Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

This was going to be part of an NFTRH update, but I decided to make it public, as we’ll have plenty of other information to work on this weekend in NFTRH 474 after such an eventful market week.

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally.  This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness.  But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs.  The major gold miners’ just-reported Q3’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Mystery of Inflation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the September FOMC press conference, Yellen admitted that subdued inflation was a puzzle for the Fed. She said:

“This year, the shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, when none of those factors is operative is more of a mystery, and I will not say that the committee clearly understands what the causes are of that.”

Actually, the chart below shows that inflation has been subdued for years. The last time when the CPI was above the Fed’s 2-percent target (formally set in January 2012) in a decisive and lasting way was in 2011 and at the beginning of 2012.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent weeks, it was hard to avoid the topic of crude oil, turning on the TV or opening a newspaper. Developments in the Middle East, escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the upcoming meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers as well as the Baker Hughes reports, crude oil and its products inventories were mainly in the interest of investors.

Since our last Oil Investment Update, light crude extended gains and hit fresh 2017 highs. Black gold’s rally, which began in early October, has been mainly driven by growing indications that the crude market was finally starting to rebalance and hopes that the OPEC cuts agreement would be extended beyond March 2018.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Gold’s Long-term Analogies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

A daily rally in gold, daily decline, daily turnaround and other daily price developments are both interesting and dangerous. Interesting, because nothing is as exciting as a big intraday move. Dangerous, because they can make one too emotional about a given trading position and lose the focus on the big picture (forgetting about the forest by focusing on individual trees). In today’s analysis, we feature two analogies to the previous situations in gold which should make it clearer what’s likely to be seen in the coming months, even if a lot of daily price swings in both directions are about to be seen shortly.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Store Precious Metals Yourself (Hint: It’s More Than The Risk Of Theft) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: HAA

Olivier Garret : There’s nothing like holding a gold coin in the palm of your hand. So it’s not surprising that many investors prefer to store precious metals at home or somewhere nearby.

But is it worth the trouble?

While I agree that having some precious metals stored safely at home may benefit you in the event of a major crisis paralyzing the financial system, that should amount only to a small portion of your holdings.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Did The Fed’s Alan Greenspan Admit Gold Is Being Manipulated? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

Every now and then I see another analyst publicly claim that the gold market is being manipulated. And, the reason they come to that conclusion is because the market moved in way “they did not expect.”

Now, for those of us who are thinking people, we clearly see the issue with such a perspective. Why is it “manipulation” when an analyst is not able to recognize their own limitations?

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

It may be frustrating to watch the gold price remain dormant as stock markets continue to push higher. But while cryptos and Trump grab a lot of the headlines, you might be surprised to know there are significant forces behind the scenes that signal the gold market is not only strong but suggest something big is coming.

Check out these reports from the last 30 days and see what conclusion you’d draw…

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Is Peak Permian Only 3 Years Away? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

The world’s hottest shale basin, the Permian, is leading the second U.S. wave of tight oil production growth and will continue to do so for years to come, all analysts say.   

However, signs have started to emerge that the relentless intensification of drilling leads to diminishing returns, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an article this week. Pumping twice as much sand as usual into Permian wells and drilling longer laterals doesn’t deliver commensurate volumes of oil, Flowers notes.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– New ECB paper proposes ‘covered deposits’ should be replaced to allow for more flexibility
– Fear covered deposits may lead to a run on the banks
– Savers should be reminded that a bank’s word is never its bond and to reduce counterparty exposure
– Physical gold enable savers to stay out of banking system and reduce exposure to bail-ins

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Bob_Loukas

This is my favorite time within any Cycle.  Mostly because it’s one of three points within an Investor Cycle where the probability of getting it right is as favorable as it will ever be.  If played correctly, it’s also the type of setup where your portfolio can be given a significant boost.  In this case, I am of course talking about the final Daily Cycle top, where the move down into the Daily and Investor Cycle Lows is often the most powerful and convincing of events.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion, full (150% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.

In our previous free analysis we discussed the silver market viewed from the non-USD perspective and we commented on the possibility of seeing a more visible corrective downswing in the USD after it moved closer to the 96 level. In today’s essay, we would like to further elaborate on the white metal – not only because we saw another sign in the non-USD silver price, but also because we would like to reveal a technique that can tell us when the next reversal in silver is likely to take place.

Monday, November 13, 2017

The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 / Commodities / Cobalt

By: OilPrice_Com

Pay close attention to this cobalt chart. Demand could be about to surge from 2k tonnes today... to over 300k tonnes in 2030.  That’s a 14,900% increase in demand.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Gold Investment Stalled / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Gold has largely been drifting sideways for the better part of a couple months now, sapping enthusiasm.  Gold investment demand has stalled due to extreme stock-market euphoria.  Investors aren’t interested in alternative investments led by gold when stocks seemingly do nothing but rally indefinitely.  But once stock-market volatility inevitably returns, so will gold investment demand which fuels major gold uplegs.

Like nearly everything else in the global markets, gold prices are heavily dependent on investment capital flows.  When investors are buying gold in a meaningful way, demand exceeds supply which drives gold’s price higher.  When they’re materially selling, supply trumps demand thus gold’s price naturally retreats.  The past couple months have been stuck in the middle, with gold investment flows neutral on balance.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In both 2015 and 2016, the price of gold bottomed in December, as one can see in the chart below.

Chart 1: Gold prices (London P.M. Fix) from January 2015 to October 2017.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

This week both Brent Crude and WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) made a new price high in more than 2 years with Brent Crude rising to $64 per barrel and WTI to $57 per barrel. These price gains come before the OPEC’s meeting later this month on Nov 30. In the past two years, OPEC has imposed production cuts in its member countries in order to remove excess inventory and halt the price drop. In their last meeting on May, the cartel agreed to extend 1.8 million barrel a day cuts into the first quarter of 2018.

Friday, November 10, 2017

The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Dimitri_Speck

Dear Investor,

You are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequent weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely known anomalies, there are many others though, which most investors have never heard of. These anomalies can be particularly interesting and profitable for investors – and there are several in the precious metals sector as well.  Today I am going to introduce one of those to you.

Friday, November 10, 2017

A “Silver” Lining In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

When I look at the 3 charts that I follow in the metals complex, they seem to be telling a different story today, at least in their micro structures.

Silver seems to have broken out of its downtrend, and can be viewed as having completed wave i of its (c) wave to the target box above. GLD seems to be stuck in neutral, with the same “potential” structure as silver, but without as much clarity to its micro count as silver has potentially presented.

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Psychological Warfare in the Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

For almost a year now the PM stock indexes have been building out a triangle trading range that has yet to be determined if it is going to be a consolidation pattern or a reversal pattern. With big patterns one can lose sight of what is really there, as the longer a trading range develops the more trendlines one puts on a chart, and the more confusing things become.

Tonight I would like to show you, from a Chartology perspective, what the basic patterns are, from the short term to the longer term. The bigger a trading range the more chart patterns can develop before we see the final product. Sometimes it’s totally different from the early stages of the trading range. It’s important to clear ones mind of all the preconceived notions of what they think is happening to just what the charts are suggesting. It’s a hard thing for most investors to do because of all the things we read each and everyday which works on our subconscious. More than anything else we are playing a game of psychological warfare.

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Negative Divergence in the Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

After a severe selloff, precious metals have enjoyed a bit of a respite. Corrections are a function of time and/or price. The correction to the recent selloff has been more in time than than price. Metals and miners have stabilized over the past nine trading days but have not rebounded much in price terms. Gold has barely rallied $20/oz while GDX and GDXJ have rebounded less than 4% and 5% respectively. In addition to the weakness of this rally, the gold stocks are sporting a negative divergence and that does not bode well for an end of the year rally.