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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Natural Gas Reloads For Another Price Rally / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As a technical trader, one has to really learn to appreciate when a trade “reloads” for another move higher.  Much like the Gold base/bottom in April 2019 below $1300 that we called back in October 2018.  When a trend confirms and we can see the potential for upside profits, but price performs a “deep pullback” withing that initial trend setup – it is almost like we're dreaming.

After the downside rotation in Gold setup in April 2019, the next move higher pushed Gold prices up to $1550 from levels near $1275 – what a great move that was.  Now, imagine Natural Gas may give us another chance to get long below $2.30 with an upside target near $3.00 before mid-November?  Incredible – right?

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Commodities

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Craig Hemke: Ignore the Elliott Wave “Buffoons” Calling for a Gold Crash / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets that you will find anywhere.

Craig, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Craig Hemke: Mike, my friend, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for the invite.

Mike Gleason: Absolutely. Love to get you back on and thanks for the time. Well, the recent smash in the metals prices was reminiscent to what we saw in the markets in 2016, at least in silver. Prices ran higher up to about $20 an ounce and then got hammered back down where they continued trading in a range between about $14 and $17 until this year's breakout. Do you think we'll see the metals once again be put back into their box here or do you think it will be different this time around? I guess that's the million-dollar question for silver bugs, what do you think?

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Commodities

Saturday, October 05, 2019

The True Causes Behind the Yield Curve Inversion and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

By now, everyone and their brother has heard about the yield curve inversion. How come it has inverted and how much should we read into it? Is it really such a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession? Let’s dig into the true causes behind the inversion and find out what its meaning for the gold market.

Is the yield curve inverted? Well, it depends. Although the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has normalized somewhat in September, it remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, after a short dip below zero in August, the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasuries spent time in positive territory, as the chart below shows.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Gold Stocks Correction Underway / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are correcting.  They’ve been sliding and drifting lower on balance since their powerful recent upleg peaked a month ago.  Corrections are normal and healthy in ongoing bull markets, rebalancing sentiment to pave the way for the next upleg.  They also offer the best buy-low opportunities seen inside secular uptrends.  Deploying capital in gold stocks after corrections multiplies wealth-building potential.

While most people dread corrections, battle-hardened speculators and investors embrace them.  They make prices oscillate around their bull-market uptrends, greatly expanding their overall travel.  The more price movement, the more potential upside to ride.  Today’s gold-stock bull proves this.  Consider it in terms of the most-popular gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.

This gold-stock bull was born in mid-January 2016, from the depths of despair after a secular gold bear.  Over the next 6.4 months, GDX skyrocketed 151.2% higher in an epic maiden upleg!  That initial early-August-2016 peak has yet to be eclipsed, but GDX came within 1.2% as this latest upleg peaked in early-September 2019.  So the maximum potential gains by buying and holding this entire bull are still 151.2%.

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Commodities

Friday, October 04, 2019

ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening.  It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members.  Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out  accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below).  At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019.  Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019.  Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

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Commodities

Friday, October 04, 2019

Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

American manufacturers are scoring ever deeper recessionary readings. We haven’t seen this bad an ISM Manufacturing reading in quite a while. Can it take the broader economy with it? And what about gold – when exactly will it get its shine?

ISM Manufacturing Index Drops To Disturbingly Low Level

The September ISM Manufacturing Index registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. It’s not only below 50 percent, which indicates a contraction, but it’s actually the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession formally ended, as the chart below shows.

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Commodities

Friday, October 04, 2019

Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the often favorable fourth quarter trading season with the potential to reinvigorate their major uptrends.
Despite posting impressive gains in the third quarter, gold and (especially) silver finished it on a downbeat note.

On Monday, sellers smashed silver spot prices down 3.6% to test the $17.00/oz. level.

The disappointing finish to the month and the quarter does raise the possibility that momentum selling could continue to drag prices lower in the near term. However, quarter-end profit taking and portfolio shuffling by institutional futures traders could also work in favor of an immediate price bounce.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nick_Barisheff

Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to understate true inflation.

Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow Statistics and the Chapwood Index.  John Williams, a renowned economist, provides excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI.  Exhibit A provides a visual interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.

But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 03, 2019

Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.

In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Last Train Out for Gold, Silver and Platinum Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The people who are prepared are going to reap rewards such as they have never dreamed. We're going to have the biggest transfer of wealth in history – from the fools – to those who are prepared. – Bob Moriarty

The run up of the last few months to $1,565 gold and $19 silver has stalled out into a relatively high-level correction, giving back less than might be expected after such a spirited rise.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Mike_McAra

What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.

  • Ecclesiastes 1:9

History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

...

 


Commodities

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Trump: Transform The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Into An Oil Bank / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Following the attacks on key crude oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the authorization of the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the market well supplied. This move changes nothing in the way the SPR is governed. The market, not the President, should determine the release of the massive SPR.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Saudi Oil Shock: Who Wins, Who Loses / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Steve_H_Hanke

On September 14th, drones targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field. The strikes reportedly knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's total output. That amounts to a whopping 6-7% of the global daily oil supply. Not surprisingly, before the dust had settled, the press sounded an alarm and spread fear. Then, President Trump jumped in, claiming the attack “won't affect us and ultimately I don't think it will affect the world either.” Well, let’s take a look at the data.

Brent crude prices surged by 15%, from $60/bbl on September 13th to $69/bbl on the 16th, the first trading day after last weekend’s drone attacks. Brent crude is now trading at $65/bbl. While a significant increase, the response to this incident has kept oil in what Arend Kapteyn of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) deems to be in a safe zone ($50-$75/bbl). When prices are in this sweet spot, the “gains” and “losses” from oil price changes are roughly balanced, so the global economy can hum along without missing a beat.

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Commodities

Friday, September 27, 2019

Silver/Gold Ratio is a Guide as Inflation Signals Fade Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…

The Continuum is Still in the Deflation Camp (9.24.19)

Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon (9.11.19)

The first and more recent post noted that the 30yr yield needs to climb above 2.2% to even think of hinting toward a temporary inflation trade. The chart from that post shows that while the Continuum is of a long, deflationary structure the periodic pings upward to the (monthly EMA 100) limiter often represent times of cyclical inflationary bursts. This morning the 30 year yield stands at 2.15%.

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Commodities

Friday, September 27, 2019

More smelters, scrap metal ban driving Chinese copper imports / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

Despite evidence of a slowing economy, shipments of raw materials are gliding across Chinese docks at a torrid pace, especially metals, which form the backbone of China’s industrial supply chain.

In fact a recent report shows that, while Chinese imports are down 5% compared to last year, and the trade war is hitting China’s manufacturing sector, imports of raw materials and ores “continue their seemingly perpetual upward trend.” 

A blistering trade 

MINING.com quotes BMO Global Commodities Research, the report’s author, saying that “In our opinion, while the trade war has caused many problems for China, it has not shaken the overall commodity business model of importing raw materials, having enough process capacity and ideally exporting a small amount of finished product as an inflation hedge.”

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Commodities

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Will Gold Benefit from Trump Impeachment Proceedings? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, Nancy Pelosi announced that the House would launch a formal impeachment inquiry. Is it a well-grounded argument, publicity stunt or reflection of the growing polarization inside the Democratic party? Storm in a tea cup or not, should Trump be worried? And gold?

What’s This All About?

On Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, announced that “the House of Representatives is moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry.” That’s a big shift among Democrats, who control the House. They were talking about the Trump impeachment for months and for a variety of reasons, but never launched the process. What changed their minds?

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Gold not in Real Bull Market Yet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Is Gold now back in a bull market? Most gold bugs think so and are quick to proclaim that.

But, could Gold remain in a secular bear market? It hasn’t made a new all time high in 8 years and the perma-bull, financial asset loving crowd certainly believes so.

This is semantics because what really matters is making money and nothing else.

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