Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Here is How You Fix the Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

The Mining Industry Approach

Monday, January 11, 2016

Economic Recession, Could the Unthinkable Happen in 2016? / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Clif_Droke

The most important question investors should be asking at this point isn’t whether the secular bull market which began in 2009 is over, but whether continued equity market weakness in 2016 will lead to the unthinkable, namely an economic recession.  A recession in 2016 has been deemed virtually impossible by most mainstream economists, so much so that all discussion of this possibility has evaporated.  And while most U.S. economic data categories are still admittedly strong, the persistent weakness under the surface of the equity market over the last several months demands that the topic be reexamined.   

Monday, January 11, 2016

Junk Rhymes with Subprime / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

On December 16th 2008, in what Ben Bernanke averred took a tremendous amount of "moral courage", the Federal Reserve officially arrived at its Zero Interest Rate Policy. ZIRP was a huge win for borrowers because it drove down the carrying cost of debt to historic lows. Unfortunately, savers didn't fare as well.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Crude Oil Price Closed Week under 2009 Low! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.14% as concerns over a global supply glut, the situation in China and the Middle East continued to weigh on investors sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed the week under the 2009 low. Does it mean that we’ll see a test of the barrier of $30 in the coming weeks?

Monday, January 11, 2016

Think Tiny When it Comes to 2016 Real Estate Investments / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Submissions

Larissa James writes: For years, homes have been getting bigger and bigger. As a result, real estate investors have tied their money up in massive properties and McMansions. And while there will always be a demand for large luxury homes, there’s a growing trend that’s evolving into a new real estate investment opportunity. They’re classified as “tiny homes,” but cash flow is anything but tiny for those willing to take on new risks.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Bulls are Rethinking Their Positions... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX just took out Friday’s low at 1918.46 and may be resuming the decline to 1880.00. What we witnessed on Friday was not a fourth wave pattern. The next alternative pattern may be an extended third wave. We must wait for the decline to give us more definition before labeling it, since there are several alternatives.

Monday, January 11, 2016

A Stock Market Bear Party Perhaps / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Bob_Loukas

This blog post is a continuation of the bearish theme I highlighted and posted for you back in December, titled: Game Changing Action

Maybe 2016 will be the year when equity bears finally get to celebrate. Although I wouldn’t call an end to the “buy the dip” era quite yet, the current market has a different type of feel and vibe to it. Many people believe – and there is supporting historical evidence – that as January goes for equities, so goes the year. Bulls should hope this axiom doesn’t hold in 2016. The month is still young, but the first week of January ushered in the worst 5-day start to a year in the S&P 500’s history. The last time the market started a year this poorly was 2008, and we know how that turned out.

Monday, January 11, 2016

The “Hanging in There” Game for Oil Producers / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: EconMatters

9.2 Million Barrels

The latest EIA report shows the US Production rate steady and holding at the 9.2 million barrels per day. And although there have been some anecdotal reports out of Canada at the start of the year on this recent down leg in oil prices, that this has triggered them to shut down production, that at these prices it makes no sense to continue operations; the rest of the beleaguered producers in the oil space are continuing to operate and hold on throwing more bad money after bad money.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Another Poor Year for UK Annuity Rates / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: MoneyFacts

New research from Moneyfacts has revealed that 2015 was another poor year for annuity rates as low gilts, uncertainty created by the new pension freedoms and preparations for Solvency II took their toll.

Annuity rates have more than halved since 1994

The research found that annuity rates in 2015 fell for the second year running, and have now declined in 17 out of the 21 calendar years since Moneyfacts started surveying the annuity market in 1994. During this period the average annual income payable from a standard level without guarantee annuity has fallen by a considerable 56%.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Rigged U.S. Ttreasury Bond Market Double Barreled Hidden Q.E. To Infinity / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

We were just treated to a fake official rate hike, and it was cleverly executed. The recent supposed USFed rate hike was a gigantic fraud, a misdirection, a clever ploy, and an act of extreme desperation. We were told of an official 25 basis point interest rate hike. But a hike of 0.25% is nowhere to be seen. The reality is that the USFed is so strapped, so deeply under siege, so overwhelmed, that it requires urgent help from the USDept Treasury. So they have expanded QE to become Double Barreled Hidden QE to Infinity. It has an important feature now, with national security stamped on it. This is truly the end game for the USDollar. Big thanks to Rob Kirby and EuroRaj on my colleague team for leading the way and shining the spotlight. Their abilities to see through the maze, smoke, mirrors, and din is impressive.

Monday, January 11, 2016

SPX, TNX are Challenging their Cycle Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is higher but not critically so. There are five waves down from the underside of the 4.25 year trendline, but the middle wave is the shortest, suggesting a correction is underway and not the fifth wave. So we may expect a sharp, but short sub-Minute Wave (c) to resistance at the Cycle Bottom at 1954.03.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Must See Presentation: “Wealth” of “Positive Catalysts” for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Grant Williams gave another must see presentation at the Mines and Money Conference in London last month, laying out why he believes the gold price is languishing despite a wealth of what would ordinarily be “positive catalysts.”

Williams’ presentation is titled “Gold: The Unsurance Policy — Love It or Loathe It.” It is 28 minutes long and can be viewed here:

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Mixed Expectations Following Last Week's Sharp Decline - Reversal Or Just Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, January 11, 2016

A brand new year, but the same-old savings rates / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

The start of the New Year has prompted many to resolve to put more aside more money for a rainy day. However, while savers’ intentions are in the right place, Moneyfacts.co.uk’s research shows that few may be encouraged to follow through thanks to less than enticing savings rates.

In fact, the average easy access ISA rate has fallen by 0.19% from two years ago to stand at 1.06% yearly, the lowest level Moneyfacts.co.uk has ever recorded.

Monday, January 11, 2016

What’s Up with the HUI and Gold ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

“UP” it was, but the intermediate term chart is certainly not that impressive, given the pandemonium that has been taking place since the start of the New Year.

The index does seem to have carved out a bottom just above the 100 level but it must take out initial resistance near 140 and then again above the 50 period moving average to give chartists some reason to turn more solidly bullish. As things stand now, all it looks like the index has done is to bounce off a bottom and trek higher towards to the upper bounds of a sideways trading pattern. For a bullish breakout to occur, 150 will have to be cleared.

Monday, January 11, 2016

NEW Mathematical Model For Predicting The NEXT US Stock Market Flash Crash / InvestorEducation / Financial Crash

By: Dr_David_J_Harris

SUMMARY:

A new mathematical model has been developed that predicts future significant corrections in the US stock market, but in particular it has the potential to predict the next US stock market flash crash.

• In Q4 2015, a new mathematical model was developed with the potential to predict the next US stock market flash crash, prior to the actual event.
• Originally built to calculate strength in price movement in a stock index, the new model can be used to predict significant periods of price weakness.
• Key market corrections, including the recent stock market flash crash events of May 2010 and August 2015 are correctly identified by the model, in advance.
• In addition, key waterfall type corrections, including February 2009, August 2011 and May 2012 are successfully identified by the model, in advance.
• Predictions for 2016 are presented in this article.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Short Term Bottom at Hand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, I was looking for a nasty down week in the stock market, but up in GDX, GLD and NUGT into Jan 7th. GDX made a sudden reversal down on Jan 8th and is likely confined within a slight downward trend within an upwardly tilted bull flag until around Jan 21st. The stock market has either already bottomed or likely to do so no later than mid Monday Jan 11th.

Overall, I think we are in the early stages of a bear market that could take the SPX down to near 1000 or slightly lower by October. We are in year 8 of the commodity cycle low (last seen 2008, 2000, 1992, 1984, and 1976).

Monday, January 11, 2016

Oregon Standoff: Isolated Event or Sign of Things to Come? / Politics / US Politics

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

The nation's attention turned to Oregon this week when a group calling itself Citizens for Constitutional Freedom seized control of part of a federal wildlife refuge. The citizens were protesting the harsh sentences given to members of the Hammond ranching family. The Hammonds were accused of allowing fires set on their property to spread onto federal land.

Monday, January 11, 2016

The Shrinking Global Economy, In Three Charts / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Rubino

Regular contributor Michael Pollaro offers three more charts which tell a story that's both disturbing and apparently misunderstood by a lot of mainstream analysts.

The US trade deficit (exports minus imports) has been getting smaller. Since a trade deficit subtracts from GDP growth, a shrinking deficit will, other things being equal, produce a bigger, faster-growing economy (that's the mainstream take).

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Clive_Maund

Many were talking about the market crashing last week and the mainstream financial press were waxing hysterical, but as we will now see the crash hasn't even started yet. If the press got like that last week, imagine what they will be like when it really does crash - last week was just a "warmup", the 2nd and final warning, the 1st warning was the plunge last August.

On the 10-year chart for the S&P500 index, we can see that while the market did indeed drop hard last week, it still has not broken down from its Head-and-Shoulders top, the lower boundary of which is shown by the thin black line. When it does break down from the top area, there is an awful lot of air below it - it has a long, long way to drop, and the decline is likely to be precipitous.