Friday, May 31, 2024

Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This article is part 2 of 2 of my recent extensive analysis - Stock Market, Interest Rates, Crypto's and the Inflation Red Pill which was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Contents

Stock Market Trend Forecast
Swings Analysis
AI Stocks Portfolio
TESLA
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun
Time to take the RED Pill
Crypto Correction
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bull Market Tops
Crypto's Exit Strategy
Coinbase MSTR 2.0
So much for the Rise of China Narrative

Friday, May 31, 2024

Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Last month, Zimbabwe officials introduced a gold-backed currency in an effort to stabilize the country’s economy.

At the time, I warned that a gold-backed currency would be a great step, but that it wasn’t going to solve Zimbabwe’s problems unless the government changed its ways.

So far, things don’t look good.

Government officials are already pushing miners in the African nation to produce more gold. This would allow the government to expand the money supply.

Friday, May 31, 2024

India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

India imported more silver through the first four months of 2024 than it did in the entirety of last year.

Indian silver imports totaled 4,172 tons of silver from January through April. That compares with 455 tons during the same period in 2023.

India imported 3,625 tons of silver last year.

India ranks as the world's number one silver consumer.

Friday, May 31, 2024

Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD HAS DONE ITS JOB

For most of us who understand what gold is (and, what it isn’t), gold continues to perform as reasonably expected. Rather, its price continues to reflect the ongoing loss of purchasing power in the U.S. dollar. Gold, itself, isn’t doing anything at all. (see Not About Gold; All About The Dollar)

Short term nominal profits notwithstanding, gold’s value is the same as it is always. Gold is real money and its value is in its use as money. Gold is a medium of exchange, a measure of value, and a long-term store of value.

Friday, May 31, 2024

Gold Stocks Catching Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

After getting off to a slow start in this upleg, gold miners’ stocks are beginning to catch up with their metal.  Gold stocks lagged dreadfully early on, but are increasingly outperforming in gold’s remarkable breakout surge of recent months.  These mounting gold-stock gains are boosting bullish sentiment, attracting in more traders accelerating the upside.  This virtuous circle of capital inflows still has a long way to run.

If gold stocks can’t leverage gold’s gains, they aren’t worth owning.  While miners have high potential to soar with their metal, they bear big additional risks.  Those include all kinds of operational, geological, regulatory, and geopolitical challenges and problems.  And they are all heaped on top of the biggest risk of all, gold price trends!  Yet that’s the only risk in gold bullion, so miners’ stocks really need to outperform.

If they don’t, speculators and investors are much better off sticking to gold itself.  Historically the leading GDX gold-stock ETF has amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x.  This range’s lower end is probably the minimum acceptable to compensate traders for gold stocks’ big additional risks.  And the upper end is where this high-flying sector can quickly multiply wealth.  Unfortunately much of gold’s latest upleg saw neither.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Time to take the RED Pill / Personal_Finance / How to Guides

By: Nadeem_Walayat

INFLATION IS HOW WE BEAT THE SYSTEM! BY BEING INVESTED IN ASSETS THAT INFLATE FASTER THAN THE RATE OF GOVERNMENT STEALTH INFLATION THEFT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER OF FIAT.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet / Economics / Recession 2024

By: Michael_Pento

The recent spate of economic data continues to point to a weakening economy, but one that is not yet precipitously falling into recession.

The Philly Fed Index was released late last week. The diffusion index for current general activity declined 11 points to 4.5 in May. The index for new orders declined from 12.2 to -7.9, its first negative reading since February, and the shipments index fell from 19.1 to -1.2, its first negative reading since January. We also had US industrial production data released this week. It was flat in April from the previous month, while factory output fell by 0.3%.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold and silver soared and plunged together, but… Not at the same pace. And this can tell a lot.

Recent Movements and Their Implications

The way in which both precious metals move relative to each other is not random. It has specific rhythms and patterns, and understanding what it means can give one an extra edge over other market participants. Every now and then, the gold-to-silver ratio moves in a specific manner that indicates something important for the following weeks – and that’s exactly what happened.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: The_Gold_Report

USD index has given back recent gains this morning with bond yields continuing to rise.

Gold (+.2%) and silver (+.77%) are rebounding very slightly but there has occurred some s/t technical damage, especially for gold. Copper (- .2%) and oil (-.08%) are lower, while stock index futures are modestly higher across the board.

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the comments I receive is that the Reverse Repo liquidity pool getting drained,, won't that mean that the stock market then hits a brick wall?

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: MoneyMetals

As hopes for rate cuts fade, metals markets are giving back some of their recent gains.

On Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed central bankers are frustrated by the lack of progress on inflation. After several months of official inflation readings coming in hotter than expected, the Fed has been forced to back off on previous plans to ease multiple times throughout the year.

Remarks by Fed policymakers were widely interpreted as hawkish, with some even suggesting that rate hikes might be necessary. 

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs / Politics / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

Governments constantly tinker with prices. Government people claim it's in our best interest, but price manipulation creates all kinds of unseen negative consequences.
Sometimes governments set price ceilings, mandating that the cost of something can't rise above a certain level. One example we see often is price gouging laws. In extreme cases, the government will even implement price controls. President Richard Nixon did this in the 1970s.

Sometimes governments set price floors such as minimum wages (After all, a wage is simply the price of labor).

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential recently wrapped up their latest earnings season.  These fundamentally-superior smaller gold producers delivered big last quarter, reporting spectacular results.  The potent combination of record gold prices, lower mining costs, and better production fueled some of their richest profits ever.  Yet mid-tiers still remain way undervalued.

The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF.  With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX.  That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings.  Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold.  Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k.  Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+.  Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!

Friday, May 24, 2024

Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

All eyes today will be on the Fed and it's interest rate decision, weren't we supposed be having a cut in March? That's gone! Kicked down the road. So no rate cut today or at the next meeting nor likely in June. And each time the Fed holds the MSM clowns cry stocks must fall due to failure for rate cuts to materialise all whilst the bull market continues to relentlessly grind higher.

Everybody is obsessed with when will the rates be cut without understanding why rates should be cut!

Friday, May 24, 2024

Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors / Stock-Markets / Banksters

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed and two other U.S. banking regulators are going to significantly reduce a planned increase in capital requirements for the country's large banks.

As a reminder, the regulators were planning a 16% increase in capital levels and a 20% increase in RWAs (risk-weighted assets) for the banks with total assets of more than $100B. These changes should have improved the banks’ financial resilience and prepared them to better absorb potential losses.

Friday, May 24, 2024

Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024

By: EWI

Another bank failure, another underperforming share price.

Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank was closed down on Friday, April 26, and the assets were sold to Fulton Bank. Republic First becomes the first bank failure of 2024. Given our outlook for the stock market and the economy, it will probably not be the last.

Thursday, May 23, 2024

AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Portfolio is now 76.7% invested, 23.3% cash with the changes largely due to selling 89% of my MSTR holding during it's FOMO climb that topped out at $1865.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/xxxx patrons only

Stocks in or very near buying ranges worth accumulating are -

Thursday, May 23, 2024

All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

All that glitters isn’t gold.

Silver also has quite a shine lately.

While gold has gotten the headlines, silver has had a solid bull run over the last several months. In fact, the white metal has outperformed gold in this gold bull market.

Last week, silver charted an 11 percent gain, cracking $30 an ounce for the first time in over a decade.

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Wall Street is ecstatic after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit 40,000 for the first time ever. The nominal record makes for plenty of pithy headlines.

The Dow is indeed racing higher in terms of depreciating U.S. fiat dollars. But what about in terms of real money – gold and silver?

Thursday, May 23, 2024

S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Submissions

 The S&P 500 index of large cap U.S. stocks has rallied +49% since the October 2022 lows, and +28% since the most recent October 2023 lows.  Bulls argue that the equity rally has much more time to run. Typical bull markets last about 5 years. If we consider the January to October 2023 correction to have been a significant bear market that reset the excesses from the prior bull market, then the bull market longevity argument makes senses. Recall that the S&P 500 fell -26% from January to October 2023 following the post-Covid “bull market”, resulting in +108% equity gains.  On the other hand, if we argue the bearish case, Covid distortions likely mean that the typical lengths (and magnitudes) of the bull and bear phases can’t be applied today. Bears could argue that the 2022 correction/bear market represented a mid-cycle correction or just a cooling of the excessive movement from April 2000 to December 2021. In any case, whether this is year 4 of a bull market that begin in 2020 or year 2 of a bull market that begin in 2022 would seem to have little predictive power of how much longer equities will rally, assuming again that Covid distortions will skew historical trends.