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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forecast - 45 Days Until A Multi Year Breakout In Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today is the day we want to warn our followers that we expect the precious metals to continue to base with a fairly narrow price range for about 45 to 65 more days before upside pricing pressures start to take hold of the markets.  There has been quite a bit of chatter about Gold breaking above $1300 recently.  Many people have been expecting it to move much higher fairly quickly.  We don’t believe that will be the case – but expect it have another significant rally in April, May or June.

Monthly Gold Forecast Chart – Posted October 2018

Back in early October 2018, we shared this chart with all of our followers suggesting that Gold and precious metals would rally to above $1300 near December/January using our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system.  We’ve been suggesting to our followers for many months that Gold, Silver, and miners would begin a new upside price swing, yet we knew the big breakout moves were still many months away.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Break above $1300 in Gold Forms Elliott Wave Impulse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Last Friday Gold managed to break above $1300. The yellow metal has therefore broken above 8 year bearish channel in a weekly closing basis. The break also allows the metal to close back above the ascending trend support from Nov 30, 2015 low as the chart below shows.

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Commodities

Monday, January 28, 2019

Will Crude Oil Find Support Above $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb.  We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins.  Our researchers at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com believe historical resistance near $54~55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Why Everyone’s Talking About Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been following some of the research posts by some of the biggest names in the precious metals industry, you may understand “why” so many people are so excited about the opportunities in Gold and Silver recently.  There are so many facets to the fundamental and emotional functions of precious metals as an industrial commodity as well as a safe-haven investment to protect against risk and to hedge against inflation.  Old school traders were taught to “watch gold, oil, and bonds” for signs of concern, weakness and as a means of gauging total market sentiment.  The idea behind this statement was these market tend to act as the “canary in the coal mine” in terms of fear and risk.

Recently, we posted an article that suggested Gold, Silver and many other precious metals would move in unison as this new price expansion takes place (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-moving-in-unison-for-a-massive-price-advance-part-ii/).  Many of our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold will rocket well above $1400 sometime near May or June of 2019.  These predictive modeling tools help us to identify opportunities and price moves well ahead of the other research firms available today.  Our unique tools can actually pinpoint times/dates when breakout moves should take place and allow traders to prepare for these moves months in advance – like today.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Gold Price Is Rallying in All Other Fiat Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins us for a 2019 outlook. I’ll ask him if the thinks the recent stock market rally has legs – and also for his forecast for gold this year. And Greg has some very interesting news regarding the yellow metal which – to his surprise – hardly anyone knows about. Don’t miss another fantastic interview with Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets traded modestly lower through Thursday’s close as the U.S. Senate failed to pass bills to re-open the government. All the metals are up today however.

President Trump’s compromise deal garnered a majority but drew just one Democrat vote and came up a few shy of the 60 needed. So the shutdown persists – along with growing partisan rancor and pettiness.

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Commodities

Friday, January 25, 2019

Gold Stocks Upleg Pauses / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish.  This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out.  Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally.  But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused.  The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.

Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable.  This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX dominates this space with little competition.

Back in early September, the gold stocks plunged to a major 2.6-year secular low per GDX.  This sector suffered a brutal forced capitulation on cascading stop-loss selling, devastating sentiment.  The triggering catalyst was gold getting pounded to its own major lows in mid-August on record futures short selling.  At worst GDX fell to $17.57 on close, which was down an ugly 24.4% year-to-date.  Most traders fled in disgust.

But major new uplegs are born in peak despair, and that was it.  The gold stocks started recovering out of those fundamentally-absurd levels, gradually carving a solid upleg.  By early January GDX had rallied 22.3% higher in 3.7 months, fueling more-optimistic sector sentiment.  Plenty of speculators and investors including me were comparing 2019’s setup for gold stocks to the first half of 2016, a wildly-lucrative stretch.

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Commodities

Friday, January 25, 2019

The Financial Secret Behind Germany’s Green Energy Revolution / Commodities / Renewable Energy

By: Ellen_Brown

The “Green New Deal” endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D.-N.Y., and more than 40 other House members has been criticized as imposing a too-heavy burden on the rich and upper-middle-class taxpayers who will have to pay for it. However, taxing the rich is not what the Green New Deal resolution proposes. It says funding would come primarily from certain public agencies, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and “a new public bank or system of regional and specialized public banks.”

Funding through the Federal Reserve may be controversial, but establishing a national public infrastructure and development bank should be a no-brainer. The real question is why we don’t already have one, as do China, Germany and other countries that are running circles around us in infrastructure development. Many European, Asian and Latin American countries have their own national development banks, as well as belong to bilateral or multinational development institutions that are jointly owned by multiple governments. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, which considers itself “independent” of government, national development banks are wholly owned by their governments and carry out public development policies.

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Commodities

Friday, January 25, 2019

Saudi Arabia Warns: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia isn’t buying the peak oil demand narrative.  

OPEC’s largest producer continues to expect global oil demand to keep rising at least by 2040 and sees itself as the oil producer best equipped to continue meeting that demand, thanks to its very low production costs.

Saudi Arabia will be the one to pump the last barrel of oil in the world, but it doesn’t see the ‘last barrel of oil’ being pumped for decades and decades to come.  

“I don’t see peak [oil] demand happening in 10 years or even by 2040,” Amin Nasser, president and chief executive officer of Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco told CNN Business’ Emerging Markets Editor John Defterios on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 24, 2019

If the Recent Sell-Off Spurred You to Buy Gold, You Have to Read This / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: John_Mauldin

BY ROBERT ROSS : Gold has done well during the latest sell-off in the markets.

But it’s not surprising. Gold has always been seen as a safe haven. When the markets tumble, investors flock into this asset.

In the global financial crisis, the S&P 500 plunged 55.6% between October 2007 and March 2009:

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

The Power of Gold Diversification / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

As a member of the British parliament in 1999, Sir Peter Tapsell, who passed away this past August, argued vigorously to keep the government from selling off over half of the country’s gold reserves. Previously, in the 1980s, Tapsell had managed a gold bullion fund, “valued at many hundreds of millions of dollars for the Sultan of Brunei, Sir Omar Saifuddin” – at the time one of the single largest private gold hoards on Earth. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. shale patch has skyrocketed by roughly 60 percent over the past two years. That leaves a rather large backlog that could add a wave of new supply, even if the pace of drilling begins to slow.

The backlog of DUCs has continued to swell, essentially uninterrupted, for more than two years. The total number of DUCs hit 8,723 in November 2018, up 287 from a month earlier. That figure is also up sharply from the 5,271 from the same month in 2016, a 60 percent increase. The EIA will release new monthly DUC data on January 22, which will detail figures for December.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks. Will Gold Benefit? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Thousands of political, business and cultural leaders are heading now towards Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum. On the eve of the world’s biggest annual gathering of the rich and powerful, the International Monetary Fund released its newest world economic outlook. What are the forecasts – and their implications for the gold market?

Global Expansion Weakens

Well, the title of the IMF’s update is telling: “A Weakening Global Expansion”. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent this year, 0.2 percentage point below last October’s projections and estimated performance in 2018. The revisions carry over from softer economic momentum in the second half of 2018, in particular in Germany, due to the problems of the automotive industry, and in Italy, due to the worries about sovereign and financial risks. Moreover, the experts acknowledge now the weakened financial sentiment and project deeper contraction in Turkey than previously anticipated.

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Commodities

Monday, January 21, 2019

Gold Stocks Remain in a Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market.

Gold stocks have been in a rally.

That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday.

Take a look at the charts of any gold stock index (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) and it’s clear they are in a downtrend.

Go back two to three years. You’ll see lower highs and lower lows. That’s a downtrend!

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Commodities

Saturday, January 19, 2019

David Morgan: Expect Stagflation and Silver Outperformance in 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me for a conversation on a range of topics, including his 2019 outlook for a number of different asset classes, most notably gold and silver. Don’t miss a fantastic preview of 2019 with the Silver Guru, David Morgan, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets are trading relatively quiet this week as the U.S. stock market continues to show surprising strength. It’s surprising at least to investors who expected markets to reflect growing political threats to the economy. 
As the partial government shutdown enters an unprecedented 28th day, economists are warning of a significant hit to first quarter GDP.

It’s not that furloughed government workers contribute much to economic productivity. It’s that since they are now starting to miss paychecks, they will have less to spend into the economy. GDP measures the nominal size of the economy, not how productive or efficient or free or fair it is.

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Commodities

Friday, January 18, 2019

Gold Surges on Stock Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold investment demand reversed sharply higher in recent months, fueling a strong gold rally.  The big stock-market selloff rekindled interest in prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold.  These mounting investment-capital inflows into gold are likely to persist and intensify.  Both weaker stock markets and higher gold prices will continue to drive more investment demand, growing gold’s upleg.

Early in Q4’18, gold reached a major inflection point.  It languished during the first three quarters of 2018, down 8.5% year-to-date by the end of Q3.  Investors wanted nothing to do with alternative investments with the stock markets powering to new record highs.  The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had rallied 9.0% in the first 3/4ths of last year.  That left gold deeply out of favor heading into Q4.

But a critical psychological switch was flipped as the SPX started sliding last quarter.  After long years with little material downside, stock traders had been lulled into overpowering complacency.  They were shocked awake as the SPX plunged 14.0% in Q4, its worst quarter since Q3’11.  They poured back into gold as stocks burned, driving it a strong 7.6% higher in Q4!  Rekindled investment demand was the driver.

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Commodities

Friday, January 18, 2019

Macroeconomic Outlook for 2019 and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Will 2019 be better than 2018 for the yellow metal? We invite you to read our today’s article, painting the macroeconomic outlook for 2018 and learn whether fundamental factors will become less or more friendly toward gold.

What will 2019 be like? We do not know the precise answer, but we notice a few important economic trends that will shape the new year.

1. Interest rates will continue to rise.
2. However, the Fed’s monetary tightening will slow down.
3. Just when the ECB will start normalizing its own monetary policy.
4. And when the stimulus of the US fiscal policy will start to dissipate.

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Commodities

Friday, January 18, 2019

Crude Oil Price Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52~55 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.

You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 17, 2019

No for Brexit Deal, Yes for May. And What for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

71 days. That’s all that separates us from the Brexit deadline. And the UK has still no clear path forward exiting the EU. Does gold have one?

Today's analysis features possible scenarios for the UK and for gold along with their likelihood. In the current political situation, it's a must-read.

Parliament Rejects May’s Brexit Deal

On Tuesday, the UK Parliament voted on Theresa May’s Brexit deal for leaving the EU. As expected, the MPs rejected her proposition. What was really surprising was the scale of defeat. The parliament voted 432-202 against May’s divorce deal, marking the worst defeat in modern British history.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Gold Holds Steady Over £1,000 – Increased Likelihood Of A Disorderly Brexit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: GoldCore

– Gold supported near $1,300/oz ahead of important British Brexit no-confidence vote
– Gold is consolidating in range between $1,280 and $1,300/oz (over £1,000/oz and €1,100/oz) – A break of resistance at $1,300 will likely see gold rise rapidly in all currencies
– Physical demand for gold coins and bars has picked up in the UK and Ireland, aided by Brexit uncertainty

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Gold Price – US$700 Or US$7000? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Does either of the above preclude the other?  In other words, if we expect gold to reach $7000.00 per ounce, and we are correct, does that mean that we can’t reasonably expect gold to go as low as $700.00 per ounce? Conversely, if we are predicting or expecting gold to decline from its current level and even breach $1000.00 per ounce on the downside, can $7000.00 per ounce, or anything even remotely close to that number, be a reasonable possibility? 

I do not think either one precludes the other.  In fact, I think it is entirely possible that we can see bothfigures.  And not necessarily spread over an inordinately long period of time, either.

Here is a possible scenario that would allow that to happen.

As the U.S dollar strengthens, the U.S. dollar price of gold declines.  This is clearly evident in the price action of gold since its high point of approximately $1900.00 per ounce in 2011. There is no way to know for certain how long relative dollar strength will last. And it is reasonable that if ongoing dollar strength takes gold below $1000, it might come to rest somewhere between $860 – 890.00 per ounce.  In January 1980, gold peaked at $850.00.  Revisiting that number is plausible, and well within the realm of realistic speculation.  And, yes, there are technical indicators that point to a gold price of as low as $700.00 per ounce.

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