Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 17, 2020
AI Fibonacci Modeling Predicts Silver at $26 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system incorporates an intelligent “Inference Engine” into internal decision-making and future analysis. This type of “Adaptive Learning” is one of the core elements of Artificial Intelligence – the ability to read inputs, adapting to price structures and setups and infer expected outcomes/results based on a complex decision-making process. Today, we are alerting you that our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting $26 is the next target level for Silver (which is currently trading near $15.65).
Learning how to interpret the data presented by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is simple – it does the internal analysis automatically and presents future target levels and trigger levels on the charts as lines and blocks. Trigger levels are set up as both GREEN and RED lines for current Bullish and Bearish Trends. Each of these trends also has target BLOCKS drawn out into the future representing where the Adaptive Fibonacci system believes the next price target will be located. These target levels are determined by the Adaptive Learning Inference Engine and represent the best outcome of the true Fibonacci price structure we can deliver.
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Thursday, April 16, 2020
3 Top Oil Stocks to Buy Right Now / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Due to several recent events, including a price war initiated by Russia, the price of oil has declined to record-low levels these past couple of weeks. Subsequently, the price decline resulted in a massive worldwide panic which pushed the price down even further.While the panic might reasonable and based on a real fear of what the situation might lead to, there are still ways that investors can protect their funds. And for those willing to risk a little extra, some investments could even pay off in the short run, especially when investing in stable oil stocks.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020
Gold Price Near March Highs and Ready to Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Submissions
Recent shifts in the markets suggest gold prices are about to breakout in the same manner as they did over the summer last year.
The price of gold is a small distance away from the March highs ahead of the North American open on Monday and a fresh seven-year high looks to be probable.
Many factors impact the price of gold but there are few specific things that I am looking at that lead me to believe gold prices are about to break out.
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Saturday, April 11, 2020
Global Shutdown and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos. This what we are observing right now – the only difference is that Atlas has not shrugged but got infected. But the result is the same. The economy freezes. We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out what does the global shutdown implies for the global economy and the gold market!
Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. They disappear, leaving their businesses to their fate. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos.
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Saturday, April 11, 2020
A ‘Good’ Thursday as Gold Stocks Show the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lock down”.
It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.
But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:
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Friday, April 10, 2020
Gold and Understanding the Current Investment Reality / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
Gold has been misunderstood and ignored by retail investors, financial advisors and pension managers as a critical portfolio asset during normal market conditions. However, during periods of market stress, such as we are experiencing now, gold becomes a safe haven asset that will mitigate losses in the portfolio. For a number of years, many experts have been warning about overinflated markets that were just waiting for a spark to ignite the entire system.
I warned investors that we were in a triple bubble in stocks, bonds and real estate that was created by central bank policies. Although I concluded that a market crash was inevitable, I didn’t foresee that the spark to ignite all three bubbles would be the Coronavirus. While the virus itself is life threatening and will result in large demographic changes across the globe, the economic implications may be worse than the disease. Major economies in Europe, Canada and the United States have been shut down. Every industry—airlines, hotels, manufacturing, entertainment, sports, schools and retail—is in lockdown. Most of the western world is ravaged by fear, isolation, loss of employment, loss of income and the psychological effect of this massive lockdown situation. Employees have either been terminated or laid off indefinitely. The scale of this unemployment crunch and financial crisis is beyond the reach of governments’ assistance. Many businesses will not be able to reopen once the health issues have been controlled.
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Friday, April 10, 2020
A Rare Bottoming Pattern on the HUI Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Back at the 2008 crash low in the HUI there was a reversal pattern, that is pretty rare, which helped confirm that very important low. If you ever wondered what the 2007 – 2008 top looked like and the decline that followed to the 2008 crash low this daily chart for the HUI paints the Chartology I posted at the tent, in real time, as the impulse move to the downside took place.
The 2007 – 2008 H&S top was actually a double H&S top which ended the first 8 years of the bull market that began in 2000. Even though that is a beautiful H&S top no one wanted to believe it could be possible when I first began to post the possibility of what the implications were. At the time I viewed the H&S top as a normal H&S reversal pattern but I had no idea it would lead to the crash it did. Even during the crash of that magnitude the Chartology was about as good as it can get.
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Friday, April 10, 2020
Expectations For Higher Gold Prices – Fly In The Ointment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
From Wikipedia: “In English, the phrase fly in the ointment is an idiomatic expression for a drawback, especially one that was not at first apparent, e.g.
We had a cookstove, beans, and plates; the fly in the ointment was the lack of a can opener.”
For four centuries, ‘a fly in the ointment’ has meant a small defect that spoils something valuable or is a source of annoyance. The modern version thus suggests that something unpleasant may come or has come to light in a proposition or condition that is almost too pleasing; that there is something wrong hidden, unexpected somewhere.”
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Thursday, April 09, 2020
Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).
The percentage arrived at by dividing the country’s total GDP by its total debt indicates the country’s ability to pay back its loans. The higher the percentage, the higher the risk of a country being unable to pay the interest on its debt, and therefore defaulting on its debt. (countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios typically have trouble paying off debts. Because they are a higher risk to paying loans back, creditors demand higher interest rates. If a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio becomes too extravagant, creditors may stop lending to it altogether)
While debt defaults are rare, they can and do happen. In 2010 the European Union faced a crisis when Greece threatened to default, potentially causing a domino effect, of highly leveraged nations like Spain and Italy doing the same, which likely would have destroyed the European Union.
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Thursday, April 09, 2020
Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
With his portfolio "solidly anchored" in silver and gold, sector expert Michael Ballanger opines on how bankers and politicians can manipulate markets.
As a child, I used to get quite excited at the prospect of having my English "Gran" read me the Hans Christian Andersen book "The Emperor's New Clothes." I found the tale fiendishly amusing, as the charlatan tailor uses lethal doses of flattery and mystery to beguile the poor sovereign into really believing that he is wearing the finest robes ever woven. There is even greater irony in the crowds he passes during a parade as they "Oooh" and "Awww" at his comic preening, knowing full well that he is making a fool of himself but too fearful to do anything but play along. The ending is sublime, with the ultimate moment of reckoning coming "from the mouths of babes," in the form of a young lad who finally blows the whistle with the innocent but true acknowledgement that, indeed, the emperor was parading pitifully through the town square clad only in his knickers.
I think that I admired and, in fact, envied the scallywag tailor in a manner not dissimilar to the way I am awed by this recent bevy of bankers and politicians. They stand in front of the cameras with their carnival barker bravado and serpentine smiles as they lift trillions of dollars from the future wallets of the taxpaying public and distribute it shamelessly among their capitalist cronies.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2020
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price). Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders. The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.
For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias. A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2020
All Is Not Well in the Gold Paper Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) officials have loudly proclaimed there are plenty of gold bars in LBMA and COMEX vaults to meet surging demand from buyers.
Unfortunately for them, confidence is particularly fragile these days and cracks are starting to appear.
Which is why anxious officials there issued not one, but two memos last week in an attempt to reassure traders.
It’s interesting the LBMA, along with the COMEX, felt a need to put out back to back statements. If inventories are plentiful, both exchanges should be busy delivering gold, on time and without delay. The best way to build confidence is simply to meet buyers’ expectations.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2020
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Gold and the dollar certainly move not in a random relation to each other. The strength and direction of one taking the cue from the other changes over time, but what does it tell us about the present moment?
The key point with regard to the US currency is that it appears to have already ended its pullback and is now ready to soar well above its previous 2020 high.
How do we know that the pullback is most likely over?
Because the USD Index already rallied for (actually more than) two consecutive trading days.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
For years, many Gold Bugs (investors who’ve been advocating buying Gold and Silver at low prices as a hedge against future global economic risks) were shunned as conspiracy theorists and nuts. How could these people believe Gold and Silver were solid investments when the Global equities markets were rallying 5% a year consistently – what could go wrong?
Over the past two weeks, I have personally received multiple phone calls and emails from friends and associates asking how these people can suddenly ”buy physical metals”. In one case, this individual was purchasing Airline and Food Services stocks in late February thinking this move would be short-lived and telling me how the airlines would recover quickly after this is all over. Now, that person wants to know my secret contacts for buying physical metals.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The coronavirus wasn't the cause of oil's 70% collapse. This was
Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.
Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.
Having said that, sentiment indicators are also valuable in providing clues about "what's next."
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
A surge in coronavirus cases, an expansion of economic lockdowns, and an explosion in unemployment claims hit markets this week. But this deluge of bad news didn’t seem to catch investors by surprise.
Instead of crashing to new lows, the stock market held within a trading range and rallied yesterday following the release of a horrific jobs report.
It’s been a huge week for commodity markets as oil prices posted their biggest single day percentage gain ever Thursday, popping more than 25%. Oil prices lifted from their severely depressed $20 per barrel level after President Donald Trump met with oil executives and announced Russia and Saudi Arabia would agree to curtail production.
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Monday, April 06, 2020
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce. That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg. The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.
Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders. If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going. Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading. Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often. Carpe diem!
The leading and most-popular gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It was the first gold-stock ETF launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead. GDX’s $10.2b in net assets this week were running 34.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX’s recent raging action reveals what just transpired.
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Saturday, April 04, 2020
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, the US scored a sad record. The number of deaths related to the coronavirus in the US surpassed the death toll in China. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?
US Epidemiological Situation Is Grim
Just as people were overly optimistic before the stock market top, they can be too pessimistic right now. This is a real risk and we take it into account. However, the incoming data confirm our view expressed in the April edition of the Gold Market Overview that “the US will be severely hit” and that “the worst is yet ahead for the States”. Unfortunately, it turned out that we were right. On Monday, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States. So much for the claims that influenza is worse than coronavirus. The U.S. coronavirus-related deaths reached more than 4,000 deaths, which is behind only Italy and Spain! The US death toll has actually surpassed the number of deaths in China (much more populous country), as you can see in the chart below.
Friday, April 03, 2020
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Item: March 16, 2020. A huge poly-metallic (gold, silver, copper) mining operation in Mongolia "has suspended operations" after authorities "restricted the movement of goods and people within the country."
Item: March 17. In Peru, one of the world's largest primary silver-gold producers has its 4 mines "temporarily suspended" following the Government's Declared State of Emergency.
Item: March 18. A Canadian mining major suspends construction of a $4.7b copper mine upgrade in Chile affecting 15,000 workers.
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Thursday, April 02, 2020
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bearish in the short to medium term.
Whichever way you cut it, silver's chart looks bearish for the short to medium term, but against this we must set its rapidly improving COT structure and the mega-bullish silver to gold ratio (by all past standards).
Silver's 7-month chart is a rather grim picture. On it we see that key support failed this month, leading to a dramatic plunge to new lows, and this support has now become resistance. In addition we see that moving averages have swung into bearish alignment, with a bearish "death cross" having occurred about a week ago. The relief rally of the past week or so in sympathy with the relief rally in the broad stock market fueled by Fed intervention, that we predicted and played via leveraged silver ETFs and Calls, is therefore thought to be petering out and set to be followed by another probably steep selloff, congruent with another decline in the broad stock market, and a potentially heavy decline in the precious metals sector.
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