Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Plunger
Volatility has now returned to the stock market after a hibernation of several years. An explosion of volatility normally is indicative of a change of trend. The recent signals transmitted by this market have been classic and has been telling us that we have entered the final topping process of this extended and stretched economic cycle. The trading over the past 7 market sessions fit a classic pattern of market panic which corrects the excesses of a market which just completed an upside climax and had been without correction for close to two years. I believe this panic is now over and the muscle memory of buy the dip will now reassert itself. That however does not mean good times will continue as the froth has now been blown off of the bubble.
Anecdotal signs of a market top have been flashing loud and clear now for the past 6 months. Since last summer the public has finally embraced this market and over the last 3 months have been recklessly plunging head long into it. Complacency reigns supreme so that after last Friday’s 666 point drop even the superstitious remained complacent.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
UK Savings Interest Rate Rises Brighten 2018, But Inflation Bites / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Savers have had a more encouraging start to 2018, with rate rises galore and growing expectations of consecutive base rate rises throughout the year. Not only this, but with the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) coming to a close this month, savers will be expecting the market to recover, rather than worsen.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
GOP Adopts Democrat Big Deficit Spending / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
If you ever had doubts that the Federal Government experiment has failed, the bipartisan busting of the budget has made it clear that Congress abdicates their sacred duty to defend the nation from internal enemies of the people. Forget the preposterousness argument that the United States must have the most expensive military to expand the evil empire that has been built up since the end of World War II. Real national defense starts at our own water's edge and needs to relinquish any absurd notion that our own safety is enhanced by having deployments to every corner of the globe. As long as the State Department expands their interventionism, diplomacy is scarified upon the alter of continuous military bombing. Eliminating the restrains of sequesters to tamp down the size and intrusions of gun boat intimidation are a step backward. Actual national defense is diminished by the garrison bases located far from our own homeland.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Yesterday we shared with you Part I – big picture analysis “math” Behind the recent sell-off. Today, we want to show you the what the math is pointing to in the short term and what to expect next.
For this type of analysis, we are going to use the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system that attempts to tear apart price and technical data from within a chart and reconstruct future price data by learning from the past. In these examples, we will focus on Weekly and Monthly data going forward about 25 periods. The intent is to clearly illustrate how our earlier analysis (completed near the end of December 2017) is still aligning with our current analysis. Amazing how these things all plug together like a big puzzle when you think about it.
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Gold Stocks Groundhog Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
The physical metals will continue to outperform mining shares until there is some stabilization in the global arena, posits precious metals expert Michael Ballanger.
In the "I hate to say I-told-you-so" category, it looks like the Punxsutawney Phil came out of his den last week, took one look at the state of the global stock markets, and decided to go back to bed for six years. One short week after I posted "Never Underestimate the Replacement Power of Equities Within a (HYPER) Inflationary Spiral," complete with a chart with five smiling faces of those that would be responsible for "Dow 25,800," we have lost a very quick 2,000 Dow points and 105 for the S&P 500. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) has moved from around 9 to nearly 50 and the UVXY [Proshares Trust Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF] ("the divorcee-maker" since 2009) went from $8.52 topping over $30 on Monday.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Bitcoin: Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender Be / Economics / Bitcoin
By: EconMatters
Bitcoin had rocketed from $900 to almost $20,000 in 2017. We discussed why Bitcoin is a really bad investment for any investors and how 20% of Bitcoin owners took out debt in this get-rich-quick gamble.
It could all work out for everyone involved if Bitcoin were to continue its run towards $25,000 or even $60,000 according to some overly zealous predictions. The problem is Bitcoin has crashed to around $8,600 as I write this post today. Central banks like PBOC are moving to tighten oversight of bitcoin exchanges. Banks have banned purchasing bitcoins using their credit cards.
Monday, February 12, 2018
Reckless Deficit Spending by Congress Set to Wreck the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
U.S. equities got a free ride on the Trump train after his election, even as Federal Reserve officials hiked interest rates. That ride may have ended last week.
If commentators are correct and the blame for recent selling in the stock market falls on the burgeoning fear of rising interest rates, it looks like Fed tightening is finally having the effect many predicted when the cycle began.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year / Commodities / Platinum
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and even authored a book in 2006 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market, and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. He is a highly sought after presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a regular guest on financial shows around the world, and it's great to have him back here on the Money Metals Podcast.
Greg, it's nice to talk to you again, and thanks for coming on.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Gold Mining Stocks Have Been The Most Frustrating Trade For The Last Year / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), which I analyze as a proxy for the metals mining market. I believe that the GDX can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. But, after last week’s break down below the December 2017 low, the set up will have to be resurrected first in the coming months.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 index gained 1.5% on Thursday, as it retraced some of its recent sell-off, following Wednesday's downward reversal. The broad stock market traded the lowest since early October, before bouncing off from around 2,530. Is this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction? It's hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.4-1.5% on Friday following bouncing off new short-term lows, as investors' sentiment improved in the second half of the trading session. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the early October. It traded 11.8% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87 (-340.2 points). Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% on Friday.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Number of UK Interest Rate Tracker Mortgage Products Lowest in Nine Years / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data (not yet published) reveals that after the Bank of England’s Base Rate rise in November, the number of tracker rate products has fallen to the lowest number since September 2009
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Monday, February 12, 2018
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Abalgorithm
The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.
Monday, February 12, 2018
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve received many comments and questions from our members over the past few days regarding the recent US market crisis asking what to expect next. Is this the start of something bigger? Deeper? What should I do with my open long positions? What should I do to prepare for anything in the future? All of these are valid questions. So, we wanted to help our members and all of our followers by showing what we believe will be the most likely price action going forward a few weeks out.
The recent downside moves in the US majors did freak a lot of people out. It was something that startled people and pushed a panic button for many. Certainly, the rotation in the VIX and volatility related ETN’s pushed many people over the edge. In fact, recent news is that these volatility related ETN’s exasperated the selloff as the VIX shorts were pushed out of positions and into a protectionist mode with the massive spike in volatility. As the old floor trader saying goes “want to know what causes the markets to crash? Buyers that turn into sellers to protect from unwanted losses”.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
How To Profit From The Bitcoin Bloodbath / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, February 12, 2018
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Dan_Steinbock
If the government’s focus remains on inclusive economic development, the Philippines could become a bright spot in the global landscape.Today, there is a huge gap between the Philippines as it is portrayed by many international observers and the country’s fundamental economic realities.
The Duterte win was the triumph of ordinary Filipinos. Accordingly, there is only one way for the government to succeed. It must deliver the country’s economic promise.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – An intermediate correction from 2872 is currently underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It was a rough week for investors in stocks and stocks of all kinds. The S&P 500 lost 5%. Emerging Markets also lost 5%. Gold Stocks, which had weakened before the broader equity market have been hit hard. They (GDX, GDXJ) also lost 5% last week. The HUI Gold Bugs Index (which excludes royalty companies unlike GDX) lost 7%. After a strong start to the year, gold stocks have essentially given back all their gains. Nevertheless, we remain extremely optimistic on gold stocks over the next 12-18 months as trends in the economy and stock market should begin to support Gold after the second quarter.
Monday, February 12, 2018
Addicted to SMIGGLE Mega Review, Pencil Cases, Stationary, Back Packs, Drinking Bottles, Toys... / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
Here's addicted to all things SMIGGLE Anika's MEGA Review of virtually everything she has bought from SMIGGLE during the past 2 years, pencil cases, water bottles, back pack, puzzles, springs, toys, and of course loads, and loads of pens, pencils, erasers and other stationary items. And you WILL be SHOCKED to see from this pile of SMIGGLE stuff what she actually now takes to school each day!
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the financial year draws to a close, many ISA savers will be busy seeking to capitalise on their 20k annual tax free ISA savings allowance, buoyed by mainstream financial press coverage as apparently UK interest rates are heading much higher which includes for savers as well as borrowers as the Bank of England is expected to continue hiking UK base rates and withdraw some of its support for Britain's banking sector such as the funding for lending scheme that has resulted in a catastrophic downwards death spiral in UK savings interest rates for the past 5 years. Resulting in savers literally being ripped off by the tax payer bailed out banking sector that for the duration have continued to bank bonuses on the basis of artificial profits engineered by the Bank of England in an attempt at recapitalisng the bankrupt banks all whilst the savers continue to suffer and pay the price in terms of loss of real terms purchasing power of savings as inflation continues to erode the heard earned wealth of savers.
Sunday, February 11, 2018
Math Behind Last Weeks Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After surviving one of the biggest market rotations in the last 3+ years, we have been getting quite a bit of request for a detailed analysis of this move and asked what our specialized modeling systems are telling us is likely to happen. Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has put together this short reference of “the math behind the move” that will show you what is happening and the underlying price mechanics that are going to be driving prices in the future.