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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Junior Gold Miners Dangerously Close to the Cliff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

There are times to keep being focused on higher timeframes, yet the finer ones do send valuable signals at times too. And today, every precious metals investor better pay attention to their message. Take a look at the below chart featuring the miners.

We will compare the junior miners to what GLD ETF and SPY did. The latter are ETFs representing gold and the S&P 500.

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Commodities

Friday, April 24, 2020

Coronapocalypse Is Deeper than the Great Recession. Will Gold Shine Even More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent economic reports show that the current coronavirus crisis will be bigger than the Great Recession. What does it imply for the gold market?

US Economic Data Paints a Gloomy Picture

This week was full of new reports about the US economy. And guess what, I don’t have good news… First of all, let’s start with the update about the weekly initial unemployment benefits. In normal times, the initial claims are not too keenly watched by investors. But in times of a pandemic, they are very informative. The spike in the initial claims may even become the symbol of this crisis. Anyway, the number of new claims for the unemployment benefits declined from 6.6 million in the previous week to 5.2 million in the week from April 4 to April 11, as the chart below shows.

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Commodities

Friday, April 24, 2020

Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

After a long term bear market in most commodity related stocks we are starting to hear analyst talk about inflation. From a Chartology perspective the deflationary scenario is still in play but how much lower can this sector go? In tonights Weekend Report, I’m going to update some long term commodity charts we’ve been following for years to see where they are currently trading in their bear cycle.

Lets begin by looking at one of the most widely followed commodity indexes the CRB. This 20 year monthly chart clearly shows the bear market began in July of 2008 which puts the age of its bear market at 12 years and counting. The initial crash, out of the 2008 high, was the same crash that the stock markets and PM complex experienced. The countertrend rally out of the 2009 crash low setup the next important high in the ongoing bear market which was the 5 year H&S consolidation pattern. The impulse move out of that 5 year H&S consolidation pattern took the CRB index down to the January 2016 low where we saw another countertrend rally that concluded in May of 2018 forming the head of the 4 year H&S consolidation pattern. The H&S neckline gave way in February of this year and has reached the minimum H&S price objective at 134.23. The CRB index has now reached an important point within its impulse move down where we could see either another small consolidation pattern start forming, similar to the blue expanding triangle halfway pattern in 2005, or some type of reversal pattern.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Central Banks Fire Bazooka at Coronavirus. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The new coronavirus has already infected the global economy. The global lockdown means that recession is inevitable. The central banks all over the world have stepped in, including the Fed, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system. We invite you thus to read our today’s article about the monetary policy in time of plague and find out what the fresh central banks’ bazookas imply for the global economy and the gold market.

The new coronavirus has already infected the global economy. The global lockdown means that recession is inevitable. The central banks all over the world have stepped in, cutting interest rates and pumping liquidity into the system.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Silver Charts Say $5 Or Lower Is Coming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Even the most casual silver investor must be discouraged with what has happened to silver prices recently. But what about those who were/are super bullish? How do they feel?

As I read various reports and articles, I sense some back peddling on the more extreme predictions which were so prevalent just shortly more than a month ago. On the other hand, I also sense a reluctance to let go; to just admit they were wrong and move on.

Experiencing the reality of silver’s price decline of more than one-third in barely three weeks has left its mark in ways that cannot be ignored. It is ignored, though. And when it isn’t ignored, it is excused; or explained in terms that are supposed to make you feel better, but somehow make you feel worse.

Rather than rehash all of the depressing details verbally, I thought it might be a good idea to look at some silver charts which give us pictures of the damage that has been inflicted on a technical basis.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

A Massive Gold Bull Market Building / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Imagine, if you will, there was no coronavirus. No haz-mat suits, medical masks & gloves, no make-shift morgues. No terminally ill patients hooked up to ventilators, no horrible deaths without love ones close, no lockdowns, no social distancing, no deserted streets, no bailouts, no emergency wage supplements, just a regular spring with birds chirping and flowers blooming. 

Of course there is no getting away from the covid-19 pandemic that has slammed into populations and economies like a “God of chaos” comet. It seems to have permeated civilization, threatening lives, livelihoods, and the way we conduct ourselves professionally and socially. 

I’d just like to put it into perspective, by looking back at where we were, before all this madness began. Because in the wise words of philosopher George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” 

It is tempting, while still in the thick of the pandemic, to don rose-colored glasses, but weeks before the onset of covid-19, we were writing how things were not going as well as they appeared, with the global economy. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

The Subtle Precious Metals Signals Keep Coming In / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The greenback exerts powerful influence on the precious metals – that has been the case yesterday, and it unsurprisingly continues to be so also today. So, what message is the USDX sending out right now?

USD Index in the Spotlight

We’ll open up with a quote from yesterday’s Alert (by the way, please remember that all charts are expandable/clickable):

Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart, we see that the USD Index just formed a reversal and is now testing the previous lows. There were very few 4-hour reversals in the recent days, but when we saw them, big and fast rallies followed. The early-March bottom is particularly similar to the current situation as the USD Index is – just like back then – after a visible decline, and the 4h reversal was followed by a re-test of the intraday low.

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Commodities

Monday, April 20, 2020

Supply, Demand, and Depreciation: Key Drivers for Copper, Gold and Silver as the Economy Reopens / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

The metals markets are being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously like never before. The global virus-triggered economic freeze has caused industrial demand for all commodities to crater.

At the same time, mining output is also crashing as virus fears force many mines around the world to suspend operations.

What is the “right” equilibrium price for copper, silver, gold, and other metals in an environment of such extreme and unstable supply and demand stresses? The verdict of the market changes – often dramatically – day by day.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Does Gold Really Care Whether Coronavirus Brings Us Deflation or Inflation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

One of the many bothering issues about the coronavirus crisis, is whether it will turn out to be inflationary or deflationary. What do both of these scenarios mean for gold ahead?

US Inflation Rate Declines in March

Many people are afraid that the coronavirus crisis will spur inflation. After all, the increased demand for food and hygiene products raised the prices of these goods. Moreover, the supply-side disruptions can reduce the availability of many goods, contributing to their increasing prices.

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Commodities

Friday, April 17, 2020

AI Fibonacci Modeling Predicts Silver at $26 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system incorporates an intelligent “Inference Engine” into internal decision-making and future analysis.  This type of “Adaptive Learning” is one of the core elements of Artificial Intelligence – the ability to read inputs, adapting to price structures and setups and infer expected outcomes/results based on a complex decision-making process.  Today, we are alerting you that our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting $26 is the next target level for Silver (which is currently trading near $15.65). 

Learning how to interpret the data presented by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is simple – it does the internal analysis automatically and presents future target levels and trigger levels on the charts as lines and blocks.  Trigger levels are set up as both GREEN and RED lines for current Bullish and Bearish Trends.  Each of these trends also has target BLOCKS drawn out into the future representing where the Adaptive Fibonacci system believes the next price target will be located.  These target levels are determined by the Adaptive Learning Inference Engine and represent the best outcome of the true Fibonacci price structure we can deliver.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 16, 2020

3 Top Oil Stocks to Buy Right Now / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Due to several recent events, including a price war initiated by Russia, the price of oil has declined to record-low levels these past couple of weeks. Subsequently, the price decline resulted in a massive worldwide panic which pushed the price down even further.

While the panic might reasonable and based on a real fear of what the situation might lead to, there are still ways that investors can protect their funds. And for those willing to risk a little extra, some investments could even pay off in the short run, especially when investing in stable oil stocks.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Gold Price Near March Highs and Ready to Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Submissions

Recent shifts in the markets suggest gold prices are about to breakout in the same manner as they did over the summer last year.

The price of gold is a small distance away from the March highs ahead of the North American open on Monday and a fresh seven-year high looks to be probable.

Many factors impact the price of gold but there are few specific things that I am looking at that lead me to believe gold prices are about to break out.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Global Shutdown and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos. This what we are observing right now – the only difference is that Atlas has not shrugged but got infected. But the result is the same. The economy freezes. We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out what does the global shutdown implies for the global economy and the gold market!

Have you read Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged? The main theme of the book is that – overwhelmed by growing statism – entrepreneurs at one point say finally “basta!” and announce a strike. They disappear, leaving their businesses to their fate. The symbolic Atlas who carries the world, shrugs. As a result, the economy collapses, plunging the world into chaos.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 11, 2020

A ‘Good’ Thursday as Gold Stocks Show the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lock down”.

It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.

But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2020

Gold and Understanding the Current Investment Reality / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Gold has been misunderstood and ignored by retail investors, financial advisors and pension managers as a critical portfolio asset during normal market conditions.  However, during periods of market stress, such as we are experiencing now, gold becomes a safe haven asset that will mitigate losses in the portfolio. For a number of years, many experts have been warning about overinflated markets that were just waiting for a spark to ignite the entire system. 

I warned investors that we were in a triple bubble in stocks, bonds and real estate that was created by central bank policies. Although I concluded that a market crash was inevitable, I didn’t foresee that the spark to ignite all three bubbles would be the Coronavirus. While the virus itself is life threatening and will result in large demographic changes across the globe, the economic implications may be worse than the disease. Major economies in Europe, Canada and the United States have been shut down. Every industry—airlines, hotels, manufacturing, entertainment, sports, schools and retail—is in lockdown.  Most of the western world is ravaged by fear, isolation, loss of employment, loss of income and the psychological effect of this massive lockdown situation. Employees have either been terminated or laid off indefinitely. The scale of this unemployment crunch and financial crisis is beyond the reach of governments’ assistance. Many businesses will not be able to reopen once the health issues have been controlled.

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2020

A Rare Bottoming Pattern on the HUI Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Back at the 2008 crash low in the HUI there was a reversal pattern, that is pretty rare, which helped confirm that very important low. If you ever wondered what the 2007 – 2008 top looked like and the decline that followed to the 2008 crash low this daily chart for the HUI paints the Chartology I posted at the tent, in real time, as the impulse move to the downside took place.

The 2007 – 2008 H&S top was actually a double H&S top which ended the first 8 years of the bull market that began in 2000. Even though that is a beautiful H&S top no one wanted to believe it could be possible when I first began to post the possibility of what the implications were. At the time I viewed the H&S top as a normal H&S reversal pattern but I had no idea it would lead to the crash it did. Even during the crash of that magnitude the Chartology was about as good as it can get.

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Commodities

Friday, April 10, 2020

Expectations For Higher Gold Prices – Fly In The Ointment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

From Wikipedia: “In English, the phrase fly in the ointment is an idiomatic expression for a drawback, especially one that was not at first apparent, e.g.

     We had a cookstove, beans, and plates; the fly in the ointment was the lack of a can opener.” 

For four centuries, ‘a fly in the ointment’ has meant a small defect that spoils something valuable or is a source of annoyance. The modern version thus suggests that something unpleasant may come or has come to light in a proposition or condition that is almost too pleasing; that there is something wrong hidden, unexpected somewhere.”

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).

The percentage arrived at by dividing the country’s total GDP by its total debt indicates the country’s ability to pay back its loans. The higher the percentage, the higher the risk of a country being unable to pay the interest on its debt, and therefore defaulting on its debt. (countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios typically have trouble paying off debts. Because they are a higher risk to paying loans back, creditors demand higher interest rates. If a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio becomes too extravagant, creditors may stop lending to it altogether)

While debt defaults are rare, they can and do happen. In 2010 the European Union faced a crisis when Greece threatened to default, potentially causing a domino effect, of highly leveraged nations like Spain and Italy doing the same, which likely would have destroyed the European Union. 

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Commodities

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

With his portfolio "solidly anchored" in silver and gold, sector expert Michael Ballanger opines on how bankers and politicians can manipulate markets.

As a child, I used to get quite excited at the prospect of having my English "Gran" read me the Hans Christian Andersen book "The Emperor's New Clothes." I found the tale fiendishly amusing, as the charlatan tailor uses lethal doses of flattery and mystery to beguile the poor sovereign into really believing that he is wearing the finest robes ever woven. There is even greater irony in the crowds he passes during a parade as they "Oooh" and "Awww" at his comic preening, knowing full well that he is making a fool of himself but too fearful to do anything but play along. The ending is sublime, with the ultimate moment of reckoning coming "from the mouths of babes," in the form of a young lad who finally blows the whistle with the innocent but true acknowledgement that, indeed, the emperor was parading pitifully through the town square clad only in his knickers.

I think that I admired and, in fact, envied the scallywag tailor in a manner not dissimilar to the way I am awed by this recent bevy of bankers and politicians. They stand in front of the cameras with their carnival barker bravado and serpentine smiles as they lift trillions of dollars from the future wallets of the taxpaying public and distribute it shamelessly among their capitalist cronies.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price).  Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders.  The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.

For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias.  A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.

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