Saturday, January 19, 2019
David Morgan: Expect Stagflation and Silver Outperformance in 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me for a conversation on a range of topics, including his 2019 outlook for a number of different asset classes, most notably gold and silver. Don’t miss a fantastic preview of 2019 with the Silver Guru, David Morgan, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are trading relatively quiet this week as the U.S. stock market continues to show surprising strength. It’s surprising at least to investors who expected markets to reflect growing political threats to the economy. As the partial government shutdown enters an unprecedented 28th day, economists are warning of a significant hit to first quarter GDP.
It’s not that furloughed government workers contribute much to economic productivity. It’s that since they are now starting to miss paychecks, they will have less to spend into the economy. GDP measures the nominal size of the economy, not how productive or efficient or free or fair it is.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
Digital Luggage Scales Accuracy Tests - Top Tips for Holidays 2019 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: HGR
Planning your summer holidays for 2019? We'll here's what you need to know about cheap digital luggage scales that can be bought from the likes of Amazon for £10 or less, as we see how accurate and consistent typical digital luggage scales tend to be by using a variety of weight lifting plates to test a number of digital luggage scales.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
Why Brampton Manor Academy State School 41 Oxbridge Offers is Nothing to Celebrate! / Politics / Education
By: N_Walayat
The mainstream press has been busy today focused on how one London State school, Brampton Manor Academy has managed to achieve 41 offers of places at Cambridge and Oxford Universities, as though it is something to celebrate when the exact opposite is true! What about the hundreds of thousands of students from all of the other state schools? All this shows is how Oxbridge admissions are highly skewed towards those who know how to play the admissions system so as to engineer places into the Universities. Which is pretty much what the likes of the private schools have been doing for decades.
So, NO Brampton academy achieving 41 offers at Oxbridge is NOTHING CELEBRATE! The exact opposite is true! For it shows how little of Britain's state school talent actually makes it into Britain's top Universities which means they will not tend to churn out the best of Britain.
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Saturday, January 19, 2019
REMAIN Parliament Prepares to Subvert BrExit with Peoples Vote FIXED 2nd EU Referendum / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week Britain's inept Prime Minister Theresa May who stubbornly refused to do the right thing by resigning and thus further lost what little power she had left by means of two House of Common Votes, first on her EU Exit deal on which Parliament delivered a humiliating defeat on Tuesday, losing by 230 votes (432 to 202) the largest defeat of a Government in Parliamentary history which was then followed Wednesday's vote of confidence in her Government that only just managed to survive with the aid of 10 DUP MP's resulting in 325 to 306.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Gold Surges on Stock Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold investment demand reversed sharply higher in recent months, fueling a strong gold rally. The big stock-market selloff rekindled interest in prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold. These mounting investment-capital inflows into gold are likely to persist and intensify. Both weaker stock markets and higher gold prices will continue to drive more investment demand, growing gold’s upleg.
Early in Q4’18, gold reached a major inflection point. It languished during the first three quarters of 2018, down 8.5% year-to-date by the end of Q3. Investors wanted nothing to do with alternative investments with the stock markets powering to new record highs. The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had rallied 9.0% in the first 3/4ths of last year. That left gold deeply out of favor heading into Q4.
But a critical psychological switch was flipped as the SPX started sliding last quarter. After long years with little material downside, stock traders had been lulled into overpowering complacency. They were shocked awake as the SPX plunged 14.0% in Q4, its worst quarter since Q3’11. They poured back into gold as stocks burned, driving it a strong 7.6% higher in Q4! Rekindled investment demand was the driver.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Macroeconomic Outlook for 2019 and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Will 2019 be better than 2018 for the yellow metal? We invite you to read our today’s article, painting the macroeconomic outlook for 2018 and learn whether fundamental factors will become less or more friendly toward gold.
What will 2019 be like? We do not know the precise answer, but we notice a few important economic trends that will shape the new year.
1. Interest rates will continue to rise.
2. However, the Fed’s monetary tightening will slow down.
3. Just when the ECB will start normalizing its own monetary policy.
4. And when the stimulus of the US fiscal policy will start to dissipate.
Friday, January 18, 2019
Crude Oil Price Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.
You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Stock Market’s Medium Term is No Longer Bullish. It is Now Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Now that the S&P 500 has reached its 50% fibonacci retracement, its medium term outlook is no longer decisively bullish. As we mentioned before, 13 of 15 historical 20% declines saw a pullback/retest after a 50% retracement.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Getting Stuffed in Turkey - Go for All Inclusive Hotel Holidays 2019 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Planning your holidays abroad for Summer 2019 and wondering whether to go all inclusive or not? We'll our experience is that it is definitely better to go for inclusive buffets if at a good hotel that offers good choice of dishes as it saves on money and a lot of time hunting for restaurants, waiting for the dishes to be cooked and then whether they live up to expectations as our experience of Letoonia Club and Hotel Resort's Lykia restaurant situated about 40 miles south of Dalaman and across the bay from the city of Fethiye illustrates.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Leaving aside our usual inclusion of macro fundamentals and market ratios, today let’s take a simple technical look at the S&P 500 and gold.
As the US stock market was becoming deeply oversold (and over-hated, sentiment-wise) in December we planned for a holiday seasonal bounce, which finally arrived with the immediate reversal after the Christmas Eve massacre when the machines (and a few human casino patrons) drove it to its downside climax. The bounce was almost a certainty, given the sentiment backdrop of the moment.
Our (NFTRH) view however, has been for an eventual decline from a significant momentum divergence (MACD & RSI) to the obvious support of 2100-2200 (which is also the rough measurement from the bearish pattern) on SPX per this weekly chart. The current market bounce was expected and necessary to rebuild the conditions for enough downside to meet our target.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Fable Media Launches New GoWin Online Casino Affiliate Site in UK / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Friday, January 18, 2019
The End of Apple! / Companies / Apple
By: Stephen_McBride
“Oh man, that’s almost a month’s rent for me…”
Here I am sitting in a cab in New York City.
I’m headed uptown to Columbia University where we’re holding the first-ever American Disruption Summit.
You can register to watch for free here… more on that in a minute.
The driver and I are talking about the absurd price tag of the latest Apple (AAPL) iPhone.
He’s shocked when I tell him the cheapest model is $1,149.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Never in our lifetimes has American politics been so marked by division and dysfunction.
The longest partial government shutdown in history occurred after the Democrat-controlled Congress wouldn’t compromise with President Trump on a border wall. The impasse is but one symptom of a deeper malady – one that threatens to wreak wider social and financial instability in the years ahead.
Put plainly, the pillars of the American system as we have known it are eroding.
No longer are we unified in support of the Constitution and a (more or less) free market economy. A growing faction within one party favors socialism and outright rejects foundational American principles such as free speech, gun rights, and limited government.
Friday, January 18, 2019
Four Breakout Stocks to Watch / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Harry_Boxer
Here are four stocks from a range of industries breaking out primarily on news, continuing strong technical trends off December lows.
Attunity Ltd. (ATTU) surged $1.48 to $23.39 on 709,200 shares Wednesday on more than double its average volume. The move came ahead of the data management software company's announcement today that it will release its quarterly and annual financial results on January 31. The move positioned the stock right up against a triple top going back to November. The stock's On-Balance Volume indicator is making new highs ahead of price, a positive sign. A break through here could lead to $28 next.
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Creating the Best Office Space / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
It is pretty sad to say that in the modern world the two places we spend the most time are at work and in bed sleeping. Put like that you might feel a little down but making the best of your office space can put a better spin on things, and according to the experts at Bed SOS, having a positive workspace can actually help you sleep better at night as you stress levels will be lower and your enjoyment factor will be higher, even at work. So how do you create the best office space working within the constraints you have?Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2019
S&P 500 at Resistance Level, Downward Correction Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks went slightly up yesterday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term uptrend, before closing just 0.2% higher. Is this a short-term topping pattern or just another consolidation within an uptrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors' sentiment remained bullish ahead of the quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index continued its rebound off the December the 26th medium-term low of 2,346.58. The index traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 on that day. Then the market rallied and retraced almost 50% of the downtrend. It broke slightly above 2,600 mark on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% yesterday.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is at 2,635-2,640, marked by December the 14th daily gap down of 2,635.07-2,637.27. There is also a resistance level of 50% retracement of the whole downtrend from the mentioned September's record high at 2,643.7. The next resistance level is at 2,675-2,685, marked by the early December local highs. On the other hand, the level of support is at 2,580-2,600, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,550-2,570.
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Thursday, January 17, 2019
Mauldin: My 2019 Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I recently did a “2019 Investment Outlook” webinar with my business partner Steve Blumenthal.
We looked at three topics: recession probability, credit conditions, and stock valuations. I can tell, we went deep on the webinar. You can read a transcript or view a recording here.
Here I’ll give you an abbreviated version of that webinar.
Economists Can’t Recognize Recessions in Real Time
Steve started the webinar by noting we are late in an economic cycle. He showed the chart below to illustrate how all cycles have expansion periods that end with recession.
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Thursday, January 17, 2019
The Fed Caused the Stock Market Sell-Off—but Not with Rate Hikes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I recently argued Jerome Powell did the right thing by raising rates a mere 25 basis points.
He did what Janet Yellen should have done years ago. And for the first time since Volcker, a Fed chair declared the Fed’s independence from the market and politicians.
Besides the Fed’s dual mandate, Greenspan, Bernanke, and, in particular, Yellen had a third unofficial mandate. It was to make sure that asset prices keep rising.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
No for Brexit Deal, Yes for May. And What for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
71 days. That’s all that separates us from the Brexit deadline. And the UK has still no clear path forward exiting the EU. Does gold have one?
Today's analysis features possible scenarios for the UK and for gold along with their likelihood. In the current political situation, it's a must-read.
Parliament Rejects May’s Brexit Deal
On Tuesday, the UK Parliament voted on Theresa May’s Brexit deal for leaving the EU. As expected, the MPs rejected her proposition. What was really surprising was the scale of defeat. The parliament voted 432-202 against May’s divorce deal, marking the worst defeat in modern British history.
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Thursday, January 17, 2019
Macro Could Weaken After US Government Shutdown. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P is close the reaching its 50% retracement, which is the standard target before a pullback/retest. After the pullback/retest, what happens next depends on the macro economy. If the macro economy deteriorates, then stocks will keep going down. If the macro economy weakens, then stocks will keep going up. But even if the bull market has more room left, it doesn’t have a lot of room. A 1999-scenario (1 last year of the bull market) is a best case scenario.