Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Gold, The Big Score / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Howard_Katz

Well, here we are with the price of gold above $1,000.  Since this is the day so many thought would never come, it is time for reflection.  I have lived my life in a society in which most of the “experts” have been wrong over and over.

I was a gold bug in 1970, when gold was $35/oz.  I turned bearish on gold Jan. 21, 1980, the day it hit its high of $875/oz.  I became a stock bug in 1982 with the DJI at 780.  Then I predicted Black Monday 1987.  I turned bullish on gold again at the end of 2002 with the metal at $325.  And I predicted a long term top in the stock market at the beginning of 2007.

Monday, September 21, 2009

The Quiet Grab for Global Natural Resources / Commodities / Resources Investing

By: Andy_Sutton

While all the hubbub here in the US has centered around abominations such as cash 4 clunkers, tax credits for buying homes, and the other machinations directed at returning the US to the blissful year of 2005, other portions of the world have taken notice and have been conducting some activities of their own. They have been locking down ever-growing stockpiles of critical basic materials needed to run their economies. These strategic moves have certainly not been done in secret, but given how we spend our intellectual energies here in America, they might as well have been. Leading the pack has been China, but there have certainly been others.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Australian Gold Stocks Exciting Performance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Neil_Charnock

It has been a very exciting few weeks in the Australian Gold Sector since we announced a fresh break out.  Before I go on I feel it is necessary to put this in context so I am providing a clear educational account of this event with perspective.  Within the big picture this recent gold share price rise is only a small part of a follow through rally which commenced in the October to November lows of 2008.  That period was in essence a “bear trap”. 

Monday, September 21, 2009

Gold Dips Back to $1,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Adrian_Ash

U.S. DOLLAR GOLD PRICES slipped further from last week's 18-month high at $1,024 an ounce early Monday, briefly dropping south of $1,000 as world stock markets also fell, losing almost 1% on average.

Crude oil sank to a one-week low near $70 per barrel, while the US Dollar bounced almost a cent against the Euro from last Thursday's 12-month lows.

Monday, September 21, 2009

IMF Gold Sales Hoovered up by Governments / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: GoldCore

As some strength returned to the beleaguered dollar overnight, the appetite for financial insurance in the form of gold waned slightly. Gold slipped as low as $995/oz in early morning trading but has rebounded to be currently trading just below $1000/oz. The news that the IMF are to sell over 400 tonnes of gold into the market was widely expected and therefore this news was largely priced in. Also, the sales will fall within the terms of the newly agreed Washington Agreement that limits central bank sales to 400T per year for the next five years.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Gold in a Beautiful Long-term Secular Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Adam_Brochert

The short and intermediate-term future for Gold and any investment for that matter are tricky to navigate. I have guessed right and wrong many times on shorter-term moves. It seems that the best most investors can hope to do is identify the long-term secular bull market (i.e. the major bull market of the current 10-20 year period) that is in progress, buy into it, and hold on.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

ETF Commodities Trading for GLD, SLV, UNG, USO / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodity ETF trading charts allow us to track and trade the underlying commodities with ease. I have provided a few daily charts to show were current commodity prices and chart pattern are at.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Gold and Silver Signs of a Top or Evidence of Strength? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

This week the price of gold hovered above the $1000 level and managed to close above this important level, a very significant and optimistic development for anyone interested in the precious metals sector. But before we launch into euphoria and speed away, now might be a good time to look back into our rearview mirror.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Gold Above $1,000, Is this Time Different? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Merv_Burak

Many speculators are getting all excited.  Gold, above $1000, gee – that must mean the sky is now the limit.  If only it was that easy.  Above $1000, we’ve been there before.  We’re there again.  Who knows, maybe THIS TIME things will be different.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Gold and U.S. Dollar Inverse Relationship Trend Implications / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Douglas_V._Gnazzo

Gold - Gold was up for the week, gaining $1.40, to close at $1007.60 (continuous contract). The daily chart shows gold still positively above its recent breakout. The trend remains in place until such time that it isn’t.

Some consolidation is warranted, and perhaps a test of the breakout. RSI is overbought and turning down. All in all the bulk of the evidence is bullish, although waning slightly.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

GOLD at the Croassroad, analysis with reference to U.S. Dollar and COT... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Clive_Maund

In this article we are going to review in a dispassionate manner what gold has and hasn’t achieved in recent weeks and make deductions about the outlook. September is by far the strongest month for gold on a seasonal basis and this year has been no exception. Early in the month it broke out of the large Symmetrical Triangle that had been forming for most of this year, an event which naturally led to wild enthusiasm amongst goldbugs and most of their cheerleaders and expectations by most of follow through to the $1300 area as a minimum objective. While it has since advanced to challenge its highs, and has succeeded in making a new closing high, it has not - yet - made a new all-time high by closing above its intraday highs of last year. Thus it has not yet overcome the resistance near its highs.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

IMF To Sell Gold…Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Mac_Slavo

For the third or fourth time in the last couple of years, the International Montery Fund has indicated that it will begin selling up to 400 tons of gold. While we’re not sure if the IMF will actually carry through this time, or if they are simply sending out press releases again now that gold is over $1000 an ounce in an effort to put pressure on the price, this seems to be the first time that the IMF has set a definitive date for the sales to begin. According the the IMF press release, the start date for gold sales is September 27, 2009. Under the agreement approved by the IMF, they can off load a total of 400 tons per year (they have roughly 3200 tons of gold available). In order for the IMF to be able to off load the gold, the US Congress would need to approve of the sale, which they did in June of 2009.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Shorting Gold GLD and Stocks SPY / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Mike_Paulenoff

We've had an interest in the long gold (GLD) and short SPY (SH) trades this week, where we gained several percentage points on the former and were flat the latter.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

All That Glitters is Not Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Bill_Bonner

Of all the many miseries that man faces on his journey from cradle to grave, few of them can be eased by enlightened central banking. And a credit contraction is not one of them. Japan proved it. After the Japanese market collapsed in 1990, public officials went to work with their characteristic energy and incompetence. They lowered the cost of borrowing to nearly zero. But did consumers take up the money and add to the demand for bread and bicycles? No. They didn’t want to borrow. They wanted to save. They had speculated during the previous bubble years and lost money. Then, with retirement approaching, a penny saved was worth even more to them than a penny earned. They saved more than ever…and the consumer economy sank.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Doomsday for the Natural Gas Market? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Joseph_Dancy

The bearish story for natural gas is becoming very well known. Lots of bearish natural gas analysts are around - rightfully so. With record levels of natural gas storage and weak industrial and generation demand spot prices have dropped to seven year lows (see chart, courtesy Bloomberg).

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Conditions for Global Gold Confiscation by Governments / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

As the sixth and final part of this series we now look at this question: "Is it possible to get a synthesis of world governments to override the attraction of gold??"

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Do We Have a Breakout in Gold or not ? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Bill_Downey

Medium Term Gold Technical Analysis - With gold's entry into triple digits for a second week, investors are asking themselves, is this it?  Is this the big one?  What price will confirm we're going much higher?  Will there be a pullback? 

For those who are not chart readers, consider this.  A doctor does not diagnose you by looking at you.  He tests and looks at his charts for results.  Based on those charts he determines how well you are.  

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Grand Supercycle Favors Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: The_Gold_Report

A serious student of equity market cycles and stock charts, market technician Clif Droke pulls no punches about the fact that the 120-year Grand Supercycle bodes ill as it approaches its end. Although his analyses of charts and cycles suggest some bright days on the near-term horizon, they also foretell depressing darkness by the middle of the next decade. Clif peppers this exclusive interview with The Gold Report with eye-opening and jaw-dropping insights—cut (thankfully!) with a note of caution that cycles aren't the only forces in play and some thoughts about how to take advantage of an impending "recoil rally" before we close out the "best recovery year in memory."

Friday, September 18, 2009

Gold GLD ETF Violates Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)’s violation this morning of support in the 99.20/00 area indicates that the high-level consolidation pattern between 100.00 and 99.00 has morphed into a deeper correction. The correction should press towards the 98.20 area, which represents the lower channel support line. Otherwise, the GLD needs to climb and sustain above 99.60/65 to neutralize the near-term negativity.

Friday, September 18, 2009

The Real Gold Price Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Adrian_Ash

Two charts and three measures of gold's "real" price today...

GOLD'S CURRENT price-tag of $1,000 an ounce suggests big doubts over the US Dollar, its domestic economy, and its status as the world's No.1 reserve currency.