Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, December 01, 2017

Why Have You Been So Quiet About Metals? / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Avi_Gilburt

The question in the title is one of the most frequent comments I have been getting of late. And, the answer is quite simple: They are not doing anything right now. In fact, if you look at the charts, we have been in the same general region for several months.

But, you see, many of you really don’t want an update to know what I really think about the complex. Rather, many of you want an update to either soothe your emotions about the market, or to provide some confirmation bias for you. It has become purely emotional for you, so you feel the need to constantly deal with your emotions.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

The War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Stewart_Dougherty

Dictatorship (noun): Definition #3: absolute power or authority (Websters);
Def. #2: absolute, imperious or overbearing power or control (Random House);
Def. #3: Absolute or despotic control or power (American Heritage);
Def. #3: Absolute or supreme power or authority (Collins English Dictionary);
Def. #1: A type of government where absolute sovereignty is allotted
to an individual or small clique (Wikipedia).

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Low Cost Gold In The Age Of QE, AI, Trump and War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

‘Fear and Loathing In the Age of QE … AI’ is a presentation given at Mining Investment London earlier this week.

Stephen Flood, CEO of GoldCore presentation (28 minutes) was well received at the conference which is a strategic mining and investment conference for leaders in the mining and investment sectors, bringing together attendees from 20 countries.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Gold Being Odd and USD Being Tricky / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Every now and then we see some kind of anomaly on the precious metals market. Sometimes it’s particularly useful and sometimes it’s just something random. Yesterday was one of those days when something didn’t seem right. The USD Index rallied, silver declined, mining stocks declined and yet, gold closed the session higher. What can we infer from this uncommon event?

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Own Gold Bullion To “Support National Security” – Russian Central Bank / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– We own gold bullion to “support national security” – Russian Central Bank
– Russia warns Washington: Confiscating fx reserves would be “declaration of financial war”
– Russia has quadrupled its gold bullion reserves in decade
– BRICs discussing ‘the possibility of establishing a single (system of) gold trade’
– Russia, China & maybe Saudi Arabia form alliances to unseat petrodollar
– Putin warns state-owned and private companies: be ready for rapid transition to war-time operations
– Russia, China gold-buying, Saudi strategic shift signal petrodollar era ending

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Gold Fundamentals Are Not Bullish Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Too many technical analysts dismiss fundamentals. True, technicals usually lead fundamentals but understanding the fundamental drivers (when it comes to Gold) can give you an edge. Gold and gold stocks have remained below their 2016 peaks even in the face of a very weak US Dollar because the fundamentals are not there. Real rates have been stable in 2017 while the yield curve has been flattening. Until things change, Gold and gold stocks have little chance to breakout.  

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Quotes, Gloats, and Anecdotes from the Silver & Gold Summit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

Jeff Clark : I attended the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco November 20 and 21. It was great connecting with the many people I know in the industry, but I will tell you that a) attendance was low, and b) crypto promoters were out in force. It turned out to be more of a gold and crypto conference than anything else. Some of the more lively sessions were the gold vs. crypto debates, and one company offered “free bitcoin!” if you opened an account with them.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

The Oil Information Cartel Is (Finally) Broken / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

By Keith Schaefer : The below article was written by Keith Schaefer of Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin

A determined James Stafford of OilPrice.com just busted wide open an oil industry information cartel that has existed for decades.

Most investors look at WTI and Brent prices at Bloomberg or CME Futures, and figure the oil price is in the public domain.  You would be about 2 percent correct, because there are hundreds of different grades of oil, and hubs where it is bought and sold.  And they all have different prices.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Gold's Global Supply Artery: Heading for Cardiac Arrest / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

By David Smith: An oceanic-scale demand push from "all parts Far East" is building, as the desire to own gold and silver promises to place an increasingly solid foundation for years to come.

China, India, and Southeast Asia have historically accumulated precious metal as a savings vehicle, a hedge against political uncertainty (e.g. India's surprise call-in last year of 80% of the country's paper currency), and as an expression of affection. China's newly-emerging affluent middle class alone is set to become larger than the population of the U.S. Frank Holmes collectively refers to these elements as "love and fear trades".

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

There’s No Silver Deficit, and Hasn’t Been One For 10 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: David_Morgan

The ongoing debate in the industry is whether or not there is a surplus or a deficit of silver supply. However, to silver expert David Morgan of The Morgan Report, there hasn’t been a deficit in at least a decade. “In the past, we were in a deficit, from 1990 to 2006. From 2006 until now, we’ve been in a surplus,” he told Kitco News at the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco. “We are not and have not been in a silver deficit for the last 10 years.” However, Morgan remains optimistic that silver prices can move higher. “We have a good base here, we’re at the launch point in next 3-6 months,” he said. “2018 is going to be a good year for silver.”

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Inflation Target, Taylor Rule and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The central banks’ inability to achieve their inflation targets led some analysts to argue for modifying these targets. Are they inappropriate in a modern, globalized economy? Should central banks change them? Or should they conduct a more rule-based policy, as John Taylor argues? How would such moves affect the gold market?

As a reminder, the Fed (as well as other major central banks) targets 2-percent inflation. It may seem to be strange, as such a level is far away from the price stability (which, taken literally, means neither inflation nor deflation), which the central banks should are obliged to ensure. However, deflation is a central banks’ worst nightmare, so they want to have some buffer in case of negative demand shock. With the inflation target at zero, the margin of error would be very limited. But central banks have been missing their targets for years – should they change them?

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Tech Breakthrough Could Transform The Oil Sector / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

‘Implosive’ Silver Vulnerable To Big Price Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

Admittedly, it must sound encouraging, and even exciting, to hear proclamations that a “silver” lining is now apparent in the metals complex. Or that a silver “blast-off (is) about to happen”.

Expectations abound for the long-expected, vertical leap in silver prices that never seems to come. And we are told it is supported by solid fundamentals that include supply deficits, a return to the 16 to 1 gold/silver ratio, increasing monetary demand for silver, etc.However, an examination of those fundamentals reveals a different picture. And that picture is inconsistent with the call for higher prices.

Monday, November 27, 2017

OPEC Will Extend The Production Cut / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

There will be an OPEC deal extension—no matter the public tussling between opposing forces in the industry cartel—if the world's largest oil producers are really determined to end the supply glut.

A failure to agree on the market remediation would cause oil prices to plummet immediately, forfeiting any gains that have been made in the last year.

Saudi Arabia needs $60 per barrel for its Aramco initial public offering to be a success in the second half of next year. It plans to sell just five percent of its prized company in the largest IPO in financial history, but a low price could force the country to sell a larger share, siphoning off government revenues at a time of strained budgets.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

The Big Three Commodities : Copper, Oil and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you some long term charts for the big three, Copper, Oil and Gold. There are a lot of similarities between them which is strongly suggesting all three should be in new bull markets. The laggard is gold which has still not confirmed its new bull market but is getting closer as you will see. The key will be what the US dollar has up its sleeves so lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar.

The US dollar still hasn’t totally broken down yet, but it did have a failed inverse H&S bottom. It was a very beautiful and symmetrical H&S bottom that looked like it was going to reverse the downtrend that is right at a year old now. It had a nice clean breakout above the neckline with a clean backtest from above. All looked good. After a brief rally the US dollar declined once more to the neckline, but this time the neckline failed to hold support, strongly suggesting the H&S bottom was failing.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Silver Mining Stocks Q3’17 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have really languished this year, grinding sideways to lower for months on end.  This vexing consolidation has fueled near-universal bearishness, leaving silver stocks deeply out of favor.  But once a quarter when earnings season arrives, hard fundamentals pierce the obscuring veil of popular sentiment.  The silver miners’ recently-reported Q3’17 results reveal today’s silver prices remain profitable.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada.  They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  There’s no silver-miner data that is more highly anticipated than quarterlies.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– FOMC minutes show uncertainty and concern about markets are affecting officials’ decision-making
– Officials were cautious when evaluating market conditions and the ‘damaging effects on the economy’
– Worry about ‘potential buildup of financial imbalances’ and a sharp reversal in asset prices’
– Members seem oblivious to impact of inflation on households and savings
– Physical gold and silver remain the only assets for real diversification and safety

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Is This Gold Rally The Start Of Something Big? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Sunday Nov 19 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: While I would love to believe that the rally we saw on Friday is the start of the next larger degree break out in the metals complex for which many have been eagerly awaiting, there are many signs that suggest it is only part of a corrective rally.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown that the gold price behaves quite peculiarly in the course of the trading week. On average, prices rise almost exclusively on Friday. It is as though investors in this market were mired in deep sleep for most of the week.

Upon this I received a plethora of inquiries from readers regarding the corresponding moves in silver.

Thus I examine the behavior of the silver market on individual days of the week in this issue of Seasonal Insights.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Geopolitical risk highest “in four decades” should push gold higher – Citi
– Elections, political and macroeconomic crises and war lead to gold investment
– Political uncertainty in Germany means “gold likely to remain in good demand as a safe haven” say Commerzbank
–  “There has rarely been such political uncertainty in Germany at any time in the country’s post-war history” – Commerzbank
– Reduce counter party risk: own safe haven allocated and segregated gold