Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Is Stock Market “Short Volatility” Blow-Up Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The markets have changed and many are going to get “taken to the cleaners.”

Last year, 2017, was a not a normal year for stocks. Stocks as an asset class are not meant to go straight up without even a 1% pullback. But that is precisely what happened for nearly an entire year.

Now that massive market rig is over. And anyone who continues to invest as though it’s 2017 is going to get annihilated in the coming weeks. The only thing that stop an all out crash in stocks was clear and obvious intervention in the markets by Central Banks.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stock Market Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is “letting the stock market go.”

As I’ve outlined multiple times, if the Fed has to choose between supporting the bond bubble or supporting stocks, it will choose bonds Every. Single. Time.

The fact is that in a debt-saturated world such as the one we live in today, if stocks collapse, investors and Wall Street get angry. If bonds collapse, entire countries go bust.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Understanding Crude Oil Behavior / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Monday, oil bulls extended gains after Friday's invalidation of the breakout, which together with the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator suggest further improvement. A least at the first sight. But does watching the room through the keyhole give us a full picture of what's inside? We also think so, therefore, we invite you to analyze a broader picture of crude oil.

Let’s analyze the charts below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Stock Market is Getting Scary... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Today was a bit of frustration. The SPX wouldn’t go down, but it didn’t go higher, either. Tomorrow appears to be gearing up for a big down day. Wave relationships suggest that possibly both the Head & Shoulders and Broadening Wedge targets may be reached in the next two days. Do the math. That’s approximately a 20% decline from here.

Mike (Mish) Shedlock comments, “Interbank lending took a historic dive. Readers ask "What's happening?" Let's investigate.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Axel_Merk

“Don’t panic, buy the dip, who cares?” or “These are rumblings of an earthquake, people will be hurt like in 1929” - which one is it? I would call it a wake-up call. Let me explain:

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Gold Key Change That Nobody Talks About / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, everyone focused on the stock market sell-off. Reasonably enough, given the pace of the declines. But the analysts failed to pay enough attention to the very important shift. That change may be more important than Trump’s victory in the presidential election. Will the critical switch make gold shine – or dull?

Three Important Legacies of Yellen’s Fed Tenure

A crucial change is behind us. Powell is the new boss. Yellen is out. For better or worse, she doesn’t serve as the Fed Chair any longer. Although economists rated Yellen’s tenure very highly, President Trump didn’t renominate her for the position. Rightly or not? We don’t care. Let journalists debate endlessly – we will analyze the crucial Yellen’s imprints on the Fed, which could affect the gold market in the future.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

SPX Futures Are Sliding... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are sliding as the decline begins to take hold again. SPX retraced 71.7% of Wave 1, mainly due to the stop hunt that was done to wipe out the shorts. This constitutes a near 50% retracement of the entire decline. Most Elliotticians are still looking for a 61.8% retracement, as they believe that Wave (1) had concluded on Friday.

The reason w only got a 53.5% retracement on Wave (1) is because virtually no one was short until the 50-day Moving Average was crossed. Thus we see this rebound making the 61.8% retrace, as more traders were willing to go short, but with stops.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years. An explosion of volatility normally is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic  and has been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle.  The trading over the past 7 market sessions fit a classic pattern of market panic which corrects  the excesses of a market which just completed an upside climax and had been without correction for close to two years.  I believe this panic is now over and the muscle memory of buy the dip will now reassert itself.  That however does not mean good times will continue as the froth has now been blown off of the bubble.

Anecdotal signs of a market top have been flashing loud and clear now for the past 6 months. Since last summer the public has finally embraced this market and over the last 3 months have been recklessly plunging head long into it. Complacency reigns supreme so that after last Friday’s 666 point drop even the superstitious remained complacent.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

UK Savings Interest Rate Rises Brighten 2018, But Inflation Bites / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

Savers have had a more encouraging start to 2018, with rate rises galore and growing expectations of consecutive base rate rises throughout the year. Not only this, but with the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) coming to a close this month, savers will be expecting the market to recover, rather than worsen.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

GOP Adopts Democrat Big Deficit Spending / Politics / US Politics

By: BATR

If you ever had doubts that the Federal Government experiment has failed, the bipartisan busting of the budget has made it clear that Congress abdicates their sacred duty to defend the nation from internal enemies of the people. Forget the preposterousness argument that the United States must have the most expensive military to expand the evil empire that has been built up since the end of World War II. Real national defense starts at our own water's edge and needs to relinquish any absurd notion that our own safety is enhanced by having deployments to every corner of the globe. As long as the State Department expands their interventionism, diplomacy is scarified upon the alter of continuous military bombing. Eliminating the restrains of sequesters to tamp down the size and intrusions of gun boat intimidation are a step backward. Actual national defense is diminished by the garrison bases located far from our own homeland.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Yesterday we shared with you Part I – big picture analysis “math” Behind the recent sell-off. Today, we want to show you the what the math is pointing to in the short term and what to expect next.

For this type of analysis, we are going to use the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system that attempts to tear apart price and technical data from within a chart and reconstruct future price data by learning from the past.  In these examples, we will focus on Weekly and Monthly data going forward about 25 periods.  The intent is to clearly illustrate how our earlier analysis (completed near the end of December 2017) is still aligning with our current analysis.  Amazing how these things all plug together like a big puzzle when you think about it.

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Gold Stocks Groundhog Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

The physical metals will continue to outperform mining shares until there is some stabilization in the global arena, posits precious metals expert Michael Ballanger.

In the "I hate to say I-told-you-so" category, it looks like the Punxsutawney Phil came out of his den last week, took one look at the state of the global stock markets, and decided to go back to bed for six years. One short week after I posted "Never Underestimate the Replacement Power of Equities Within a (HYPER) Inflationary Spiral," complete with a chart with five smiling faces of those that would be responsible for "Dow 25,800," we have lost a very quick 2,000 Dow points and 105 for the S&P 500. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) has moved from around 9 to nearly 50 and the UVXY [Proshares Trust Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF] ("the divorcee-maker" since 2009) went from $8.52 topping over $30 on Monday.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Bitcoin: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be / Economics / Bitcoin

By: EconMatters

Bitcoin had rocketed from $900 to almost $20,000 in 2017.  We discussed why Bitcoin is a really bad investment for any investors and how 20% of Bitcoin owners took out debt in this get-rich-quick gamble.

It could all work out for everyone involved if Bitcoin were to continue its run towards $25,000 or even $60,000 according to some overly zealous predictions.  The problem is Bitcoin has crashed to around $8,600 as I write this post today.  Central banks like PBOC are moving to tighten oversight of bitcoin exchanges.  Banks have banned purchasing bitcoins using their credit cards.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Reckless Deficit Spending by Congress Set to Wreck the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

U.S. equities got a free ride on the Trump train after his election, even as Federal Reserve officials hiked interest rates. That ride may have ended last week.

If commentators are correct and the blame for recent selling in the stock market falls on the burgeoning fear of rising interest rates, it looks like Fed tightening is finally having the effect many predicted when the cycle began.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year / Commodities / Platinum

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and even authored a book in 2006 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market, and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. He is a highly sought after presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a regular guest on financial shows around the world, and it's great to have him back here on the Money Metals Podcast.

Greg, it's nice to talk to you again, and thanks for coming on.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Gold Mining Stocks Have Been The Most Frustrating Trade For The Last Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. But, after last week’s break down below the December 2017 low, the set up will have to be resurrected first in the coming months.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

S&P 500 index gained 1.5% on Thursday, as it retraced some of its recent sell-off, following Wednesday's downward reversal. The broad stock market traded the lowest since early October, before bouncing off from around 2,530. Is this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.4-1.5% on Friday following bouncing off new short-term lows, as investors' sentiment improved in the second half of the trading session. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the early October. It traded 11.8% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87 (-340.2 points). Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% on Friday.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Number of UK Interest Rate Tracker Mortgage Products Lowest in Nine Years / Housing-Market / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data (not yet published) reveals that after the Bank of England’s Base Rate rise in November, the number of tracker rate products has fallen to the lowest number since September 2009

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Abalgorithm

The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.