Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Gold Bear Market Rally or New Bull ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Submissions
Plunger writes: Let’s step back and take a look at where we are and eyeball a few charts. I think one needs to resolve the key question with oneself. Are we in a new bull market or has this been yet another BMR within a big bad bear market that has not yet hit bottom? Rambus’ long term charts argue that the bear is not yet over. My studies with the psychology of bear markets and the categorizing of phases also argue the bear is not over. So if one was to also conclude the bottom is not yet in, then by definition this current 12 week rally is a BMR.
Friday, January 23, 2015
Global QE and the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clif_Droke
After months of waiting, the European Central Bank (ECB) finally carried through with its stated promise of unlimited monetary support to its ailing economy. The ECB announced its own version of quantitative easing (QE) on Thursday, a move which lifted the dark clouds that have recently hung over financial markets.
In March the ECB will begin purchasing 60 billion euros' worth of government and corporate bonds through September 2016. In response to the announcement the equity markets of several major countries rallied while the price of gold and silver also rose.
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Friday, January 23, 2015
Gold Price Due for a Setback? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
Now that we have had a chance to see how the dust settled after this historic day in the markets, there are some observations I would like to make.
I want to start out first with the junior mining shares, as evidenced by the GDXJ. The readers know that I have expressed concern over the fact that this group has been lagging the performance of the actual metal. Typically, in a strong upside run in gold, that is not the case as this index tends to outperform the metal itself.
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Friday, January 23, 2015
This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Euro Edition / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: John_Rubino
Today the European Central Bank acknowledged that the currency it manages is being sucked into a deflationary vortex. It responded in the usual way with, in effect, a massive devaluation. Eurozone citizens have also responded predictably, by converting their unbacked, make-believe, soon-to-be-worth-a-lot-less paper money into something tangible. They’re bidding gold up dramatically.
Friday, January 23, 2015
Gold New Bull Beginning? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold ended 2014 essentially breakeven, being slightly down (1½%). It was a choppy year for gold and a bad year for gold shares.
But it looks like the bear market may now be coming to an end. In fact, it could happen at any time.
The seemingly never ending fall in the oil price, the plunging euro and petro currencies, and weaker stocks all pushed safe haven buying to bonds and gold as the new year got started.
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Thursday, January 22, 2015
Crushing The U.S. Oil and Gas Energy Export Dream / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States are among the dumbest energy ideas of all time. Exporting gas is dumb.
Exporting oil is dumber.
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Thursday, January 22, 2015
Will Gold Price Break Out Once Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Being on the long side of the precious metals market with half of the long-term investment capital seems justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Gold rallied once again yesterday and so did silver and mining stocks. The question is if the rally is about to pause or end, since mining stocks are not really outperforming gold and the USD Index has just confirmed the breakout above the 2005 high.
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Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Gold and Silver Early Days / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jesse
After a morning smackdown gold was able to hold its level just below 1300, with silver showing a little more resilience.
Tomorrow we should hear the official word from the ECB, after the 'leak' today of over a trillion in QE per year.
The central banks of the West are 'plowing the oceans.'
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Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Is Gold Pro-cyclical or Anti-cyclical? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Is Gold Pro-cyclical or Anti-cyclical?
There are no two identical business cycles. Their courses depend on the many independent actions of market participants. Also, each time money flows and spreads out differently in the economy, affecting distinct prices in various ways. However, according to a general pattern, business cycles can be broken down into four stages, during which distinct assets classes, including gold, behave differently. To understand what may happen in the gold market during a possible recession, we have to examine how changes in the business cycle affect the performance of different asset classes.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Gold Price Reaches First Target – Potential Short-term Pull Back Now Possible / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: MarketsToday
As discussed in our last analysis on gold from January 4, a bearish AB=CD pattern was forming with a 100% D leg completion at 1,273.9. That price target was reached last Friday as gold hit a high of 1,282.11 for the week. Although not assured, a pullback is now possible. In addition to the ABCD completion, potential resistance can also be seen in this general price area from previous price structure (support and resistance).
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Gold Price Model Says Gold Still Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Gold hit a price low of approximately $1,140 in early November 2014. Since then it has rallied dramatically, possibly because of global fears about the financial system, the Swiss National Bank removing its peg to the Euro, more QE, escalating war in the Ukraine, or simply that gold prices were over-extended and ready to rally.
In my opinion gold reached an important low in November, and in spite of a rising dollar, has rallied since then in dollar terms, and even more in most other fiat currencies.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Gold Demand Explodes as Volatility and Fear Stalk Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
Although the extent to which the surprise move by the Swiss National Bank last week has damaged financial institutions will not be apparent until the end of the month, it is already clear that enormous damage has been wreaked on many businesses exposed to the foreign exchange markets.
GoldCore has seen significant increase in gold demand from investors in the first weeks of January 2015 as compared to the same period in 2014. Gold bullion volume amongst buyers was 3 (365%) times level last year, with particular emphasis being placed on safe secure storage vaults in Zurich and Hong Kong and Singapore.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Is Market Sentiment Shifting to Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
Equities past their peak? Bond market dead? So where do investors go looking for returns? Eric Coffin suggests gold, both bullion and stocks. In this interview with The Gold Report, the publisher of Hard Rock Analyst explains how changes in the currency and energy markets have reignited interest in the sector, and suggests five gold explorers, plus one each in copper and uranium, poised to profit from the new economic realities.
The Gold Report: Quite a few analysts believe 2015 will be a year of great economic volatility, as foreshadowed by what happened with oil in 2014. Do you agree?
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Monday, January 19, 2015
Gold Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Nothing has been done to address the structural inadequecies and distortions that lead to the 2008 financial crisis - instead our leaders have resorted to the procrastination made possible by turning to drugs, specifically Quantitative Easing, which has enabled them to clamp interest rates at 0 to prevent the already unserviceable debt load from compounding out of sight. Spearheaded by the US, this money printing policy has now become standard practice around the world, with Europe and Japan following suit in a big way. The notion put about that all this newly printed money can somehow be contained within banks is nonsense as demonstrated by the soaring prices of stockmarkets in developing markets until recently and in various asset bubbles like the boiling London and New York Real Estate markets.
Monday, January 19, 2015
Bundesbank Announces Repatriation of 120 Tonnes of Gold from Paris and New York Federal Reserve / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
The Bundesbank, Germany’s powerful central bank, announced very publicly this morning the further repatriation of some of it’s gold being held in foreign locations – namely in Paris and New York with the Bank of France and the Federal Reserve.
“The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold,” the central bank said in a statement. “Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule,” said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
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Monday, January 19, 2015
U.S. Dollar’s Major Breakout and Gold’s Simultaneous Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Being on the long side of the precious metals market with half of the long-term investment capital seems justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Gold soared on Friday once again and so did the USD Index. It was yet another day of the two rallying together, which is a very bullish development. What’s next?
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Monday, January 19, 2015
Bottom Line Thoughts on the Gold Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
Improving Macro Backdrop
In light of a shifting global macro backdrop that we can finally sink our teeth into with respect to a bullish orientation on the gold stock sector, I thought it might be a good idea to publicly post some bottom line thoughts from this week's NFTRH report.
The report went into great detail to explain why more fundamentals that matter are starting to come in line, after the chart below refused to make a signal against our big picture view of global economic contraction, which has been the biggest key for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.
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Monday, January 19, 2015
Silver Price Breaks Out on Swiss France Euro Decoupling / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Silver broke out from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom on Friday, a day after gold did the same following the news that the Swiss Franc is to be decoupled from the euro. In the face of the impending QE tsunami in Europe, the Swiss have decided to call it a day and give up supporting the euro peg and retreat to the relative safety of the mountains, where at least they will have a plentiful supply of their high quality cheese and chocolate, as foreigners are less able to buy it. The reason that gold and silver broke higher is that the Swiss move is an unwelcome reminder of the ongoing and intensifying global currency war, characterized by competitive devaluation and bouts of QE. When there is more and more money and it buys less and less, gold and silver must go up in price - that's not too difficult to understand, is it??
Monday, January 19, 2015
Gold, Flights to Quality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
It is pleasing to see precious metals in favour as 2015 gets underway in earnest. Whilst ‘quality’ might be a subjective term, it seems to have been applied, in my opinion quite rightly, to gold, silver, platinum and palladium by investors looking to protect themselves from a start-of-the-year volatility storm in other asset classes. In the wider commodity world, oil and copper prices are still languishing whilst precious metals have shown their value to investors as a stand-alone and increasingly non-correlated asset class.
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Sunday, January 18, 2015
Gold Sheep Sheared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Austin_Galt
Baa, baa. That's the sound of the sheep that follow the crowd spouting bunkum that gold can't go up if the US dollar goes up as well. This fallacy has been shown over the past couple of months for what it is - complete nonsense.
Both gold and the US dollar have surged in tandem the past couple of months. This is why I like to analyse each instrument on its own merits and not let my judgement of one be clouded by my view of another. This is often easier said than done mind you.
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