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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, December 18, 2017

Gold – Technical Obfuscation, Fundamentals, Predictions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Kelsey_Williams

It is pretty much expected today that any investment analysis with justifiable conclusions will be steeped in technical study that includes lots of charts.

This seems especially true of gold.

Which is all well and good, I suppose; except for the obfuscation:

Obfuscation is the obscuring of the intended meaning of communication by making the message difficult to understand, usually with confusing and ambiguous language. The obfuscation might be either unintentional or intentional (although intent usually is connoted), and is accomplished with circumlocution (talking around the subject), the use of jargon (technical language of a profession), and the use of an argot (ingroup language) of limited communicative value to outsiders.[1]

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Commodities

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Gold And Silver Futures Swing From Bearish To Bullish In Just Two Weeks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Rubino

After holding onto huge, unprofitable long positions for months, gold and silver futures speculators are finally giving up and bailing out, while commercial traders (who take the opposite side of these trades, since every long requires an offsetting short) are closing out their shorts at a near-record pace.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Relief Rally in Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent days the gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) traded within 1% of our downside targets of GDX $21.00 and GDXJ $29.50. Last week we wrote: “the miners are getting oversold and a bounce could begin from those levels.” GDXJ troughed first last week at $29.84 while GDX printed a low of $21.27 on Monday. From their September peaks down to those lows, GDX and GDXJ had declined nearly 17% and 21% respectively. They are oversold, nearly touched good support and now the rate hike is behind them. We expect a rally in the sector well into January.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

We have been expecting a seasonal rally in gold, silver and the miners off of a bottom due in either December or January, as is typical of the sector. I’ve marked up Sentimentrader‘s seasonal gold pattern to show the secondary low made (on average over 30 years) in December and the January ramp up that follows (on average).

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Commodities

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Gold Bullish on US Fed Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has been battered lower in recent months as gold-futures speculators fled in dread of the Fed-rate-hike boogeyman.  As universally expected, the Fed’s 5th rate hike of this cycle indeed came to pass this week.  When gold didn’t collapse as irrationally feared, the cowering futures traders were quick to start returning.  Past Fed rate hikes have actually proven very bullish for gold, and this latest one will be no exception.

Back in early September, gold was sitting pretty near $1348.  It had rallied dramatically out of its usual summer-doldrums low in its typical major autumn rally, blasting 11.2% higher in just 2.0 months.  But even way back then, Fed-rate-hike fears for the FOMC’s December 13th meeting started creeping in.  When gold peaked on September 7th, federal-funds futures implied December rate-hike odds running just 32%.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Strap Yourself In - We Are About To See Some Big Moves In Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

Recent price action

The last week has seen the metals and miners drop down into support regions. As I write this, we are sitting just over major support for most of the charts I follow.

Whereas the GDX likely provides the cleanest picture of the market potential right now, I will be providing you guidance about the GDX in my analysis below. And, while I maintain a strong bullish bias for 2018, the action we see in the coming weeks will tell us when we can begin to take a more immediate bullish perspective.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

December 2017 FOMC Meeting and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, the Fed released its most recent monetary policy statement. How can it affect the financial markets?

In line with expectations, the Fed raised the federal funds rate target by 25 base points to the 1.25-1.50 percent range. This way, the U.S. central bank delivered the third hike this year, and the fifth rate increase in the post-crisis period. The most important paragraph of the released monetary policy statement is, thus, as follows:

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Gold’s Upside Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In our Monday’s analysis, we emphasized that a lot changed from the short-term point of view, even though price changes in gold and silver were small. On Tuesday, we argued that closing our short position on Tuesday had been justified. Mining stocks soared by over 3% making yesterday’s session the biggest daily rally since August. A lot has changed indeed. Will the rally continue for much longer?

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Year-end US Interest Rate Hike Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%
– Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%
– Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
– Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy
– No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small role in the payment system’

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

Science Investing writes: Short Term Price Trend

WTI crude oil started a bullish trend in June 2017. We forecast further upside in the crude oil complex.

For the past month we’ve witnessed a sideways movement in the WTI. It may have traced out a triangle pattern. The move from the 24th of November top looks complex, which is typical for a C-wave of a triangle. Triangles typically resolve into the direction of the greater trend. Hence we forecast price action to the upside short term.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

A Pivotal Week For Gold And Crude Oil / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Alabama Election, FOMC Meeting and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Democrats won a fight for the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama. What does it mean for the gold market?

Yesterday, a special election for the United States Senate took place in Alabama. The vote was organized to fill the vacancy which arose when Jeff Sessions resigned from being a Senator to serve as U.S. Attorney General.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

New York Fed Inflation Gauge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The New York Fed created a new inflation gauge. What does it mean for the gold market?

The standard inflation measures are the CPI and the PCEPI. They are useful indicators of changes in consumer prices. However, they omit producer prices, commodity prices, or asset prices. Hence, the central banks’ focus on consumer prices makes them blind to asset prices bubbles and the broad inflation pressure. This was the case of both the Great Depression and the Great Recession: the CPI was stable, so the Fed did not perceived its monetary policy as easy, despite the impressive rise in stock and real estate markets.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts to Continue? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming
– Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets
– Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions
– Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history
– ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts
– Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table)
– “If history is still reliable, January will be a great month to own precious metals”

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Will Gold and Diamonds Rival Bitcoin in Tokenized Economy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

Whenever I look at the Bitcoin price chart, it makes no sense and that means investors no longer move the market, but rather, the market moves them. If the prices are skyrocketing, instead of sitting back and looking at what’s behind the rally, they are now joining the bandwagon without taking a second to think.

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Commodities

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Gold Price 100% Bullish Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

During yesterday’s week, we saw breakdowns and major declines in all parts of the precious metals sector. Even the HUI to gold ratio broke below the key low. Yet, there is something that we saw based on last week’s closing prices that had 100% bullish efficiency in the past few years. What is it and how we can use this knowledge?

Before moving to the details of the above bullish sign, let’s check what changed in gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Monday, December 11, 2017

Is This The Beginning Of The Next Silver Rush? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: OilPrice_Com

....

 


Commodities

Monday, December 11, 2017

The Dow Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

This next set of ratio charts I consider to be the most important ratio charts if you are deciding whether to be an investor in the INDU or in Gold.

When the price is rising The INDU ( Dow Jones Industrial Average ) (a proxy for General Stock Markets) is rising against Gold , and when it is falling Gold is rising against the Dow.

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Commodities

Monday, December 11, 2017

Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: John_Rubino

It took a lot longer than it should have, but gold futures traders have finally started behaving “normally.” The speculators who were extremely, stubbornly long – and who are usually wrong when they’re this excited — had maintained their over-optimistic bets when they should have been stampeding for the exits, making the last few months both boring and depressing for gold bugs and related investors.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 09, 2017

Is Gold Really Strong? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Silver and mining stocks declined for yet another day, but this time gold ended the session with a (slight, but still) gain. How can we interpret the latter? Is it a sign of strength?

In short, not at all. In yesterday’s, alert we emphasized that gold’s breakdown was one of the key developments that one should consider while analyzing the precious metals market. The tiny upswing that we saw in gold yesterday was a classic example of a post-breakout pause. Let’s take a closer look (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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