Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Does Gold Rise or Fall During Deflation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Legally defining the official dollar/gold price and backing it with convertibility is the only means by which...the markets can be assured that Volcker's successors would not be tempted to try another monetarist experiment." - Jude Wanniski, former Reagan advisor, April 1982
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
How to Analyze Insider Selling in the Junior Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The junior mining sector has been performing much better in the last few months and we have seen many of the shares prices jump up substantially in price. Investors may be asking, ‘is it too late to buy or should we sell?’
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Gold and U.S. Dollar Trends Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold - Below is a weekly line chart of Gold. Each data point is the closing price on Friday. There are two main supports. The first is at about $880 where the 40-week and 80-week moving averages reside. Should that area break then look for a bottom close to $800. There is a lot of support filling in towards $800. My thinking is that the market will trade in similar fashion (triangle) to what we saw in 2005 and 2007. The bottom chart on the picture is the width of the 40-week bollinger bands.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s INflation or DEflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold doesn’t care if it’s inflation or deflation.
One of the central arguments for financial commentators right now is whether the US is currently facing inflation or deflation. Everyone (at least everyone with a functioning cortex) is aware that the US (and the rest of the world for that matter) will face more difficult times ahead. However, whether it will be an environment of increased inflation or increased deflation is up for debate.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Gold Jumps as ECB Front-Runs the Fed, Lends Near-Half Trillion Euros at 1.0% / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
THE PRICE O GOLD leapt overnight and early Wednesday, recovering all and more of this week's losses at $938 an ounce as world stock markets ticked higher but crude oil slipped for the second day running.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Silver Could Outperform Gold by 2:1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
David Morgan, whose interest in silver dates to the tender age of 11, returns to The Gold Report today to discuss the latest buzz about his favorite subject. One of the world's leading authorities on silver as a commodity, an investment, a safe haven and an increasingly important manufacturing metal, he expects this year's stronger-than-anticipated late spring climb to lose momentum before the end of the month. Longer term, though, the founder of the respected monthly, The Morgan Report, sees silver appreciating at a faster pace than gold. And while he also likes the idea of monetizing silver—rather than gold, because silver is far more liquid—that's one wish he does not expect to see granted.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
U.S. Approves IMF Gold Sales; What Does It Mean? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Last week the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill which included an expanded credit facility for the IMF and gave U.S. approval for the proposed IMF sale of 400 tons of gold.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
GOLD, A Case for the Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
The last year has seen some pretty dramatic falls in commodity prices but Gold actually managed to end 2008 as one of the best performing investments with a gain of about 5%. This was despite the fact that Gold normally rises inversely to the dollar and last year the dollar rose relentlessly, catching a lot of people off guard. This reinforced its reputation as a safe port when all around is chaos. This reputation has been garnered over 5,000 years, but during the boom stockmarket era of the 80s and 90s it lost a lot of its glitter as investors found better returns elsewhere.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Gold Bounces As Bernanke Stokes More Bubbles / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
THE PRICE OF WHOLESALE GOLD BULLION bounced off a new 5-week low at $914 per ounce early Tuesday in London after the US Dollar rose on the currency markets but the Japanese Yen rose faster still.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Russian Call for Special Drawing Rights Currencies Positve for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold:
Yesterday's comments by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the BRIC summit, calling upon the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to expand the currency basket of Special Drawing Rights to include the Chinese yuan, commodity currencies and gold in order that it matures into a reserve currency, is positive for gold as it shows how gold is again being viewed as an important monetary asset.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Gold Miner Fundamentals About to Improve / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
The cost of mining real money (i.e. Gold) out of the ground is about to decrease relative to the cost of Gold (again). Fundamentals DO NOT immediately translate into stock price changes, but they lay the groundwork for stock prices to change at some point in the future. I am intermediate-term bearish on senior Gold mining stocks, but will be looking to buy more once I think the current correction is over. The fundamentals are about to become even more supportive than they are already.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Future Inflation Fears Fuel Price of Gold Shares and Warrants / Commodities / Options & Warrants
The 2008 stock market meltdown brought panic and forced liquidation to all market sectors and especially junior resource shares (- 58.2% on average) and their associated warrants (-80.1%). Shares of companies that had a solid foundation for development, production and growth were unceremoniously dumped along with those more numerous juniors that had little more than hopes centered on grass roots exploration prospects. As a result of this indiscriminate selling – this throwing out the baby with the bath water – extraordinary opportunities have emerged creating once-in-a-lifetime values for discerning investors.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Is Gold a Buy or is it “Toppy”? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
A few weeks ago the gold rush was back on.
Inflation fears were rising. Yields on treasury bonds were rising. Gold was making another run at $1,000. Leading the headlines though and sparking the most interest was hedge fund manager John Paulson and his big bets on gold and gold stocks.
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Wild, Profitable Moves Coming; Update on China Economy / Commodities / Investing 2009
Larry Edelson writes: Could the economy get any worse? Could real estate prices continue to decline? Could Detroit take more hits? Could manufacturing and retail sales slump more?
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Silver and the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Things look like they are moving to some kind of resolution on where silver is headed. The main bellwether for where silver goes is not gold but the US Dollar. The two charts below of the US Dollar Index and silver for the same time periods show how these two asset classes are moving in opposite directions. First silver which has dropped about 15% in 19 days.
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Gold GLD ETF Upside Reversal Imminent / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Based on a textbook head-and-shoulders top pattern, the downside measured target in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is 89.50, which also happens to coincide with a test of the Jan-June up trendline, now at 89.20. If the last portion of this decline does unfold in textbook fashion, then we should be looking for an upside reversal (buy) signal in the upcoming hours – to initiate a potent upmove into the 93.50-94.00 area.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2009
The Real Crisis is Beginning to Unfold… and It’s Not Financial Pt. 1 / Commodities / Food Crisis
The real crisis is coming… and it’s coming fast.
Indeed, it started last year, almost entirely off the radar of the American public. While all eyes were glued to the carnage in the stock market and brokerage account balances, a far more serious crisis began to unfold rocking 30 countries around the globe.
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Gold Intermediate Buy Signal Triggered / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Perhaps we should establish an official day of mourning for the loss of independent thinking now so widespread among today’s journalists. In the U.S., independent journalism has died. Most of the reporting media has now become the official apparatchik of the Obama Regime. With one national network moving into the White House for daily supervision, all pretense of independence has been lost. We can probably, given access to the internet, learn to survive the death of journalism as a profession. However, our wealth may not survive the loss of an independent central bank. Since Federal Reserve actions are somewhat greater than a butterfly in Africa flapping its wings, the rest of the world may need to worry about yet to come financial chaos.
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Monday, June 22, 2009
GOLD Analysis and Trading Strategy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Here is my bi-weekly gold report in different currencies.
Gold spot price Analysis - Gold in USD (1 ounce = US$ 933.50)
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Gold Stocks Can Add Returns With No Extra Volatility / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Gold stocks are among the most volatile asset classes, but old and new research shows that their judicious use can enhance investor returns without adding portfolio risk.
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