Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 27, 2015
New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: GoldCore
- Greece warns may default on IMF loan next week
- Greek bank runs continue and deposits flee
- German Bundestag votes for bailout extension
- Syriza agree to a bailout extension of four months, in return for concessions yet to be approved by the EU
- Questions over Syriza negotiating a weak deal despite it’s strong position
- Greece and EU buying time to arrange orderly “Grexit”?
- Greece has printing presses poised to print newly designed Greek Drachmas
- Greeks buying gold bullion
Friday, February 27, 2015
Gold vs Gold Stocks: Bullish Anomaly Developing? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Jason_Hamlin
Over the past few months, mining stocks have returned to offering excellent leverage to the advance in prices for precious metals. Yet, during the recent pullback, the downside leverage has been absent. This is atypical behavior as mining stocks usually lead the metals and generate leveraged gains (or losses). This could be a bullish development, suggesting that investors in mining stocks believe they have the seen the bottom and are unwilling to sell despite the recent dip in gold prices.
Friday, February 27, 2015
Gold Bull Market Forecast - Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants.
So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments will some day come back to life and provide opportunity once again. I covered this unique stage analysis in great detail in another report linked below.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Forget Peak Oil; Worry About Peak Demand / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: The_Gold_Report
Brian Bagnell of Macquarie Capital Markets has two caveats for investors in junior oil and gas companies: Expect extreme volatility, and don't expect oil prices above $70/barrel anytime soon. He tells the The Energy Report that the winners in this sector will demonstrate maximal efficiency and minimal costs, and that even in this time of crisis there are bargains to be had.
The Energy Report: Oil prices have made a minor recovery, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at about $50/barrel ($50/bbl) and Brent at about $60/bbl. Where are oil prices going in the short term?
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Scraping The Bottom Of The WTI Crude Oil Price Barrel In 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Anthony Alfidi writes: Energy sector investors are waiting for a bottom in oil prices. Industrial energy users are looking for a hard price to use as a benchmark for hedging their consumption. A generation's worth of history allows us to make an educated guess about where the bottom price of the 2015 oil market glut may appear.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Euro Issues Will Underpin Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Submissions
Harley Salt writes: The Greek Eurozone creditors that have been keeping Greece afloat since 2010 have extended the country’s bailout by four months however it is only the beginning from what we see as a number of key flash points facing the Eurozone which will in turn support the price of gold over the next 12 months.
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Austin_Galt
This analysis will cover the CRB Continuous Commodity Index, the US Dollar index and one of the main commodity currencies, the Australian dollar. We’ll begin with the CRB Continuous Commodity Index which comprises a mixture of components from sectors including energy, metals, soft commodities and agriculture.
Let’s take a top down approach to the analysis beginning with the yearly chart.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2015
12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
Being involved in the fairly niche business of an international gold brokerage for nearly 12 years now, we find ourselves continuously engaged in conversation with people who demonstrate an incredible lack of understanding of the function of gold and the importance of gold as a DIVERSIFICATION and as a SAFE HAVEN asset.
This lack of understanding is not confined to the public but also prevalent with some financial experts. One example of this is one of the more vocal anti gold experts in recent months – leading Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Gold and Debt: Astonishing Comparisons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Debt and budgets in the trillions of dollars and euros are difficult to comprehend. The US budget is nearly $4 Trillion per year while the US official national debt exceeds $18 Trillion. A single large bank may hold contracts for more than $50 Trillion in derivative contracts. Global debt is approximately $200 Trillion.
Let’s relate those numbers to gold prices, gold mined each year, and gold mined throughout history.
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Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Sugar Commodity Price To Sweeten Up / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Austin_Galt
The sugar price has been shellacked over recent years but, if my analysis is correct, it is set to sweeten up over the coming months.
Let’s mix it up and begin with the monthly chart.
SUGAR MONTHLY CHART
The lower horizontal line denotes a double bottom stemming from the 2010 low at US$13 and 2014 low at US$13.32. Price has already rallied a little but I expect a bigger reaction off this level.
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
This Massive “Crunch” Means Higher Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: As oil prices inch forward, there’s an inevitable consequence of lower prices building that will help them climb even higher.
It’s called the “reserve crunch.”
Faced with significantly lower oil prices, the replenishment of oil reserves is beginning to take a massive hit.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Wheat Commodity Price Technical Trend Forecast / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Austin_Galt
Wheat is the Big Daddy of the agricultural commodity sector. World trade in wheat is greater than that of all other crops combined while it is grown on more land than any other food.
Let’s analyse the technical's of this commodity behemoth using the yearly, monthly and weekly charts.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
The Easy Oil Is Gone So Where Do We Look Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel. The former chief economist at CIBC World Markets was so convinced of his thesis, he wrote a book about it. "Why the World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller" forecast a sea change in the global economy, all driven by unsustainably high oil prices, where domestic manufacturing is reinvigorated at the expense of seaborne trade and people's choices become driven by the ever-increasing prices of fossil fuels.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Gold: The Good, Bad, and Truly Ugly / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
THE GOLD STANDARD: Although it may be unrealistically optimistic, I believe my paraphrase of a Churchill quote:
“Central Bankers will eventually do the right thing and return to a gold standard after they have exhausted all other alternatives.”
While central bankers are exhausting all other alternatives, I worry about the collateral damage to 90% of the population who are not first in line on the fiat money gravy train that benefits the financial and political elite.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Eurozone Gold Holdings Increase to 10,792 Tonnes As “Reserve of Safety” Amidst Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
The Euro zone raised its gold holdings by 7.437 tonnes to 10,791.885 tonnes in January, International Monetary Fund data released overnight showed.
The rise in gold holdings was small in tonnage terms and in percentage terms – especially when viewed in the light of the recently launched ECB’s EUR 1 trillion QE monetary experiment.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Is Gold Investing Risk Free? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Axel_Merk
I’ve long argued that there may not be any safe asset anymore and that investors may want to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. But what about gold? When I mentioned in a recent interview that not even gold is ‘risk free,’ it raised some eyebrows in the gold community. Let me elaborate.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
The Bull Case For Gold Price 2015, and the Bear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Bob_Kirtley
There are many opposing views as to what will drive the price of gold this year and in which direction. We will discuss these views and the major factors that have contributed to their formation. Gold is a function of monetary policy just as currencies are, so we will cover on the actions and current stance of major central banks with a heavy focus on the Fed and the US economy. We currently hold the view that the Fed will hike this year and that this will drive gold to new lows before the end of 2015.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Is Crude Oil Price Returning To $100 Or Dropping To $10? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you're a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months. Pickens prediction has moderated somewhat as WTI and Brent crude have continued to fall, but in January he was still saying that oil would return to $70 or $80/barrel in the near future. So, who is correct?
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Gold Price Just Needs More Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Bob_Loukas
The Gold market appears to be in reverse gear at present. It’s at fresh 6 week lows with a 2nd Daily Cycle that continues to wind lower, and is showing nothing that’s at all positive. Gold is trading very lethargically, and is uninteresting from most perspectives.
Assets move higher or lower in direct relation to the sentiment of traders and investors. And sentiment swings like a pendulum, from bullish to bearish and then back again. Sentiment is the primary driver of demand, with greater buyer engagement – both in numbers and enthusiasm – required to drive prices higher. Unfortunately for Gold bulls, it appears that the sentiment pendulum has already peaked, and is heading back toward bearish lows. We see this clearly in the COT reports, with traders continuing to shift from net Long to net Short positions. The report’s actual survey data confirms that sentiment for the current Investor Cycle has topped, and is now in decline.
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Monday, February 23, 2015
Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
The reaction back by gold over the past month was preceded by an explosion in Commercial short and Large Spec long positions. On gold's 6-month chart we can see that this reaction has been quite deep, and that it has taken the price back down below the neckline of a potential Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern, where it should have found support and turned up again. The fact that it didn't is a negative development, that opens up the risk of a retreat back to the vicinity of the lows, although as it is short-term oversold here and on a support level, it could bounce first, then head lower. Moving averages are in a potentially strongly bearish configuration on a medium-term basis, as the 50-day is rolling over beneath a still falling 200-day.