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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The GDX and HUI Index are enjoying a blissful moment. With HUI behaving civilly, will the GDX cling to the unrealistic and try to leap to cloud “ten”?

With the GDX ETF punching a hole through its glass ceiling, the senior miners are now witnessing an environment that’s beyond their wildest dreams: sunshine, clear skies and a utopia that’s eluded them since the beginning of the New Year. However, while leaving paradise is often more difficult than arriving, the GDX ETF’s recent vacation is likely coming to an end. And with the senior miners about to resume the daily grind of real life, their optimism will likely fade with the tropical sun.

To explain, while the GDX ETF remains on cloud nine, the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) has already left the resort. With the latter’s long-term outlook still intact and its broad head & shoulders pattern remaining on schedule, I wrote previously that the right shoulder would likely form after the HUI Index reaches 300. And after closing at 301.72 on May 7, the BUGS (after all, HUI is called the Gold Bugs Index) are currently living up to expectations.

Please see below:

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Commodities

Thursday, May 06, 2021

Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally in Gold and Silver.

Understanding Cycle Phase Analysis & Trends in Metals

We interpret these cycle phases as unique trend segments involved in a broader cycle scope.  For example, over a longer-term rally, we may see many Bullish Advancing and Declining cycle phases take place – one after another.  Conversely, we may see many Bearish cycle phases take place in an extended downtrend.  Another type of cycle phase can also exist, the Reversal Cycle Phase – where price Advances in one direction and Declines in the opposite direction.  This type of Rotation Cycle Phase exists as the current completed Cycle on the Gold chart, below.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 06, 2021

USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The USD Index let out a roar heard across all markets. The king of the financial jungle arrived, along with the greenback’s largest single-day gain.

Just as the African landscape sometimes needs to show the strongest of its inhabitants, so does the less remote but equally ferocious financial environment. This time, the USDX seems to have won the fight – its fangs and claws turned out to be the sharpest, and so are the rallies. There is nothing left for gold and its acquaintances than to run through the forest… run.

Sometimes, even jackals need to find shelter to lick their wounds in patience, waiting for a better time to come back to fight. However, they will come back eventually – they always do.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As President Joe Biden pushed massive new spending initiatives in his address before Congress, investors shrugged off rising inflation risk. They pushed the S&P 500 up to a new record close on Thursday.

Gold, meanwhile, continues to be capped under the $1,800 level – at least for the time being.  Silver shows a slight weekly gain and trades a little over $26 per ounce.

As trading closes out for the month of April, precious metals bulls will be hoping for a more fruitful May. Although May is typically a quiet month in markets – not known for producing major crashes or price spikes – it can represent a seasonal turning point.

The old adage, “sell in May and go away” is premised on the stock market entering a seasonally weak period that typically lasts through October. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold started its decline without anyone’s assistance. And when the USDX takes off, that downhill tumble can only increase.

The USDX declines and the precious metals sit by idly, twiddling their thumbs. If they had the strength that’s being talked about, they should be soaring by now, or getting ready to. So, what’s their problem?

In the previous days, I discussed the signals coming from the precious metals market or for the precious metals market, as they kept on emerging, and we just received yet another round of indications. And yes, they also confirm the bearish outlook for the following weeks - or a few months.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 02, 2021

Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged. However, the lack of any action amid economic recovery is dovish – good news for gold.

On Wednesday (Apr. 28), the FOMC has published its newest statement on monetary policy . The statement wasn’t significantly altered. The main change is that the Fed has noticed the progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, and that, in consequence, the economic outlook has improved.

Previously, the US central bank said that indicators of economic activity and employment “have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak”, while now these indicators “have strengthened”, while “the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement”. So, the Fed acknowledged the fact that the economy has significantly recovered .
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Commodities

Saturday, May 01, 2021

Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Although we tend to focus more on the fundamentals here at Money Metals, the technical indicators can offer important insights. Such as right now.

Many traders, investors, and momentum players will closely examine the market trend to determine if and when to enter or exit the market.

A market with a strong technical foundation can launch to dizzying heights, while a market displaying weak technicals will have a tough time putting together any sustainable upside.

The gold market has been primarily range bound for the last two months. The $1700 and $1800 levels have acted as support and resistance. Medium term, though, gold has been in a downtrend since its $2,100 high last August.

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Commodities

Friday, April 30, 2021

Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

If you're still waiting to buy physical silver to start a stash, you're now playing financial Russian Roulette... with four rounds in the cylinder.

The chat rooms talk about buying silver and gold when they decline in price. "If silver goes down to 22, I'm all in!" "When these 'excessive' premiums drop a few dollars, I'm backing up the truck."

1) Emotion and Sentiment

Believe it or not, buying on a price drop goes against human nature.

It is a bit strange, because if you go to the store and find your favorite grass-fed beef on sale, you'll probably see how much you can stuff in the freezer. But back to the metals.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor discusses silver's rise and what may lie ahead.

Spot silver is trading around $26 per ounce…but you can't buy any at that price.

Instead, you'll have to pay almost 50% more.

That's right. If you want silver right now, you'll need to pay at least $35 per ounce.

If you prefer government mint coins, and you're willing to wait a month to get them, you'll have to pay upwards of $37 per 1 oz coin.

In the past year, premiums on physical silver have tripled from normal levels. Bullion dealers have been overwhelmed. Product shortages are now commonplace, with customers waiting 3 weeks or longer for shipping.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Indicators are pointing to gold and mining ETFs running out of breath. They don’t seem to have what it takes to the move to the finish line.

Despite gold, silver and mining stocks’ recent corrective upswings, the precious metals are running out of steam. After bursting off of the lows – while failing to recognize that it’s a marathon and not a sprint – the precious metals’ late-week breather signals that their stamina isn’t what it used to be.

Moreover, with false breakouts and sanguine sentiment causing an adrenaline rush that’s likely to fade, the precious metals’ transformation from stalwart to sloth could leave investors feeling increasingly dejected.

Case in point: with the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) already verifying the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern – which didn’t occur until later in 2008 – the miners’ outlook is actually more bearish now than it was then.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOOD NEWS… The rebound in gold prices from their recent low has awakened new fervor among those looking for the elusive moonshot. The ‘obvious’ signs of much higher inflation have emboldened those who are inclined to predict ever higher gold prices.

Contrastingly, the chart of GLD prices pictured below doesn’t look all that great…

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

The Top 3 CBD Oils with Anti-Inflammatory Properties for Stopping Pain / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Submissions

Inflammation does good and bad things for the body. On the one hand, it is the body’s natural defense mechanism against physical injuries, viral infections, and bacterial infections. On the other hand, it produces symptoms of swelling, redness, and pain.

Whenever a part of your body experiences trauma, white blood cells flow to that body part to protect it. White blood cells will kill the germs and bacteria in the affected area, but they could also cause inflammatory cells to attack friendly cells and hormones.

Inflammation causes pain because the swollen tissues put pressure on the nerve endings. Since the nerve endings are extra sensitive, the slightest amount of pressure will inflict a lot of pain on the person. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Gold Stocks Upleg Accelerates / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

This young gold-stock upleg is accelerating, with fast-rising prices enticing in more capital.  This sector has surged sharply to multiple major upside breakouts in recent weeks, which is starting to turn skeptics into believers.  Despite their strong upside momentum being chased, gold-stock prices remain far from overbought levels warning of impending selloffs.  This mounting upleg still has great room to power way higher.

Gold miners’ earnings are highly leveraged to prevailing gold prices, which drive this sector’s upleg and correction cycles.  In early March as the last extended gold-stock correction was bottoming, I wrote an essay on gold’s momentum selloff.  It concluded with “the gold-futures selling that ignited all this is finite, and is likely nearing exhaustion.  After that, gold should rally hard.”  We were positioned for a new upleg.

At that major bottoming, the trading books in our newsletters were full of fundamentally-superior gold miners’ stocks.  We added and recommended them leading into that at low prices, when they were deeply out of favor.  A few weeks later, I wrote another essay analyzing the latest quarterly results from the mid-tier gold miners.  They are in the sweet spot for stock-price appreciation potential when gold powers higher.

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Commodities

Monday, April 26, 2021

Gold's Perfect Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

US Treasuries are as much sought-out by investors in a crisis or pending crisis, but lately, Treasuries have become much less popular as a means of storing wealth.

The reason is simple: T-bills don’t offer a good return, and neither do other sovereign debt instruments. Although US Treasury yields have been climbing, owing partly to expectations of inflation, in recent weeks this trend has reversed, amid renewed concerns about the pandemic.

On Tuesday, the World Health Organization warned that global infections were reaching their highest levels, prompting many fund managers to rotate money into safe-haven bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 1.5% while the 30-year yield was reduced to 2.26%.   

Looking at the 10-year chart, we see the yield starting to climb in January, reaching as high as 1.74% on March 19 before falling from 1.69% at the start of April to the current 1.5 %.

Subtract 2.6% inflation and the real yield is negative 1.1%.

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Commodities

Monday, April 26, 2021

Biden’s ‘Green Reset’ Could Be Great for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As top officials around the world convene this week for a “climate summit,” President Joe Biden’s administration is planning the most radical expansion of government’s role in the economy since FDR’s New Deal.

The objective is nothing short of transitioning the entire U.S. and world economy to “clean energy” – as determined and directed by central planners.

Vice President Kamala Harris vowed, “We are not going to take it slow. We are not going to take it one step at a time. We are going to take one giant leap.”

First it was a Green New Deal, then it was a Great Reset. Now, apparently, it is a Giant Leap.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 24, 2021

Gold Price Reversal? Have No Fear! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 closed in the the red, vindicating my bearish sentiment going into Monday‘s session. And as I have tweeted during the day, the sellling doesn‘t appear to be over. Friday‘s:

(…) selling wave before the close looks to indicate hesitation ahead. Even though VIX is attacking the 16 level, and the put/call ratio ticked higher, the bulls are little disturbed thus far.

While VIX rose yesterday, it finished only a little above 17 – the tide in stocks hasn‘t turned to fear even temporarily in the least, and the current consolidation would still be one to be bought.

That‘s the result of ample liquidity in the system, which is denting the rotations. Yields moved higher yesterday, and defensives including tech or Down Jones Industrial Average rightly felt the pressure more than value stocks.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Several economic indicators have surprised us on the positive side. Nevertheless, the price of gold has rebounded.

Finally! The price of gold has been rising recently . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to above $1,770 on Friday (Mar. 16). This could be a promising start to the second quarter of 2021, which looks better than the first.
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Commodities

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Gold Price Next Key Level / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Gold rallied last week toward the top of a down-trending channel that has been in force since prices peaked last summer.

A breakout attempt in early January failed. The gold market subsequently slumped to a potential double-bottom low in March around $1,675/oz.

The $1,800 level now looms as a critical technical juncture.

The recent bounce could either fail around there… or gather the strength to finally break out of the multi-month corrective phase.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

A culminating point has been reached. With the USD Index being backed up by solid fundamentals, can gold hold the line?

Have you ever noticed how often the language of war is used in finance and economics articles? A given company is on the defensive or the offensive, a stock is pushing forward, something else is rallying, positions are being taken… who will fire first? It’s the case of continuous push and pull factors that makes military strategies and concepts relevant to the subject of money.

Now, when it comes to gold and the USD Index, it’s not the great battle of our time (in reference to today’s title), as Gandalf explained to Pippin in The Lord of the Rings, but it’s a battle, nonetheless. For the yellow metal, it could even be the deep breath before the plunge. We’ll soon find out.

With an epic struggle for supremacy set to unfold in the coming weeks, battle lines have officially been drawn: with the USD Index hovering near its 50-day moving average and gold recapturing its 50-day MA, negatively correlated assets have officially collided. And, as the rules of engagement specify that to the victor go the spoils, which one is likely to wave the white flag?

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

As the third most-consumed metal on the planet, behind iron ore and aluminum, copper is all around us. Found naturally in the Earth’s crust, copper was among the first metals used by early humans, dating back to the 8th century, BC. 

Three thousand years later homo sapiens figured out how to smelt copper from its ore, and to alloy it with tin to create bronze. Bronze was useful for tools and weapons, making it one of the most important inventions in the history of civilization.

The Copper Age

Nothing happens without copper; as it turns out, not even civilization itself. Beginning around 5,000 BC, the “Chalcolithic”  (from the Greek “khalkos” for copper and “lithos” for stone) or Copper Age was a transitionary period between the Neolithic (Stone Age) and the Bronze Age.

It was during this time that copper was introduced as a material that could be worked into metal, paving the way towards the use of bronze later on.

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