Sunday, February 11, 2018
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Rubino
Critics of “New Age” monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three reasons to wonder if that time has finally come:
Wage inflation is accelerating
Normally, towards the end of a cycle companies have trouble finding enough workers to keep up with their rising sales. So they start paying new hires more generously. This ignites “wage inflation,” which is one of the signals central banks use to decide when to start raising interest rates. The following chart shows a big jump in wages in the second half of 2017. And that’s before all those $1,000 bonuses that companies have lately been handing out in response to lower corporate taxes. So it’s a safe bet that wage inflation will accelerate during the first half of 2018.
Sunday, February 11, 2018
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
US Stock Market
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX nearly did a 100% retracement to the August 2015 high as suggested last week. This week it pulled back to test the Cycle Top support/resistance at 22.31. It appears to have yet another surge higher in store for it. The Cycles Model has a triple indicator of a higher Wave (3) top in the next week.
(ZeroHedge Less than a month ago, Goldman Sachs presciently published a note research report "VIX ETPs are now net short vega - should we worry".
.... which as the title suggested showed that the net position of VIX ETPs has become short over the past few weeks, for only the second time in their eight year history.
Sunday, February 11, 2018
How to Grow Tomatoes From Seeds, Homegrown Organic Money Saving Gardening / Personal_Finance / Gardening
By: Sami_Walayat
Now (Mid February) is the right time of year to get started growing your own vegetables of which given the high shop prices tomatoes should be at the top of ones list. In this comprehensive guide, Sami shows literally how anyone, even a child can easily grow hundreds of tomatoes indoors in a small pot from seed germination, to planting, to hand pollination, to pruning and then enjoying the fruits for a whole years worth of money saving crops of healthy freshly organically grown home tomatoes, good for your financial and physical health as well as delivering a lot of self satisfaction
Sunday, February 11, 2018
Youtube KILLS ALL Small Channels with New DeMonetization Rules / Companies / Google
By: N_Walayat
YouTube has effectively told all small youtubers to get lost, as from the 20th of February it will be demonetizing MOST Youtube channels, as most channels are small, either sub 1000 subscribers or sub 4000 view hours per year. Now I am sure all small youtubers out there would agree that it was never about the money, for most are unlikely to be receiving more than $20 per month in revenue, which won't even pay for a weeks coffee. So it was never about the money but about being recognised as being a Youtube partner, instead now Youtube is telling small youtubers that Youtube does not want you !
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
Lot of Stock Market Damage to Be Caused before New the Fed Chief Will React / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on news outlets throughout the world, and it's great to have him back on with us.
Axel, it's a real pleasure to speak with you again, and thanks for joining us.
Axel Merk: Oh, it's good to be with you.
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
Best Ways to Make Money / Companies / SME
By: Kavinesh_A
Most people would say that they need more money. This is a belief that stems from the fact that we’re never going to feel fully financially secure no matter how much money we may have. So, we can always feel a bit safer about our finances if we know how to make some extra money. Well, below you will find some great ways in which you can make money on your own.
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
Financial Markets Bubble Watching / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, explain why they believe financial markets have generated the biggest bubble in history.
As we have noted here before, we believe that financial markets have generated the biggest bubble in history. There are many supporting facts for this view, from extreme measures of market sentiment to prolonged record low volatility, unprecedented low interest rates, record levels of leverage and historic over-valuation.
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
Never Give Up Your Short Position in a Stocks Bear Market.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This morning’s action in the SPX was both fascinating and informative. I had suggested a bounce that might go to the Cycle Bottom resistance at 2627.12. It didn’t even make it. Wave [a] went to 2619.47, then reversed down to make a new low at 2563.49 in Wave [b]. Wave [c] was stopped close to the neckline, which I had also mentioned as another resistance point. In my opinion, that validates the Head & Shoulders formation as is. This is called an irregular correction, but since Wave [c] is barely visible, it may be referred to as a “running correction.”
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Stock Market Selling Unleashed! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The unnaturally-tranquil stock markets suddenly plunged over this past week. Volatility skyrocketed out of the blue and shattered years of artificial calm conjured by extreme central-bank distortions. This was a huge shock to the legions of hyper-complacent traders, who are realizing stocks don’t rally forever. With stock selling unleashed again, herd psychology will start shifting back to bearish which will fuel lots more selling.
As a contrarian student of the markets, I watched stocks’ recent mania-blowoff surge in stunned disbelief. On fundamental, technical, and sentimental fronts, the stock markets were as or more extreme than their last major bull-market toppings in March 2000 and October 2007! I outlined all this in an essay on these hyper-risky stock markets on 2017’s final trading day. The ominous writing was on the wall for all willing to see.
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
How to Get Free Youtube Subscribers to Get to 1000, YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow, Do they Work? / ConsumerWatch / Google
By: N_Walayat
Youtube delivered a bombshell to small youtube channels on the 20th of January, mainly all those with less than 1000 subscribers, who by the 20th of February will be ejected from the Youtube partner programme that amongst several benefits included monetization of videos which in most cases for Youtubers resulted in a token return of typically about $10 per month. So the blow for being ejected from the youtube partner programme is not financial but rather Youtube effectively telling its smaller youtubers to get lost, a your not wanted message as effectively Youtube is now no longer YOUtube, but instead it's Celebtube or Adtube, really just another broadcast channel full of commercialised content full of ads and NOT what YOUtube has been for the past 10 years!
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Stock Market Buy or Sell? This Insight May Help You Decide / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
It’s a tough decision. We’d like to help by showing you some unconventional market evidence.
By February of this year, investors had almost forgotten what stock market volatility looked like.
And then something unprecedented happened. On Monday, Feb. 5, the DJIA closed 1,175 points down, the biggest single-day drop in the index's history. Since then, stocks have been going haywire.
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Stock Market Technical Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Christopher_Quigley
This week’s “flash crash” has inflicted some technical “damage” on the market but nothing too serious, for the moment. However, some caution is warranted.
To gauge where the markets go from here I believe it important to focus on how the Dow Transport Index behaves, as it is the weaker of the two main Dow Indices. (As was the case in 1998 and 1999, just before the tech crash of 2000). Currently it is trying to consolidate around its 100 Daily Moving Average but I suspect new lows will be tested before too long. Remember technical analysis 101: “when significant moving averages become points of resistance rather than points of support you are in a bearish trend.”
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Mars and Mercury Decide the Fate of the U.S. Dollar and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. dollar has been bleeding recently, despite all the Fed’s tightening efforts and the passage of Trump’s tax cuts. An accelerating economy, rising interest rates and pro-growth reforms should logically drive the value of the American currency. But they didn’t.
Given the strong negative correlation between the greenback and gold, finding the cause behind the dollar’s wounds is highly critical. The most common explanation among analysts is Trump the Destroyer. It shouldn’t be surprising, as the U.S. President is known for his passion for trade protectionism. He also explicitly favors the weak currency to help the exporters. So maybe Trump just got what he wanted?
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Wells Fargo WFC Remains Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) is the world’s second-largest bank by market capitalization and the third largest bank in the U.S. by assets.
Last week, the Bank was fined $185M by the FED for ‘widespread illegal practices’ because of the recent fake accounts scandal and it was banned from growing until it convinces authorities it’s addressing shortcomings.
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market like a roller coaster rockets higher one day only to plunge lower the next. That is what this week has been like, a roller coaster ride. Starting the week with a Monday late session 1175 point plunge, bouncing Tuesday by 570 points to 24,912. Taking a breather on Wednesday by closing steady at 24,893, then plunged once more yesterday (Thursday) by over 1000 points, closing at 23,860, with the Dow now down over 10% from its 2018 high.
Friday, February 09, 2018
What Is Stock Market Volatility Telling Us Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
In my last article, ‘Plunge Protection Team Spotted Atop Mt. Everest’ - 02/02/18, I warned readers that the Plunge Protection Team was again active. I posted the article on my blog www.bmfinvest.blogspot.com. This article was published as well on the site www.marketoracle.co.uk and almost nowhere else. Let me say ‘kudos’ to the marketoracle.co.uk publisher Nadeem Walayat for not only having the guts to publish the truth but also the expertise to understand what is happening. I start everyday with a thorough reading of the articles published on marketoracle.co.uk as it is one of the few sites where writers like myself are given a forum. Almost all the other supposed ‘investment’ sites are filled with powder puff CNBC kind of stuff. I can assure readers that if they are not reading articles posted on marketoracle.co.uk, they are not getting a complete idea of important information.
Friday, February 09, 2018
Remember When Stocks Only Went Up? / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: John_Rubino
Long ago in a distant galaxy called “2017,” stock prices rose every day. And the people were happy. With paper profits in hand they maxed out their credit cards and bank lines to buy flat-screen TVs and cars and cover their student loans.
Then one day a darkness began to spread. Stocks began to move in an unfamiliar way that felt profoundly wrong. They went “down” instead of up, and paper profits began to shrink. The people consulted their price charts and were confused to find them written in an unfamiliar language full of oddly sloped lines and negative numbers.
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Banks Ban Bitcoin Purchases Using Credit Cards / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EconMatters
Bitcoin was at $15,000 when I wrote this post before Christmas warning against getting involved in the bitcoin or any cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has crashed to $8,000 today losing about 50% of its value in two months.
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Friday, February 09, 2018
Crude Oil $100 Price in 2019? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The stock market is a dangerous place to be right now. Watching VIX spiked from 17 to 50+ then crashing back to 30 within two days can certainly cause a cardiac arrest or two. What’s even worse is that investors took this little dip as a buying opportunity throwing more good money at this deformed market. On Tuesday U.S. stocks rebounded to post the biggest rally in 15 months. We have discussed many times that stocks have a long way to go before any normalcy may be restored. On that note, let’s move to the oil/gasoline market instead.