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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 15, 2015

U.S. Stock Markets Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Reviewing the US stock market picture from a few different angles...

NFTRH been using the Equity Put/Call ratio to gauge pressure on the US stock market for all of 2015. Many people think that anxiety indicators like this and the VIX are contrary indicators (i.e. when they spike you buy the fear in the markets, which often does work well) but when smoothing out CPCE using a moving average (weekly EMA 20 in this case) you get a trend.

The market benefited over long stretches from the calm atmosphere and the down trend in put buying vs. call buying. One explanation is that the market felt safe in mommy and daddy's arms (Bernanke and Yellen, amidst 'peak confidence' in the Fed with a side of Goldilocks).

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Gold Miners’ $1200-Cost Fallacy / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The entire gold-mining sector was crushed last month, suffering a full-blown panic.  This was triggered by an extreme shorting attack on gold by American futures speculators.  As fear-blinded traders rushed for the gold-stock exits, they claimed their selling was rational because gold miners’ very existence was threatened by such low gold prices.  But that’s a total fallacy, this sector has no problem weathering sub-$1200 gold.

The recent pain in gold stocks has been excruciating.  This sector’s benchmark of choice these days is Van Eck Global’s Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, better known by its symbol GDX.  It closely mirrors gold stocks’ long-time leading sector index, the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index that trades as HUI.  The carnage in these two gold-stock metrics has been incredible, shattering the resolve of most contrarian traders.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 14, 2015

Will China Yuan Currency Devaluation Cause a Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com David Zeiler writes: Stocks tumbled again early today (Wednesday) after a second round of yuan currency devaluation by the Chinese central bank.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 250 points, or 1.5%, in Wednesday morning trading. That decline followed a 212-point loss (1.2%) Tuesday.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 14, 2015

Fed will Cut 'Transitory' in September / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A Russian saying goes "nothing is more permanent than temporary". At the Federal Reserve, "transitory" may mean "permanently", or could also mean "we have no clue". Oil has dropped by 57% since over the last 12 months but the +200 PhDs at the world's biggest central bank continue to describe lower energy prices as "transitory". At the June FOMC, the Fed made some progress and finally dropped its phrase from the FOMC statement that "energy prices have stabilized".

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Gold and Silver Stocks Get a Reprieve / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector has held recent lows and a rebound is underway. Gold held $1080/oz for three straight weeks and has pushed as high as $1126/oz this week. The gold miners (GDX and GDXJ) surged the first half of the week and Silver has also gained. We believe that this move is more likely to be a relief rally before Gold ultimately tests $1000/oz rather than the start of a new bull market.

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InvestorEducation

Friday, August 14, 2015

7 Key Rules Contrarian Investors Should Adhere To / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Sol_Palha

"Given a sufficient number of people and an adequate amount of time you can create insurmountable opposition to the most inconsequential idea." ~ Anonymous

Contrarian investing is a dynamic field and not a static one. The assumption that it's a static field is held by the new breed of fashion contrarians, whose only donation to this field has been to glamorize it and distort the correct notion of being a contrarian investor. These fashion contrarians are no different from those with the mass mindset; they only pretend to do things differently, but the moment fear or uncertainty is in the air, they flee for the exits like bandits being chased by the hounds of hell. A true contrarian in most cases understands the basic rules of mass psychology. If you are not familiar with these rules, you are doing yourself a disservice and should catch up on them ASAP.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 14, 2015

Inside the Bank of England - Video / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Anika_Walayat

Take a journey from a unique perspective into the very heart of Britain's financial system, it's central bank, the Bank of England.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 14, 2015

Debt Deleveraging as a Biblical Plague / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Eventful days in the middle of summer. Just as the Greek Pandora’s box appears to be closing for the holidays (but we know what happens once it’s open), and Europe’s ultra-slim remnants of democracy erode into the sunset, China moves in with a one-off but then super-cubed renminbi devaluation. And 100,000 divergent opinions get published, by experts, pundits and just about everyone else under the illusion they still know what is going on.

We’ve been watching from the sidelines for a few days, letting the first storm subside. But here’s what we think is happening. It helps to understand, and repeat, a few things:

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Crude Oil's Slippery Slope: How Far Will Prices Fall? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

One prominent analyst says oil prices will drop much further

Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Supply and Demand Will Rescue Gold Mining Stocks Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: The_Gold_Report

Money managers Doug Loud and Jeff Mosseri of Greystone Asset Management LLC. have some simple advice for gold investors: Relax. Supply and demand will reassert its reign quite soon, and, when that time comes, both gold and gold equities will appreciate quickly and significantly from their current levels. In this interview with The Gold Report, they highlight several producers and explorers with the management, cash and projects needed to spring forward when the market turns.

The Gold Report: The gold sector entered full-blown panic mode in July with the Bloomberg analysts forecasting a dip below $1,000 per ounce ($1,000/oz) this year, and Deutsche Bank forecasting $750/oz. Is this just fear feeding on fear, or is there something else going on?

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Gold and Silver Offer The Most Profitable Secular Opportunity Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldSilverWorlds

July was a horrible month for precious metals prices. Sentiment reached levels never seen before. As metals and the miners broke through a long term support line, so did pessimism.

To get an idea of the level of pessimism, we are including a very long term chart going back to 1992 (courtesy of Sentimentrader). As readers can see, market sentiment in the last 2 years is worse than the bear market lows of 1998 – 2000.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 14, 2015

Stock Market 7 Year Crash Cycle - What’s So Special about the Number “7”? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Peter_Degraaf

Everything in life moves in cycles. Seconds, minutes, hours, days, all add up to become part of a cycle.  Some cycles, such as the beating of the heart move fast, while a millennium moves very slow.  This article will draw your attention to a very important 7 year cycle.  (Charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated).

The number 7 is much more prevalent in nature than most of us realize:  There are 7 oceans, 7 continents, 7 vertebrae in the neck,           

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 14, 2015

Trading Markets Boot and Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian : In my new office, that I had just rented, after starting my own newsletter business: The Daily Dirtnap.

You see, I had just walked away from a job at Barclays Capital, which had bought the Lehman broker-dealer out of bankruptcy. They had offered me a seat trading ETFs, just like I’d been doing at Lehman. I turned it down. I loved working at Lehman Brothers, but I could not see myself trading ETFs for even one more day.

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Commodity Prices Weakness Persists / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, good friend Gary Shilling gives us deeper insight into the global economic trends that have led to China’s headline-making, market-shaking devaluation of the renminbi. He reminds us that today’s currency moves and lagging growth are the (perhaps inevitable) outcome of China massive expansion of output for many products that started more than a decade ago. China was at the epicenter of a commodity bubble that got underway in 2002, soon after China joined the World Trade Organization.

As manufacturing shifted from North America and Europe to China –with China now consuming more than 40% of annual global output of copper, tin, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metal while stockpiling increased quantities of iron ore, petroleum and other commodities – many thought a permanent commodity boom was here.

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

Desolation Row: The Silver Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Silver peaked in 1980 and then crashed into “Silver Desolation Row” in 1999 – 2001, like now.

The 1970s decade was the time for commodity price increases and inflation.  The 1980s and 1990s saw a preference for paper assets and stocks, while commodities, gold, and silver prices collapsed.

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Commodities

Friday, August 14, 2015

The Fed, Exter’s Pyramid and Gold – When John Exter Met Paul Volcker / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold prices were USD 1,117.35, EUR 1005.54 and GBP 715.56 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold prices were USD 1,116.80, EUR 1003.23 and GBP 717.18 per ounce.
[LBMA AM prices]

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Politics

Friday, August 14, 2015

Why It’s Not Always Good to be a Professional / Politics / Employment

By: Walter_Brasch

Decades ago, newspaper reporters had low wages and no bylines.

As expected, they were a bit testy about the low wages.

So, publishers figured out that if they gave reporters bylines, it would soothe their savage egos.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 13, 2015

China’s Doing Yellen’s Job and Creating a Trillion Dollar Profit Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Despite what the markets seem to think and many news sources would have you believe, China’s move to devalue the yuan by 1.9% is not an act of desperation intended to prop up a failing economy. It’s not a surprise. And, it sure as heck is not the end of the financial universe as we know it.

Instead, it’s a brilliant move that singlehandedly changes the investing landscape and creates a fabulous new set of profits if you’ve got the guts and the smarts to make your move.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 13, 2015

China's Yuan Devaluation Creates This Profit Play for U.S. Oil Investors / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: When the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the value of the yuan by 2% on Tuesday, it was the biggest one-day drop for the currency in more than 20 years.

Crude oil and stocks sank on Tuesday, as well, with oil scraping six-year lows.

Tuesday's action would have been enough… but then the yuan plunged all over again on Wednesday, despite PBOC efforts to prop it up, triggering even more volatility.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 13, 2015

German-US Bond Yield Spread Breaks Out / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Bond yields fell across the board since mid-June, but the more meaningful fact for currency traders remains yield differentials. For EURUSD watchers, the rate of decline in 10-year bund has been slower than its US counterpart, which led to a stabilisation in the German-US spread (not US-German) to the extent of breaking above an important 3 ½ year trendline.

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