013-2019 phase. If it steepens forget about Goldilocks and prepare for either an inflationary or deflationary steepener.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
The U.S. Government Plans to Default on Debt the Dishonest Way / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Debt troubles in China and Washington, D.C. helped boost safe-haven demand for precious metals early this week. By Thursday, however, investors piled back into stocks and sold safe havens like gold and silver again.
Platinum is making news for an unusual reason that has nothing to do with its primary demand sources in the automotive and jewelry industries. Instead, it has to do with the political fight over raising the debt ceiling.
Some Democrats are proposing that the Treasury Department issue a $1 trillion platinum coin as a way around the need to increase borrowing capacity.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stock Market Retest of the High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue until major cycles take over, and it ends. The 4550 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but there is still no sign of a major top.
SPX Intermediate trend: A retest of the high is underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Biden scaled back on his infrastructure bill. However, with all the remaining cards still in play, his economic agenda should be positive for gold.Inflation, bond yields, monetary policy… that’s all interesting and crucial to understand trends in the gold markets – but, hey, what’s up in politics? A lot has happened recently on this front. In particular, last month, the world was shocked by the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The messy pullover and the quick takeover of the country by the Taliban is not only the end of Biden’s honeymoon but also America’s great failure. Some analysts even say that the fall of Kabul is another Saigon time for the US. Indeed, it goes without saying that the collapse in Afghanistan is a huge blow to America’s reputation. So, it could weaken the faith in Uncle Sam and its currency, which could be positive for gold in the long run.
However, the end of the US mission in Afghanistan doesn’t pose any direct threats to America (although terrorism could thrive under the Taliban regime) or to the greenback. So, I don’t expect any substantial, long-lasting moves in gold prices (always remember that geopolitical events cause only short-lived fluctuations, if any).
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV is considered.
The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates?
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go?
Fundamental Updates
The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021.
The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4!
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences / Politics / cryptocurrency
By: Raymond_Matison
Almost all countries of the producing and developed world have made a policy decision as to how to define crypto currencies, and they do not define them as securities. The United States has not finalized its singular definition as its designation is not uniform among agencies: the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines virtual crypto currencies as commodities, while the Internal Revenue Service defines them as property on which to collect capital gains taxes. The U.S. Treasury Department Financial Crimes Enforcement Network sees them as “counterfeit money” to be treated accordingly, and the Securities Exchange Commission wants to treat them as securities, which they would regulate. It is clear, that there is a “turf war” taking place as to which agency is to exert control regulation over this new virtual asset. There is much at stake: much more than which agency will regulate cryptocurrencies or be able to “extract favors” from the implementers of this new asset class. However, if policy decisions are not constructive to supporting this fast-growing industry, or if this decision takes too long to reach, the dynamic entrepreneurs will move to countries which are more supportive.
Let’s be clear, decisions have consequences, and how we define and regulate cryptocurrencies will have long-term nation-impacting consequences. Political leaders base most of their decisions and cast their votes in Congress for near term political benefits – as most will be out of the government when the long term consequences become operative. For example, politician’s support for increased government spending is nearly universal, despite the fact that over the longer term government debt accumulates to consequential levels.
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: Anika_Walayat
British teen Emma Raducanu has rocked the tennis world by winning the US Open ($2.5 million prize money) and making history by being the first Brit to win Grand Slam Singles title in 44 years, instantly becoming one of the best know British sports stars barely weeks after collecting her A level results.
Her success has galvanised many youngsters across the UK to pick up their tennis rackets and head off for the local tennis courts. Where here we have one aspiring young Tennis player, Anika pleasing the crowds at Millhouses park. So watch this space of the next Emma Raducanu!
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Friday, September 24, 2021
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war is entirely reasonable as Evergrande failed to spook the markets more. Just wait for what happens when the markets come face to face with another unacknowledged event of this magnitude. In our era, it‘s about the contagion effect, manic-depressive market psychology, and uncertainty of the impact.
It‘s not only about China real estate cooling down, spilling over to Hong Kong. Wtll the House approval on the bill to suspend fresh borrowing obstacles and avoid a partial shutdown do? What would the Senate say – and then everyone as the tax tsunami keeps approaching? Global liquidity isn‘t rising after all either.
Fed taper is a side show, but still one that too many are glued to. The dollar would suffer if it doesn‘t materialize later today – and it won‘t be announced, which would make precious metals rejoice.
Back to stocks, these are also likely to welcome no taper. The Fed has been already tightening (which means these days it was decreasing the pace of expansion) through the back door, bringing down inflation expectations in spite of the real world input costs, shipping rates and frail supply chains challenges on top of the job market issues. Transitory inflation is still the mainstream thesis – the shift to real assets will become more accentuated once the realization of a higher and entrenched inflation arrives. And it‘s not about real estate and owners‘ equivalent rent either.
Friday, September 24, 2021
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: HGR
Buying a cheap mattress foam from Amazon, here's what to expect in terms delivery, packaging, Unboxing and of course use, what chemical smell to expect and how long will it take to dissipate. How much will the foam mattress expand and who best can use it i.e. is it thick enough for someone who weighs over 200lbs or is is just for small light adults and teens, find out in our latest real customer review.
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Friday, September 24, 2021
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Richard_Mills
The selloff in stocks that started last week and continued on Monday has some market observers wondering whether this is a “Minsky Moment”.
This refers to the idea that periods of bullish speculation will eventually lead to a crisis, wherein a sudden decline in optimism causes a spectacular market crash.
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Thursday, September 23, 2021
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs / Personal_Finance / Household Bills
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Gas Market Panic! Apparently energy firms are going bust, or are they? Wh at's the odds most of these firms going bust are going to soon reappear under a slightly different name with probably the same staff and premises. We are being SCAMMED! UK Energy customers are being SCAMMED out of their Fixed rate tariffs because the greedy basket energy firms did NOT HEDGE the natural gas price that they were busy encouraging prospective customers to fix at! Now they want to cancel the contracts by offloading the customers onto the regulators who is then going to dump the customers onto other energy firms on much higher tariffs, probably TRIPLE the tariffs that the customers had been fixed at. What a CON! What a SCAM! The directors of any energy company perpetuating such as scam should be blacklisted!
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