Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Waiting for Double Bottom Support in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Several weeks ago we wrote about the downside risk in the gold stocks.
After the various gold stock indices formed distribution-type tops, the subsequent selling has been swift. Miners have plunged through moving averages and short-term breadth indicators quickly reached oversold extremes.
While the gold stocks are oversold, it could be a little while before we can expect a sustained rebound.
We plot GDX below along with the percentage of HUI stocks that closed above the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. (The HUI is essentially GDX sans royalty companies).
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Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Silver Sets Up A Long-Term Wave B Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Precious Metals traders have been hanging on every turn in the markets over the past 2+ years. The upside price move in early 2016 setup a very strong expectation that further upside price moves were about to result in an upside price explosion in metals. Remember, 2016 was a very big US Presidential election year. 2020, being the next big US Presidential election year, is only about 7 months away and the rancor has already started in the news cycles.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has set up an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months. Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22. We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.
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Monday, May 06, 2019
Gold Stocks Big Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I was going through some old long term charts I haven’t posted in many years to see if there was anything of interest to post tonight. With long term charts things don’t change very fast and the big picture can stay viable for years. I have literally hundreds of charts for the different PM stock indexes that I’ve built through the years that are tucked away in different chart lists that I don’t check very often. It’s always interesting to go through some of those old chart lists, especially with the longer term charts, to see what I was thinking years ago and how relative that big picture looks today.
This first chart is a 12 year weekly chart for the XAU which begins with the 2007 small H&S top that led to the crash in 2008. When I first began to post that potential H&S top nobody and I mean nobody wanted to hear about it. The PM complex had been in a raging bull market up to that time so how could there be a H&S top reversal pattern forming. That 2007 H&S top produced the biggest and most vertical decline in the history of the XAU which caught most PM investors off guard. Luckily for those investors that held on during that massive decline, which would have been near impossible, were treated to a reverse symmetry rally back up over the same area on the way down. That 2008 crash low rally produced marginally new highs which turned out to be a massive H&S top which ended the bull market.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we have an eye-opening interview with Bill Holter of JS Mineset. Bill weighs in host of topics including our incredibly broken and phony markets, the truth behind why governments hate gold so much, and the real reasons why China and Russia are eagerly amassing huge gold positions.
Bill also highlights some tell-tale events he believes could cause a massive revaluation of gold and silver… and an implosion of the debt-based markets we have today. Don’t miss our explosive interview with Bill Holter, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets got hit this week as the Federal Reserve threw cold water on the idea of interest rate cuts.
Fed policy makers met on Wednesday and left their benchmark rate unchanged as expected. The Fed’s statement noted that price inflation excluding food and energy has declined over the past 12 months and is officially running below 2%. This, even as oil and gasoline prices have trended sharply higher this year.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Looking At Crude Oil Price Corrective Upswing, Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
It looks like crude oil is set for a sizable weekly decline. After yesterday’s plunge, the market looks to have stabilized today. But is it really so? In today’s analysis, we’re bringing you the details. We objectively reveal what to expect next. Either the bulls or the bears won’t like it. Who do you think it’ll be?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
US $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan Will Require Mega Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
The White House and Congress finally agreed to put their significant differences aside and work together on something constructive, no pun intended.
On Wednesday it was announced that President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders plan to spend $2 trillion on US roads, bridges, power grids, water and broadband infrastructure - bricks and mortar priorities that are sorely underfunded in both the United States and Canada.
For more on this, read our The global infrastructure deficit: the road not yet taken
“We just had a very productive meeting with the president of the United States,” House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Polosi said during a press scrum, adding: “We did come to one agreement: That the agreement would be big and bold.”
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Will Yuan Replace US Dollar and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.
We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.
The dollar’s supremacy started around 1955 when reserves held in greenback exceeded those held in pound sterling. Since then, the US dollar is a king. To be clear, we do not maintain that greenback is a wonderful currency without problems and better than gold. No, it simply has no competitors among other fiat currencies. It is a king of beggars.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Carpe Diem / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews recent movements in precious metals and discusses how he is playing the market. Last week I sent out my uber-bullish call on the metals and miners at the conclusion of a period fraught with doom and despair for all things gold and silver. The criminality of the interventionists was in full bloom as they bombed gold down through that critical "Line in the Sand" at $1282 forcing the Speculative Longs (hedge funds, quant funds, technical funds) to immediately reverse and regurgitate longs and initiate big new short positions as the bullion bank behemoths took profits. First, let's revisit that missive.
From Saturday the 20th: "All right, now that I have concluded my rant on the madness being inflicted upon us, I have a couple of observations to make about gold. Earlier last week, I was looking at GLD wondering whether my GLD May $124 puts might hit $5.00 before the end of the week and then it occurred to me that my "Line in the Sand" at the prior lows of $1,282 and the subsequent "breakDOWN" was no different in its blatancy than the "breakOUT" in Barrick. So, I pulled up the GLD chart and lo and behold, while the sub-30 level for RSI sported two super buying opportunities in 2018, it has not been much under 35 in all of 2019 thus far. Now, notwithstanding that the stock markets are getting somewhat stretched, I have to respect two things: 1) the dotted red line in the RSI window in the chart below and 2) that only in the perverse world of precious metals are technical "breakdowns" to be BOUGHT while technical "breakouts to be SOLD. Therefore, I have covered all my shorts in both gold and the mining shares and initiated 50% long positions in JNUG, NUGT and the GLD June $120 calls. The chart below pretty much says all that is needed; we are at an inflection point that represented tradeable bottoms in mid-November and early March."
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Will Platinum Be the Precious Metal Leader? / Commodities / Platinum
By: The_Gold_Report
Platinum, after making what appears to be a wash-out low in August 2018, now looks poised to be a precious metal leader, writes fund manager John Newell at Fieldhouse Capital Management.
What is Platinum:
Platinum is a precious transition metal that has the chemical symbol Pt and an atomic number of 78 on the periodic table. Platinum is grayish white in color and is often mistaken for silver. Platinum is derived from the Spanish word, platina, which translates to "small silver." Once considered a nuisance mineral, it was often discarded by early miners. Platinum is thirty times rarer than gold, with annual production of 6 million ounces per year, compared to ~100 million p/a ounces of gold, and 850 million ounces p/a of silver.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Why US Dollar Strength is Long Term Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
As we know, Gold and the US Dollar have an inverse relationship. Gold is priced in US Dollars and the drivers of each are similar (from an inverse point of view). Over long-term periods both trend in the same direction but the magnitude of the moves can vary and be quite different.
The standard inverse relationship has not been a perfect one in recent months or years.
In the chart below we plot Gold, gold stocks and the US Dollar.
We highlight (with vertical lines) the points at which Gold tested the wall of resistance. As you can see, the relationship with the dollar hasn’t been uniform.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Silver Market Alert: Powerful Bullish Setup Takes Shape / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The silver market appears to be setting up for a big move.
After spending this spring stair-stepping lower in a narrowing range, silver prices have formed a falling wedge pattern. That pattern usually resolves in a powerful directional breakout. The good news for bulls is that falling wedges usually break out to the upside.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Gold Price May Give Us One More Chance With New Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our proprietary price cycle tool is showing us that the Daily Gold cycles may dive a bit lower, possibly into the $1250 to $1265 level, over the next 3~7+ days before reaching an ultimate low. We’ve been covering the precious metals markets like hawks because of our proprietary price modeling tools that suggested the April 21~24 dates as an ultimate low/momentum base pattern. This new cycle formation highlights the potential that a deeper price low in Gold may set up over the next 5 to 7 days and it may become an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders.
Taking a look at this cycle chart, we can see the deep price low that may target the $1270 levels or levels just below the $1270 price area. It appears that this new price low may form somewhere near the end of this week, May 3rd, or early next week, May 6th or 7th. Please pay attention to this potential price move as this may be the last low price reversal before a very strong upside price move.
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Sunday, April 28, 2019
Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
After an interesting week and to allow more focus on charting the miners this weekend, we again offload much of the NFTRH Precious Metals segment’s content to the public site. The following is (hopefully) going to be long on charts and relatively short on words (sighs of relief palpable…).
HUI/Gold Ratio is intact to its higher lows from September. This was a logical bounce point for gold stocks. HGR needs to promptly take back the SMA 200, however.
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Saturday, April 27, 2019
Near-Record Gold Shorting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has failed to gain traction over the past couple months, normally a seasonally-strong time. That has really weighed on sentiment, leaving traders increasingly bearish. Gold investment demand has flagged dramatically with lofty stock markets spewing great euphoria. That’s given gold-futures speculators the run of the market, where they have sold aggressively including extreme shorting. But that’s actually very bullish.
Gold price action is driven by the collective trading of both investors and speculators. The former control vast amounts of capital, which dominates gold prices when it is migrating in or out. But investors’ interest in gold withers when stock markets are super-high. When stocks seemingly do nothing but rally, there’s no perceived need to prudently diversify stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold. It falls out of favor.
Extreme stock-market euphoria is gold’s primary problem now, acting like kryptonite for gold investment. This week the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index clawed back to a new all-time record high. That extended its monster rebound rally since late December’s near-bear lows to 24.8%! The farther the stock markets advance, the more gold is forgotten. Investors have relentlessly pulled capital back out of gold.
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Friday, April 26, 2019
Will Fed’s New Balance Sheet Policy be a Reason to Buy Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As always, most analysts focus not on what they really should. After March FOMC meeting, everyone was talking about the more dovish dot-plot. But the Fed also announced that it will end the unwinding of its balance sheet in September. As these changes are revolutionary and may entail potentially huge consequences for the precious markets, we invite you to read our today’s article about the new Fed’s balance sheet policy and find out whether it will be positive for the gold prices.
Most analysts focus on the recent revision of the Fed’s dot-plot. This is of course very important – so we have analyzed them in the previous part of the April edition of the Market Overview – but we should not forget about very substantial changes in the US central bank’s balance sheet policy. We have described these modifications in the March 21 edition of the Gold News Monitor, but let’s now dig into the new Fed’s normalization plan.
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Friday, April 26, 2019
Precious Metals Are All At Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am not sure how much more I can add to what has been said over the last two weeks in the metals complex.
At this point in time, it is quite clear that the metals are testing support. As specifically noted about silver, the 14.60 support region is what I want to see holding as support here. While I can accept a spike and reversal of that level, a sustained break of that level opens the door to a 13 handle for a lower low bottoming in that chart.
As far as GLD is, the 119 region is the similar support region I want to see hold for a wave iv. And, in GDX, you can see we are now approaching the bottom of our support box as well.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Will Stephen Moore Make Gold Great Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last month, Trump said that he considered Herman Cain and Stephen Moore as his picks to the Federal Reserve Board. As the former had withdrawn his name from consideration, the focus shifted to the latter. Who is Mr. Moore exactly and what would his nomination imply for the gold market?
Who Are You, Mr. Moore?
There are still two vacancies at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. It’s possible that Stephen Moore will fill one gap, which has provoked great controversy. President Trump has not officially nominated him yet, but the White House supports Moore for a seat on the Board, as Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, has recently reaffirmed.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Silver Sentiment: Is It (Your) Friend or Foe? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006. The next two years saw the last part of a 400% up-move for those who "kept the faith," before silver dropped below $9 during the 2008 global financial meltdown.
Then it was up, up and away, as silver rocketed to nearly $50 by April 2011. By then, "everyone knew" it was going to $100.
A blogger announced he had sold his house to buy silver and advised others to do the same.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Spring Has Arrived. Will Gold also Bloom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Recent positive news suggest the US economy spring revival. But what about gold? Will it blossom? Will the gold love trade take reins from gold as a safe haven play?
Retail Sales Surge
Last week, the government has released its latest report on the retail sector. The retail sales jumped 1.6 percent in March, the best results since September 2017, as one can see in the chart below. The change was above expectations (the economists polled by MarketWatch forecasted sales to climb 1.1 percent) and it was solid (0.9 percent) even if we set gas and autos aside.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Can Saudi Arabia Still Sway The Oil Market? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC's largest producer, has influenced the oil market and oil flows since the middle of the 20th century.
Shortly after the 21st century began, one of Saudi Arabia's key customers made its first steps toward becoming one of the Kingdom's main competitors on the global oil market: the United States began fracking for oil in the mid-2000s. By the end of the 2010s, the U.S. is now the world's biggest crude oil producer, having surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to claim the crown.
Sure, Saudi Arabia is one of the most important factors in global crude trade and oil market participants are lapping up every word and hint from the top oil officials in the Kingdom.
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