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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, August 30, 2019

Price Of Gold Is A Reflection of US Dollar; Not US Dollar Index / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Several articles by others recently have pointed out the apparent inconsistency of the US dollar’s action relative to the price of gold. For example, over the past year the US dollar Index has continued to strengthen, while gold has also risen in price.

That would seem to indicate that the US dollar’s value is not a primary factor in determining the price of gold. As we have said, though, the US dollar Index is not the same thing as the US dollar. The two are not interchangeable.

The US dollar Index (see Gold – US Dollar Vs. US Dollar Index) is a comparison of the US dollar versus a basket of other currencies (Euro, Yen, etc.) on an exchange rate basis . As such, it does not tell us anything about gold, positive or negative.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments.  Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members. 

One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY.  Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter

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Commodities

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Precious Metals Complex Super Bases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

The most important part of investing is knowing if you are in a bull or bear market. It’s always much easier to trade in the direction of the main trend. There are times when a market is reversing from bull to bear or vise versa that there is not a lot of confirmation the turn has completed which leaves one apprehensive about getting fully invested. The more clues you can get that the major trend has reversed the more confident you can become to put your hard earned capital to work.

Over the last year or two we have been slowly gathering clues on the PM complex that is reversing from the 2011 bear market to the new bull market which has just started to takeoff. There are still many investors that can’t believe the 2011 bear market is over and are gun shy to put capital to work in the PM complex. This is perfectly understandable because the job of a bear market is to crush any optimism one may have had with the PM complex.

Tonight I would like to show you some super bases that will leave no question in your mind that the PM complex has indeed reversed course from the 2011 bear market to a new and long term bull market that will have many years to run. I know you are tired of me saying, “big patterns lead to big moves.” but the charts to follow will show you exactly what I mean by that statement.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Silver Is Ready To Take Out Key Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is now ready to follow gold and successfully signal its bull market. In fact, it is important that silver do so, in order to provide another confirmation that gold’s recent rally is “real”.

The following technique (as presented previously) could provide a way to track silver until it provides that clear bull market signal.

Below, is a long-term silver chart:

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Gold and Silver About To Pull A Crazy Ivan / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.

The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible.  The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well.  The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold.  Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold.  This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Heightened Risk, Easy Money and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In recent months, the World Gold Council released a few interesting reports. What can we learn from the publications? We’ll then supplement it with the view of the Fed policies. Will gold like the message?

Gold Demand Trends Q2 2019

On August 1, the WGC published a new edition of its quarterly report on gold demand. According to the organization, the supply of gold grew 6 percent (recycling jumped 9 percent, while mine production increased 2 percent), while the demand for gold rose 8 percent year-over year to 1,123 tons in the second quarter of 2019.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Niche Gold Stocks Are the Best Way to Invest in Gold Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Robert_Ross

For your sake, I hope you already have some gold in your portfolio.

Gold is on an amazing run. It’s up over 21% since last August.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up a mere 0.7%, as you can see in the chart below.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Has the Basing Setup In Natural Gas Completed? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Back in June 2019, we posted a research article suggesting that Natural Gas was setting up an extended basing pattern below $2.35 preparing for a seasonal rally that typically initiates in late August or early September.  We believe the basing pattern has nearly completed and now is the time to begin positioning for the upside price rally that we believe will hit in Natural Gas as early a September 5th or so.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Gold and Silver ADL Predictions Getting Ready For A Big Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This weekend we thought we would share some really important data and charts with all of you precious metals bugs/traders (like us).  You probably remember our October 5th, 2018 call in Gold that has set off an incredible series of events for all of us.  We made a prediction that day that Gold would rotate higher from the $1200 level targeting the $1300 level, then stall and move lower to set up a “momentum base” near April 21~24 before accelerating much higher after June/July 2019.  Our original research chart is shown below. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

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Commodities

Monday, August 26, 2019

Gold In Pre-Recession World / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The yield curve has inverted. It suggests that we are about one year before the recession. How should the yellow metal behave in such a period? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out how gold is likely to behave in the pre-recession world.
The yield curve has inverted. If its strong predictive power of the recession remains intact – in the previous part of this report, we presented strong arguments that this is really the case (or, that there are no strong evidence for a weakened predictive power) – it means that we should expect an economic slump around May 2020. 

But what about gold? How should the yellow metal behave in a pre-recession world? To answer this trillion question, we analyzed the historical yield curve inversions and examined their impact on gold prices. We put the results in the table below.

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Commodities

Monday, August 26, 2019

We’re Now Forecasting Sharply Higher Gold & Silver Prices Sooner… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear some very interesting comments from a first-time guest, Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group. Jeff talks about who’s been buying gold, and who hasn’t been – at least not compared to levels of a few years ago, tells us why they’ve moved up their price forecasts for gold and silver a couple of years, and also answers the question about whether or not he believes there is widespread manipulation in the precious metals markets. You’ll want to be sure to stick around for my conversation with Jeff Christian, coming up after this week’s market update.

As investors glean takeaways from the Jackson Hole symposium this week , gold and silver markets are bouncing off of some near-term technical support levels.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 25, 2019

Gold's Next Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Donald_W_Dony

Gold has drawn a lot of attention lately with its recent strong upward swing. But where it goes from here is what must subscribers are asking.

Let's look at the driving factors.

About 78% of all the gold mined is used for jewelry and industrial applications. The remaining 22% is used in financial applications.

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Commodities

Friday, August 23, 2019

U.S. To “Drown The World” In Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The U.S. could “drown the world in oil” over the next decade, which, according to Global Witness, would “spell disaster” for the world’s attempts to address climate change.

The U.S. is set to account for 61 percent of all new oil and gas production over the next decade. A recent report from this organization says that to avoid the worst effects of climate change, “we can’t afford to drill up any oil and gas from new fields anywhere in the world.” This, of course, would quickly cause a global deficit, as the world continues to consume around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil.

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Commodities

Friday, August 23, 2019

What Will Jackson Hole Bring to Us and Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The 2019 Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole has begun! On Friday, we’ll hear Jerome Powell discuss the latest monetary policy shifts. How will it affect the gold market?

Jackson Hole 2019 Has Begun

This week is rather light in terms of incoming economic data, with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting being the only exception. Now, investors await the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium scheduled August 22-24 in Wyoming. The conference is one of the most famous and important gatherings of central bankers, policy experts, academics, and leading financial market players, and it is closely followed by investors. It is very often a major market-moving event, as central banks hint at new policy moves. The best example may be the 2010 symposium when Ben Bernanke announced the second round of quantitative easing, which supported the gold prices. On the contrary, in 2016, Janet Yellen delivered a hawkish speech which pushed the yellow metal downward.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Gold Price Trend Validation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Denali_Guide

So who is on First, or Are we there yet ?

         Either addresses the current CUT 2 CHASE question.

         Blind faith can be good or bad, but tempered with some evidence, might be a good thing.    Lets look  at several categories of evidence concerning the position and trend of Gold and Gold Stocks.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Gold and the Cracks in the U.S., Japan and Germany’s Economic Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Talk of a synchronized world - all three economic superpowers are in a recession! The U.S. suffers from industrial recession, Japan from export recession, while Germany may fall into a broad economic recession. Will the gold market warm up to these news?

Recent U.S. Data Shows Industrial Recession

The recent inversion of the yield curve has sparked recessionary fears. Some of the newest pieces of the U.S. economic data confirm the gloomy outlook. For example, the industrial production fell 0.2 percent in July, the second drop in the past four months, according to the Federal Reserve, as one can see in the chart below. Although the scale of slump might be overstated due to the Hurricane Barry hitting oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, the industrial sector remains in a technical recession.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

The Gold Rush of 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rodney_Johnson

One side of my family has held a reunion every few years for more than four decades. It’s a big, raucous event filled with lots of food, many half-true stories about the past, and copious amounts of alcohol.

In other words, it’s a not-to-be-missed event.

Hosting responsibilities transferred from one sibling at the oldest generation to the next, and then moved down a level. My relatives are spread across the nation. So, we’ve held the reunion in Minnesota, Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, California, Texas, and Florida. Last week we gathered in Colorado, descending on Mt. Princeton Hot Springs Resort just outside of Salida.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Case for Gold Keeps Getting Stronger As Negative Interest Rates Spread / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The world has truly entered uncharted waters with negative interest rates spreading so far and wide. 

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, recently noted that a whopping 25% of all bonds sold globally now carry a negative yield. “Investors” are even buying some “junk” rated bonds which will repay the bearer less than purchase price upon maturity. 

Now European banks, who have been absorbing the European Central Bank’s 0.4% charge to hold deposits, are throwing in the towel and getting ready to pass those charges on to clients. 

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Commodities

Monday, August 19, 2019

Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This time is different. This is what the experts say. The inversion of the yield curve did a great job in predicting recessions in the past, but the current inversion is not like the previous. The predictive power of the yield curve has weakened, so it does not signal the recession. This is what the pundits claim. We invite you to read our today’s article and find out whether the experts are right and what does it mean for the gold market.

This time is different. This is what the experts say. The inversion of the yield curve did a great job in predicting recessions in the past, but the current inversion is not like the previous. The predictive power of the yield curve has weakened, so it does not signal the recession. This is what the pundits claim. Are they right?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, August 19, 2019

Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we wrote that near-term risk in precious metals (Gold and GDX especially) was rising and a correction could begin soon. 

As Gold nearly reached major resistance at $1550/oz, the miners already began to correct. That negative divergence is an ominous signal for the sector in the short term.

However, the good news is, at least at present, Gold remains very strong in real and intermarket terms.

The first example of that is Gold’s strength against foreign currencies (Gold/FC). Gold/FC made a new all time high a few weeks ago and is now 4% above the previous all time high.

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