Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
How The Credit Markets Will Blow Up During The Coming Silver Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Hubert_Moolman
During the previous silver bull market, interest rates and silver moved in the same direction (up). This makes sense, given the fact that silver and interest rates move together in the long run – for the last 100 years at least.
The current silver bull market (since 2001) has seen a big divergence between silver prices and interest rates. Below, is a comparison of interest rates and silver prices since 1962:
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $48.56 and initial downside target at $35.24) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil increased after the market's open, approaching Thursday's high, the commodity gave up some gains in the following hours weakened by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed another day under the resistance line. Will it be strong enough to stop oil bulls in the coming days?
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Madness in the Crimex Gold and Silver Trading Pits / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Michael Ballanger Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses effects of the Bank of Japan's actions on the U.S. dollar, silver and gold
The "big story" circulating around the blogosphere yesterday and last evening was a paper authored by Pimco' s "strategist" Harley Bassman that essentially opined that "the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy." Well, isn't that original? Back in 2013 I reviewed Michael Lewis' follow-up to "The Big Short," a brilliant piece of work entitled "Boomerang—Travels in the New Third World" where Lewis interviews a Deputy Finance Minister at the German Bundesbank who told Lewis that because Germany had 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, its entire government debt was "covered." At the time, I was listening to the audiobook while on a treadmill and I actually had a Eureka moment and immediately texted myself a reminder to make that the central theme of the weekend note to clients, which I did.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2016
CRB, Gold, Oil, Cotton, Coffee - 7 Must See Commodities Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: InvestingHaven
Commodities are in a positive cycle. It is too early to tell whether the long term bear market is over, but short and medium term momentum is clearly in favor of commodity bulls.
In this article, we revise 7 must-see charts covering the commodities complex, which reveal current and future investment opportunities.
First, the CRB commodoties index bottomed in January of this year. At that point in time, sentiment was even worse than during the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. The first chart shows how bad sentiment was in the last months of 2015 / early January 2016, see lower pane. Consequently, the upside potential is enormous as commodities are currently nowhere near positive sentiment levels.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Gold Price Target is $3,000 and Silver is $75 per Ounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jason_Hamlin
Precious metals have posted their best quarter in nearly 30 years and mining stocks are soaring from oversold multi-year lows. Those that were willing to buy when everyone else was selling have been handsomely rewarded in 2016. But we believe the gains are just getting started.
After such a huge move to start the year, many have been anticipating a sharp pullback for gold and silver on profit taking. This would make sense, especially considering the record short positions by commercial traders. Plus, nothing goes straight up, not even deeply oversold assets awakening from a 4-year correction. It is almost always a roller coaster ride.
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Monday, April 25, 2016
It’s Waayyy Too Early to Take Profits on Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
It was no fun investing in precious metals for most of 2011-2015, but the past few months have sure been a blast for buy-and-hold investors. Silver prices are 22.5% year to date, and gold isn’t far behind.
Now that there are some profits available to take, some metals investors wonder if they should grab them. The answer for most people is not yet -- not even close.
Yes, there are gains. But the real question for investors isn’t whether or not there are profits, it’s whether there are better options for their investment dollars. What other assets have a better risk/reward profile? Cash? Stocks? Bonds? No thank you!
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Monday, April 25, 2016
Interesting Silver Debate: Do Old Indicators Matter Or Is Physical About To Overrun Paper? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: John_Rubino
For as long as most gold and silver investors can remember, the paper markets — that is, banks and speculators placing bets with futures contracts — have set the price of those metals. And within the paper markets, “the commercials” — fabricators and big banks — have time-and-gain fooled speculators like hedge funds into piling in (both long and short) at exactly the wrong time.
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Gold and Silver Management of Perceptions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jesse
Gold took a $20 hit after the European close today, moving down from 1250 to 1230.
And the theme of the day seemed to be 'buy paper, don't worry' with the pushing of the SP 500 futures, even though techs kept threatening to roll over here on weak to bad earnings reports.
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Sunday, April 24, 2016
Gold Miners Nub is the Sweat of the Sun / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Richard_Mills
Gold miners, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe gold producing countries, ie Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. The move out of these “safe haven” countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.
In many parts of the world capitalist hating Marxist governments are becoming greedy. Many countries might come to mind as places where shareholders could, without warning, receive news that their operations have been taken over, expropriated, by the government and/or its friends, or that permits are suddenly suffering delays or have been cancelled outright.
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Saturday, April 23, 2016
A Bright Future for Solar Power in the Middle East / Commodities / Solar Energy
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- Geography and demographic challenges have made parts of the Middle East and North Africa a prime location for solar power installations.
- While solar will not supplant the role of hydrocarbons, it will enable countries such as Morocco and Jordan to improve energy security and potentially become electricity exporters.
- Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will seek to maintain their position as energy exporters, in part by adopting strategies likely to include renewables development.
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Silver Commitments of Traders – Halloween is Arriving Early This Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dan_Norcini
By that I mean, it just keeps getting scarier and scarier.
My guess is that every speculator on the planet is long silver/short gold or outright long silver.
That of course is an exaggeration but I am not exaggerating when I categorically state that the silver market is a train wreck just waiting to happen. As I have said before, and will say so again – I would rather miss any more upside in this market than get long now, not with a trade so lopsidedly jammed with speculators on the long side. I will leave that for the daredevils and others who like driving the stagecoach as close to the edge of the mountain pass road as they possibly can.
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Saturday, April 23, 2016
Good News, Bad News, Both Favor Gold And Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_Noonan
First, the good news and taking a moment to celebrate the recent unstoppable rally in both gold and silver where, as has been expected, silver is outperforming gold. While we have stayed clear of paper futures from the long side, over the past few years, almost each and every week we have continued our mantra of buying and accumulating the physical metal. It is beginning to pay off, especially for purchases made throughout last year and this one.
This is not yet a victory lap, for the market remains in its transitioning phase, but the faithful, for what has always been considered the only true form of money: gold and silver, can relax more and shed the deer-in-the-headlights look after seeing both pummeled to the downside so relentlessly over the past several years by the money changers.
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Friday, April 22, 2016
Gold Stocks Climbing Epic Wall of Worry / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The gold stocks have had a tremendous rally in recent months that has left most investors and even gold bulls on the sidelines. From low tick to high tick GDXJ has more than doubled while GDX has nearly doubled. Indices such as the HUI and XAU have more than doubled. It has been a fantastic rally yet both anecdotal and actual data suggests there has been a major wall of worry building. Although gold stocks may be starting a correction, the presence of a strong wall of worry provides further confirmation of a major trend change.
In recent weeks readers and followers of various gold centric websites have been bombarded with bearish commentaries from pundits and analysts forecasting a correction. More than a month ago the reasoning was the commitment of traders (CoT) report. More recently, the reasoning revolved around an alleged “parabolic move” in the gold stocks and a budding head and shoulders top in Gold.
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Friday, April 22, 2016
Silver’s New Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Silver officially entered a new bull market this week, decisively crossing the necessary +20% threshold. Speculators and investors alike are returning as awareness spreads of how radically undervalued silver is compared to prevailing gold prices. When silver awakens to a new bull market after a long bearish slumber, massive gains are usually unleashed. Silver’s tiny advance so far is just the tip of the iceberg.
Friday, April 22, 2016
Who are Gold Traders? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Commitments of Traders Report is one of the most important publications on the gold market. It is usually published every Friday at 15:30 Eastern time by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to provide market participants "a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC". Unfortunately the readers don't get a full picture because of a three day lag between a report and the actual positioning of traders (though the report is issued on Friday, it contains Tuesday's data). The open interest, analyzed in the report, is the total number of futures contracts not yet liquidated by an offsetting transaction or fulfilled by delivery.
Friday, April 22, 2016
Gold Price Forms Bearish Double Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Austin_Galt
The gold price saw some volatile price action today after hitting upside resistance and reversing back down impulsively. Let's check out the daily and monthly charts and see the bearish pattern that has formed.
Friday, April 22, 2016
President Trump? President Clinton? Gold Up in Both Scenarios / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton may have very little in common, but Barry Allan, vice chair of mining for Mackie Research Capital, says if either moves into the White House, the U.S. dollar will fall and gold will rise. A higher gold price bodes well for gold equities, and in this interview with The Gold Report, Allan and his colleague Ryan Hanley share the names of some of their top picks for this environment.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Gold and Silver are on the Cusp of a Massive Rally! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold and silver have more or less confirmed they have bottomed and are ready for a multi-year rally. Their trend has not fully ‘reversed’ to the upside yet but the market breadth and internals for the precious metals sector are very bullish. My subscribers know that I am ‘bullish’ on precious metals and believe that they will be the best performing ‘asset class’ within the next three to five years for those who can only buy long (profit from rising prices). There are a few more big opportunities unfolding in other assets also but that is not what this article focuses on.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Gold, Silver Blow Off in Progress but 'Launch Phase' Confirmed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
On March 4 we reviewed the technical reasons why the gold sector was launching as opposed to blowing off. This, after articles began appearing calling the rise to that point a doomed parabolic blow off using daily charts. Those calling it a blow off were confused; silver in spring 2011 was a blow off in the terminal sense. But when a parabolic move comes off a bottom, it is an impulsive thrust to change the trend, possibly ending the bear market.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Crude Oil Complacency Climbs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: AnyOption
US production at 18-month lows was partly behind the recent surge in crude oil prices following yet another report of building onshore inventories. Despite the veritable flood of crude oil prices hitting global markets, crude prices continue to rise amid rising speculation that key global producers will elect to increase production even further. Since the freeze deal fell through, Russia has underlined its doubts that any such agreement will be possible, potentially paving the way for OPEC members to further stray from a single policy, opting instead to put national interests ahead of economic rationality. While prices have jumped to the highest levels since November on new forecasts that anticipate a rebalancing of the market my 2017, complacency amongst traders continues to grow as problematic fundamental conditions remain intact.Read full article... Read full article...