Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Counterfeit Products Hurt the Consumer and the Economy / ConsumerWatch / Fakes

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Little things add up.

A bunch of bricks add up to a house. Too many drinks add up to a hangover.

So it is with the economy: small, seemingly unrelated events can add up to important information—if you just connect the dots.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Gold: What's Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Axel_Merk

After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play.

We have argued in the past that for investors to consider any investment, including gold, in their portfolio, it needs to satisfy two conditions: it needs to exhibit low correlation to their existing investments; and there should be an expectation of a positive return. Let’s evaluate the changing investment landscape for gold in the context of the election:

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

What Exactly is True Capitalism? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Holmes

We’ll begin with this truth: We cannot snap our fingers and have “wants” immediately transformed into “satisfactions.” We are born having to struggle to survive. We must take atomic elements, which are provided gratuitously by nature, and transform them into the goods and services that give us satisfaction. Everything used to build an Italian sports car is provided by nature, but not in a form that can be used directly without modifications. The raw material must be combined by our labor and know-how. Wants require efforts to obtain satisfaction. Man is constantly striving to reduce these painful efforts that consume so much of his energy and time. Unfortunately, the history of mankind has been one of pillage: A plan for less efforts. It is far easier to steal a sack of corn than take the effort to grow it.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

EURO Yearly Cycle Low / Currencies / Euro

By: Gary_Savage

The Euro daily cycle is now on Day 16. I’m guessing the euro will print a final yearly cycle low sometime this week.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Brahms & Democracy / Politics / Social Issues

By: Antonius_Aquinas

In November of 1876, one hundred and forty years ago, Johannes Brahms’ monumental First Symphony was first heard, performed in Karlsruhe, Germany.  The much anticipated work – which took Brahms over 20 years to complete – has become part of the cannon of Western music.  Ironically, the premier of The Ring by Brahms’ supposed rival and fellow musical genius, Richard Wagner, was performed for the first time in the same year.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

How Trump's Election Victory Will Galvanize Kindred Spirits in Europe / ElectionOracle / European Union

By: STRATFOR

Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election was cause for celebration among Europe's largest anti-establishment political forces. Party leaders from France's National Front, Italy's Five Star Movement and the Netherlands' Party of Freedom offered congratulations to the president-elect, thrilled by his demonstration that the political and media establishment can be thwarted. Like Trump, they hope to ride the wave of anti-establishment fervor building on both sides of the Atlantic to power in 2017, when some of the European Union's biggest economies will hold national elections.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Stock Market is destined to soar higher: Masses are not bullish, / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

and $50 trillion is sitting on the sidelines
Men are afraid to rock the boat in which they hope to drift safely through life's currents, when, actually, the boat is stuck on a sandbar. They would be better off to rock the boat and try to shake it loose, or, better still, jump in the water and swim for the shore. Thomas Szasz

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Non-USD Picture of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions (with a stop-loss order at $41.39 and initial upside target at $49.53) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Although crude oil moved lower after the markets open, oil bulls stopped further deterioration and triggered a rebound in the following hours. As a result, light crude erased most of earlier losses and closed the day above Friday’s low. What can we expect in the coming days?

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

A Good Day for Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market had a terrific Tuesday as the indices forged ahead, adding to the recent gains. The day started out with gap ups and a strong, early-morning move, reaching the morning highs within the first half hour. In a 3-wave pullback move toward lunch hour, they retested the highs, held well, and moved up steadily all afternoon. Late in the session the Nasdaq 100 had a small pullback, because they had a big recovery earlier, but the S&P 500 closed near the highs for the day.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The War On Cash Goes Nuclear In India, Australia and Across The World / Currencies / War on Cash

By: Jeff_Berwick

We are living in a world where paper fiat money is becoming a novelty.

In Australia, Citibank has just become the first to declare that it no longer will accept notes or coins. Only digital transactions. This follows on the heels of India banning large cash denominations.

The cash-oriented changes of these two countries are especially troubling in light of the eventual plans to phase out large denomination euro notes and the US 100 dollar bill by 2018.  Just as the Economist predicted nearly 30 years ago, the world is going cashless.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

U.S. Economy at Major Long-Term Pivotal Point / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

As the dust settles from the U.S. presidential election, multitudes of political analysts and news commentators continue to scratch their heads wondering “what went wrong?” The collective question they're asking of course is in reference to the candidate who was elected President.

This is the wrong question to ask, however. What they should be asking is what led millions of (mostly) middle class voters to rise up against the favored establishment candidate and voice their disapproval with the incumbent party.  As is normally the case with anything relating to politics, the answer is to be found in the realm of economics.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasts Indicator? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Nate Silver or more correctly his fivethirtyfive.com site got the US Presidential election of 2016 very badly wrong, for instance they had Hillary on a probability of at least 88% a few weeks out from the election day and about an hour before the polls closed had Hillary on a winning 71% against Trump trailing on just 29%.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Stock Market Titanic Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

The Titanic Syndrome is triggered when NYSE 52-week lows out-number 52-week highs within 7 days of an all-time high in equities (or a 400 point rally in the Dow Industrials index). The syndrome was triggered with Thursday’s new high. This phenomenon was discovered by Bill Ohama in 1965. Ohama wrote that the syndrome is typically followed by a 10% drop in the Dow.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Silver Price and The Winds of Complacency / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Not even a surprise Presidential election result could sever the bonds that have held prices in check for more than 5 years.

From a mainstream media perspective, the financial system is a neat little house of cards. Made to look like sturdy boxes on a hilltop; institutional pillars …. that are all the same. The cards are carefully controlled and non-random. They are rigged.

Precious metals will always be rigged to some degree.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

This Is What a Market Mania Looks Like / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

The Trump election has ignited a market mania, but in economic terms, nothing real has changed and the relief probably won't last long, posit Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold.

The Trump election has ignited a market mania, to everyone's surprise. Our sense is that it reflects an enormous relief that the Obama years of deadlock and do-nothing have finally ended. It's how you would feel if, after eight years, someone finally stopped hitting you with a hammer; you would probably feel pretty good. But in economic terms, nothing real has changed and the relief probably won't last long.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Trump Triumphs as UK Brexit Faces a Serious Threat / Politics / BrExit

By: John_Browne

Brexit and the Donald Trump presidential victory should rightly be viewed as the most significant international developments of the last decade. Both events illustrate a breaking down of globalist order and they both threaten the entrenched elite that has so ruthlessly and painfully hurt the middle and working classes. But as Trump supporters revel in the largely unanticipated victory, Brexit faces a serious new challenge.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Trump World: What Happens to Your Investments Now? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Donald Trump’s victory came as the first surprise for many around the world. The reaction in the markets was the second surprise. Investors got what they expected for a few hours overnight as the ballot results came in; stocks were crushed and metals spiked higher. By mid-morning on Wednesday, however, stocks were surging and metals rolled over.

Now, a few days post-election, commentators and “experts” have written stories to explain the action in markets. Some of these stories may even prove true. But at this early stage, investors should recognize that markets mostly reflect hopes, fears, and high frequency trading shenanigans. Reality tends to arrive later.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Did President-Elect Trump Just Inadvertently Kill The Golden Goose? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

President-Elect Trump may have just unwittingly sowed an equity market draw-down which will send even more protesters into the streets of America. Donald Trump's stated economic policies are clearly pro-growth and if he manages to implement his pro-business, anti-regulation agenda, in  the longer term they have the potential to surpass the bold and successful initiatives of Ronald Reagan. However, in the near term he has already unknowingly just shot himself in the foot.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Trump's Mandate to Yellen: Print More Money or You're Fired! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

What kind of President will Donald Trump be? Will he restore America to its former position of greatness, or end up being feckless like a long list of his predecessors? That is yet to be determined.

However, what is clear now is if Donald Trump wants to avoid starting his tenure with an economic crisis similar to that of Mr. Obama he will need to put a lid on long-term interest rates rather quickly. And in order to do that he will have to convince a supposedly politically-agnostic Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, to not only refrain from further interest rates hikes but also to launch another round of long-term Treasury debt purchases known as Quantitative Easing (QE).

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Silver and the Train Wreck / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

The U.S. National Debt is a “train-wreck.” The official debt is nearly $20 trillion and the unfunded liabilities are $100 – $200 trillion, depending on who is counting.

1. It can never be repaid. Implications are dire.
2. Official debt doubles about every 8 years. Does $80 trillion of official debt in the early 2030s sound viable?
3. Per Krugman there is no problem. Consider the source.
4. Denial is not a winning strategy, but it does prolong the period before the crash.
5. The losers in the crash will probably not be the financial or political elite. That leaves the rest of us.