Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Gold and the Last Contango in Washington? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
Here is an update on the backwardation in gold that started on December 2. It continued and worsened on December 3, 4, and 5. So far this is the most serious signal of the economic crisis: the world is rushing headlong into a Great Depression, possibly worse than that of the 1930's. Please remember the following analogy: the serial devaluation of currencies starting with that of the British pound in 1931 meant a drastic drop in the velocity of gold circulation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Gold Backwardation Crisis: Seperating Facts from Fiction / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Rob_Kirby
An important piece of academic research was published last week [ Dec. 5, 2008 ] by Professor Antal Fekete, titled, Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!! In this article, Professor Fekete reasoned that Dec. 2, 2008 was a landmark date in the saga of the collapsing international monetary system;
“on December 2 nd , at the Comex in New York , December gold futures (last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot, while February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009 ) were quoted at 0.14% discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.) The condition got worse on December 3 rd , when the corresponding figures were 2% and 0.29%. This means that the gold basis has turned negative, and the condition of backwardation persisted for at least 48 hours.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
End of U.S. Dollars False Rally to Drive Gold Sharply Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Perhaps the greatest gift we all could receive in the coming season of year end holidays would be the final demise of the hedge fund industry. While that might not happen, we might have to settle for the end of the U.S. dollar's false rally. Before going into that though, one question. If these funds are hedged, how come they have been losing so much money? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Measuring The Likely Strength Of This Gold Stocks Impulse Wave / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Captain_Hook
As promised Friday, here we are with a look at the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) in an effort to gauge the likely strength of the anticipated impulse into the first quarter of next year. And as you will see below this move could get quite impulsive if Bollinger Band (BB) widths begin to expand during the move. Certainly such thinking would not be a stretch considering Friday's 45 point move higher in the HUI, however we are not making any assumptions in this regard as option expiries often cause violet moves if prices are either too far above or below equilibrium thresholds. So you see the true test of how strong the present impulse will be is likely better judged by what happens this week, along with other considerations which will be dealt with below. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Crude Oil Forecast 2009- Time to Buy? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
No one could have imagined a little over 4 months ago with crude oil trading at $147, that crude oil would have crashed by 70% and be threatening to break below $40 so soon. Therefore this analysis seeks to to evaluate the prospects for crude oils future trend over the next 12months in determining whether crude oil today is a good buy or not.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Gold Jumps on Obama Infrastructure Rebuilding Plan / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD eased back from a sharp 2.8% gain for Dollar investors early in London on Monday, trading flat against Sterling and Euros after US president-elect Obama promised to "jump start" the economy with huge government spending and debt.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Backwardization Of Gold And The Upwardization Of Gold And Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Systemic crises are caused by the inability of systems to respond to stress. When systems can no longer adequately respond, systemic collapse ensues. We are currently witness to the end of a system of paper money based on credit and debt, a system now in the final stages of collapse. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Gold Stocks a Buy! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Brian_Bloom
As these words are being written, there are two extraordinarily worrying facts in the world's financial markets:
• There has been a continuing “flight to safety” of capital – as evidenced by a collapse in the 30 year and 10 year yields shown in the charts below (courtesy decisionpoint.com and stockcharts.com respectively)
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Gold Bullish Breakout Takes a Bearish Knock / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Okay. So maybe we're not yet in a roaring new bull market. The next level to watch would be the $700 level, if it gets that low.
GOLD LONG TERM - It's instructive to every once in a while take a look at a long term chart to see where we came from and maybe get a better idea as to where we might be going. I have two long term charts (other than P&F) that I usually show. This is my normal chart, one that I use in my weekly analysis. The other one differs in that it is more of a very long term chart and includes longer term indicators and moving averages.
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Saturday, December 06, 2008
David Morgan Silver Investing Questions and Answers / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Morgan
The well-traveled and prolific David Morgan has contributed to Northwest Territorial Mint Precious Metals Monthly in the past and has achieved recognition for his insights into the silver market and investing in general. As a follower of the silver market for more than 30 years, he is the author of Get the Skinny on Silver Investing , and his Web site, www.silver-investor.com , is a leading source for serious investors.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Taking Physical Delivery of Silver and Gold from COMEX / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Submissions
A Memorable Delivery Experience - For those who remember, I wrote a letter asking about taking delivery from the COMEX. Well I would like to tell you about a very educational experience. Recently, we took a delivery from the COMEX. The process was a bit cumbersome but very enlightening. First, I would like to say that the process of dealing with the custodians was very professional. However, let me begin my story of amazement.
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Saturday, December 06, 2008
Gold Red Alert- Gold Price Backwardation first time in History! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Professor_Emeritus
December 2, 2008, was a landmark in the saga of the collapsing international monetary system, yet it did not deserve to be reported in the press: gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history. The facts are as follows: on December 2nd, at the Comex in New York, December gold futures (last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot, while February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009) were quoted at 0.14% discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.) The condition got worse on December 3rd, when the corresponding figures were 2% and 0.29%. This means that the gold basis has turned negative, and the condition of backwardation persisted for at least 48 hours. I am writing this in the wee hours of December 4th, when trading of gold futures has not yet started in New York. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Central Banks Gold Reserve Actions Key to Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
From 1980 right through to 1999, the gold market had the possibility of enormous central bank gold sales hanging over the gold market. Central banks did nothing to remove this impression but led the market to believe that it was likely. Their purpose was to ensure gold did not challenge the paper money markets. In 1971, President Nixon had cut the link between gold and money but removed the ability of U.S. $ holders to change their dollars into gold. This left the $ and all other currencies without any backing except the promise from central banks to change paper dollars into paper dollars. This would not have worked nearly so well had the U.S. not had the power to ensure that the oil market was bound to use only U.S. dollars as payment for oil.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
Real Interest Rates and the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
It's been a tough year for gold investors. Instead of soaring during the great fear and uncertainty of the global financial panic as most gold investors expected, gold got caught up in the selling. Thus it is down 7.3% year-to-date. This is far-better performance than virtually everything else, especially the S&P 500's 40.7% YTD loss. Nevertheless, the lack of a flight to gold in such dire conditions remains disappointing. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
Gold and the End of an Era in the Global Capitalist Economy / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...'What is economics?' an economics professor asks. 'Scarcity' comes the school-children's answer..."
SO WE'RE LIVING through the end of something. Something important and ugly. Everyone seems agreed on that.
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Friday, December 05, 2008
Crude Oil Closing in on $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Oil is closing in on $40.00 and perhaps on the way to $37.50 amidst an increasingly acute oversold condition. The trendline created by connecting the two major rally peaks between September 2000 ($37.89) and February 2003 ($39.99) cuts across the price axis at 46.00-43.50.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
Gold Slumps on Half a Million U.S. Job Losses / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD gave back a tepid rally early in London on Friday before slumping to fresh two-week lows at $750 an ounce on news of a huge jump in US unemployment.More than half-a-million Americans lost their jobs last month, reported the Bureau of Labor Studies. Wall Street analysts had been expecting 325,000 job losses.
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Thursday, December 04, 2008
Euro Rockets and U.S. Dollar Pops Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The upside reversal in EURUSD today has popped the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) to an intraday high at 77.63, which if nothing else has put some distance between the price structure and key near-term support at the December low of 75.10/05. Prices have pulled back to 75.88 even though EURUSD has held its gains, which means that gold prices remain heavily influenced by the continual selling pressure across the commodity complex in general -- and in oil, in particular. Oil prices have plunged to new lows at $44.52, the lowest level since February 2005 and at the top of a support band that stretches across major highs going back to September 2000.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Gold Unmoved by Historic Interest Rate Cuts in Europe / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD Gold Prices held in a tight $10 range in Asia and London on Thursday, unmoved by historic interest-rate cuts across Europe that buoyed French and German equities as returns-to-cash sank.The European Central Bank (ECB) lopped 75-basis points off the cost of borrowing Euros, but held above the previous 2003 low of 2.0%, with its largest ever one-day reduction.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Gold Market "Illiquid" as Zero Interest Rates Loom / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD for physical delivery slipped back against the Dollar, Euro and Yen early Wednesday in London, but recovered two-thirds of this week's 3.5% drop for UK investors as the Pound tumbled again on the foreign exchanges.On the stock market, Wall Street's strong overnight finish faded in Asia and left European bourses almost 1.5% lower by lunchtime.
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