Friday, June 30, 2017
The Fed Has No Control Over Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
Ben Bernanke uttered the word taper in 2013, signaling that quantitative easing’s days were numbered. No one knew how the Fed would escape from years of QE and near-zero rates. But to her credit, Yellen accepted the challenge in late 2013.
She tapered the Fed’s bond buying down to zero (except for reinvestment of dividends and maturity rollovers) and began the rate-hike cycle. But that hasn’t normalized interest rates.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
The Real Indian Currency Crisis (Things You Don’t Hear In The News) / Currencies / India
By: HAA
Jayant Bhandari writes: On November 8, 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropped a bombshell. In a televised address at 8:00 pm, he declared that after midnight—four hours later—banknotes with face values of INR500 (US$7.50) and INR1,000 (US$15) would no longer be legal tender.
These bills comprised 86% of the monetary value of currency in circulation, so to say that panic ensued would be an understatement. The market stayed open all night as people rushed to buy gold, Rolex watches, and anything else they could get their hands on to use up their cash.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
The Matter with Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
Bitcoin’s valuation surged in the first five months of this year. And in the sixth, it plateaued. What does this tell us – about Bitcoin itself and about the actual state of financial markets?The facts alone are of almost no importance. Some investments thrive, others don’t and some are stable. That is trivial. And for Bitcoin’s surge, there are plenty of reasons. After all, it is a deflationary “system” (leaving it open, if it is a currency and whatnot). This means, the total number of units supplied is limited. Furthermore, demand widens and even government offices, for example in Japan or Switzerland, started to accept Bitcoins as public tender. Tight supply and more demand results in higher prices.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
How High Could Crude Oil Price Go? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Wednesday, the black gold gained 1.13% after encouraging the EIA weekly report. As a result, light crude climbed to the previously-broken lower border of the trend channel, but closed the day below it. Will we see further improvement in the coming days?
Although yesterday’s EIA weekly report showed that crude oil inventories rose by 118,000 barrels in the previous week (missing expectations of a draw), the report also showed that gasoline inventories, dropped by 894,000 barrels (beating analysts’ forecasts), while distillate stockpiles declined by 223,000 barrels and beat expectations of a rise of 453,000 barrels.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Stock Market VIX Spike Prediction Revisited / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearly 2 weeks ago, we issued a research/analysis report indicating our analysts had seen a VIX pattern that forecasted a VIX spike on June 29th of this month to coincide with a potential explosive move in the markets. Today (June 29th) the vix spiked over 45% exactly as we has predicted, so we thought we would revisit this analysis and update our valued followers.
Recently, as many of you already know by being ATP members, the US and global markets have rotated on a number of news items and concerns. First, the IMF revised US economic expectations to address slower than expected economic activity. Next, NASDAQ technology stocks have recently been very volatile in relative terms and have driven some very big moves. Additionally, just last weekend two banks in Italy have been closed as a result of failed ability to raise capital levels to support activities/risk. Lastly, the BITCOIN drama seems to be continuing with this recent ransom-ware outbreak originating from within Ukraine. All this uncertainty and risk is a bit concerning for the markets in terms of volatility.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Blinded by the Money Illusion - chronology of panics, manias, crashes and collapses / Currencies / Financial Crash
By: Michael_J_Kosares
"Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we're much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be." – Fed chair Janet Yellen
With those words, Janet Yellen put investors around the world on notice, though probably not in the way she intended. In the past, such smug assurances have been enough to send contrarian villagers heading for the safety of the near-by woods. The informed student of financial history knows that panics, manias, crashes and collapses are as common to investment markets as thunderstorms are to placid summer afternoons. To think that suddenly we have banished their recurrence for "our lifetimes" smacks of the kind of misguided hubris that contributed directly to the 2008 meltdown and subsequent untold financial hardship. Just about the time most everyone came to the conclusion nothing could go wrong, everything went wrong. . . and in a hurry.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Soft Fake BrExit as Theresa May Destroys Britain's Strong EU Negotiating Stance / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So everyone got the 2017 UK general election outcome WRONG. Which included my UK house prices based analysis that was the most accurate predictor of the 2015 general election, however this time based on April house price data implied a Conservative win on 342 seats. So despite being the most accurate of all of the forecasts out there, nevertheless did get the election outcome wrong i.e. unlike for Trump there was no betting markets profits bonanza for this election.
Friday, June 30, 2017
Three Main Lies About Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Adam_ODell
Volatility gets a bad rap.The media typically portrays it as the financial world’s evil villain personified, saying things like…
“Volatility reared its ugly head on Monday.”
Or…
“Volatility is striking fear into the heart of the masses.”
You can almost picture the CGI monster Hollywood would create – the “Volatility Viper” – with its ten snake heads and blood-dripping fangs, snapping at Wall Street suits as they run for their lives.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Canada Real Estate Bubble / Housing-Market / Canada
By: Harry_Dent
I’ve been seeing a lot in the news lately about Canadian and Australian real estate prices. Here’s just a sampling:New Brunswick real estate offers a lesson on peak housing prices
Condo flipping on the rise as Vancouver market heats up
Face it Canada – you’re a real estate addict and no one wants a cure
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Yellen’s Delusional Statement Guarantees Stock Market Crash Around the Corner / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Harry_Dent
Janet Yellen Said What!?She just had to do it!
Human behavior and its accompanying delusion is just so predictable! Earlier this week, she straight up said that “she does not believe there will be another financial crisis in her (our) lifetime…”
WHAT?!
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Sheffield Hanover Tower Cladding Nightmare as Costs Spiral Out of Control / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Broomhall Hanover flats tower are Sheffield's first tower blocks to fail urgent fire safety tests in the wake of the Grenfell Tower Fire disaster that prompted the city council to in a panic announce the removal of all of the substandard cladding from Hanover Tower, work on which began earlier this week, starting with two sides of the tower blocks cordoned off.
Thursday, June 29, 2017
The Fed Has Officially “Rung the Bell” For the Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed just “rang the bell” on the market top.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s right hand man, John Williams made the following statement yesterday:
“The stock market seems to be running pretty much on fumes,” San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said in an interview carried on Sydney’s ABC News affiliate and available on the internet on Tuesday. “It’s something that clearly is a risk to the U.S. economy, some correction there — it’s something we have to be prepared for to respond to if it does happen.”
Thursday, June 29, 2017
5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East / Politics / Middle East
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND KAMRAN BOKHARI : Nation-states are the defining feature of the modern political era. They give people a collective identity and a pride of place… even when their borders are artificially drawn, as they were in the Middle East.
However, transnational issues like religion and ethnicity often get in the way of the notion of nationalism. Those can’t be contained by a country’s borders.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
USD Cycle Status/Outlook: Short term is a bit cloudy but my preferred count is day 10. Longer term, it is clear that the USD is still seeking out its Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). If my last ICL is correct, we are now nearing the 5 month timeframe is a normal 5-6 mont ICL timing band.
Once the YCL is found, my expectations are that future rallies will be still be corrective in nature against the longer term cycle trend which should now be down. Out of the next ICL, the next IC High should be a lower high.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
India Is Likely to Become the First Digital, Cashless Society / Currencies / War on Cash
By: John_Mauldin
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : The top news out of India over the past 12 months has been President Modi’s move to ban 85% of the currency in circulation. However, something much more far-reaching has happened.
It’s called India Stack.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
The Fed Is Pursuing An After-Me-The-Deluge Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
I think there is a mixture of political bias and legacy-building that is driving Federal Reserve policy. The simple fact is that the Fed should have been normalizing interest rates starting in 2013.
Fifty basis points a year, and we would be at 2% now. That is not exactly a torrid rate-hike path. It cannot be seen as putting your foot on the brakes. It’s simply moving to normalize a situation that everybody realizes is abnormal.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In options trading, a straddle is literally a sit-on-the-fence strategy. By purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (price of underlying commodity) for the same time period, an investor isn’t making a conventional directional bet; rather the investor is looking for a big move either up or down. The rub is that the big move must be greater than the sum of the two option premia or the bet goes south. But that is in the nature of the trade.
Thursday, June 29, 2017
Stocks Rebounded Off Tuesday's Low, New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, June 29, 2017
Stock Market Correction May Complete Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are mildly positive this morning. In addition, the quarter end and the Cycles Model are positive for at least another day. That suggests Wave [c] may complete near the Cycle Top today in an expanded flat correction, dominated by a very long Wave [b].
The Summer quarter end is usually positive. As mentioned earlier, early short entries are usually subject to draw-downs. The VIX and Hi-Lo have not made sell signals, yet. Thus, only partial positions have been recommended. That will change very soon.
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Thursday, June 29, 2017
GBPUSD rebounded from 1.2589 / Currencies / British Pound
By: Franco_Shao
Being supported by the 20-weekly moving average on its weekly chart, the GBPUSD pair rebounded from 1.2589, suggesting that lengthier consolidation for the long term downtrend from the July 2014 high of 1.7190 is needed.