Saturday, July 02, 2016

George Osborne's BrExit Excuse to Scrap UK Government Debt, Deficit and Borrowing Targets / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne Friday announced that he would be using BrExit as an excuse to scrap the cornerstone of his economic policy, one of ending this parliament with an annual budget surplus, instead now stating:

"The referendum result is as expected likely to lead to a significant negative shock for the British economy. How we respond will determine the impact on people’s jobs and on economic growth.

The Bank of England can support demand.

The government must provide fiscal credibility so we will continue to be tough on the deficit but we must be realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of this decade as precisely the flexibility that our rules provide for, and we need to reduce uncertainty by moving as quickly as possible to a new relationship with Europe and being super competitive, open for business and free trading. That’s the plan and we must set to it.”

Saturday, July 02, 2016

Silver Cup and Handles Project to a Potential Price of $54 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jesse

I know some of you have been projecting these nested 'cup and handle' formations on your own, because several readers have sent their examples to me and have asked for comments.

My first comment is the most important and I wish you to take it to heart.

Projections such as this are not forecasts, because the chart formations in these examples for the most part have not been 'activated' and are therefore merely potential things, possibilities, lines on a page subject to a great many exogenous forces and variables, including human and institutional decisions.

Saturday, July 02, 2016

Breakouts Galore in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold broke-out last week on Brexit while Silver waited a week to join the party. The miners, meanwhile cleared 2014 resistance today. There are breakouts across the board in the precious metals space.

The weekly candle charts of Gold and Silver are plotted in the image below. Gold appears to have digested the Brexit pop well as it gained another 1.5% on the week to $1339. If it holds above monthly and quarterly resistance ($1330s) then it should be on its way to $1380-$1400. Meanwhile, Silver surged 9.9% on the week to $19.59. It has broken out from an inverse head and shoulders pattern to nearly a 2-year high. The pattern projects to a target of $22.

Saturday, July 02, 2016

Stock Market Getting Extremely Overbought.....After Extremely Oversold..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market spent days wondering what would happen with Brexit. Would Britain leave or stay was the big question. A surprise vote of leave had the global markets heading south in a very big way. Our markets took quite a powerful, two-day hit, which allowed the short-term sixty-minute RSI's reach extremely oversold at 15 on the key index charts. After two days of downside, the markets reversed without warning and headed straight north, which allowed the RSI's to approach 80. An over 100-point turn-around occurred on the RSI in roughly three and a half days. That's amazing. Truly unheard of. Things went from intense fear and panic to complete froth, and the need to be in at any cost. Emotional swings like that is something you really never see in such a short period of time. The market is acting more and more like this as time moves along.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Shanghai settles 96% of gold trades in physical metal
Absorbs 90% of global gold mine production

In the World Gold Council's Gold Investor magazine, Jiao Jinpu, Chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, reports that "In its first month, the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price’s trading volume was 105.91 metric tons of gold kilo bars, corresponding to a turnover of [renminbi] 27.94 billion and an average daily trading volume of 4.81 metric tons. 102.10 metric tons of gold were physically settled, addressing the market’s need for physical gold."

Friday, July 01, 2016

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Bull Markets Being Driven by NIRP - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Mario_Innecco

minako 64 here home of alternative our economics and contrarian views
ah this is a gold and silver and bitcoin update i'm going to talk about the
technical picture for the precious metals and bitcoin and also a little bit
about the fundamentals behind that the moves we've seen
i made a video a couple days ago it was wednesday morning and silver is breaking
out through 18 and that look really positive and silver has continued and
that today we broke through 19 we went very quickly through the 1850s level
which was the high from january 2015 the max target i think is 2150 which is the
high from july two thousand fourteen and as you can see here now
this weekly silver chart going back to 2011 when we had the high of just under
50 at 4975 roughly and then if you take the low from december 2015 at 1365 the
first big important...

Friday, July 01, 2016

Italian Banks & Moving The Risk During Crisis / Companies / Credit Crisis 2016

By: Dan_Amerman

Europe is changing by the hour and the day at this point. In this analysis, I'm going to take a quick look at critical events that have happened in Italy in the last day or so, and how they relate to my recent Video Guide To Bail-Ins series. I will be using three current Bloomberg articles that came out in the space of about 7 hours as references.

Italy did a bail-in of four banks at the end of 2015, which inflicted bail-in losses on many individual savers, using the process explained in Video #2 of the series, "Comparison Of Bail-Outs vs Bail-Ins For Banks", linked below.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Gold-to-Palladium Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Just behind the podium of precious metals (occupied by gold, silver and platinum) is palladium – an important, but often overlooked investment commodity. Like in case of silver and platinum, the gold-to-palladium ratio indicates the current state of the precious metals market. Investors may benefit from watching a ratio, as it helps to determine the strength of gold compared to palladium. Technically, the number is the price of gold divided by the price of palladium. It shows how many ounces of palladium one ounce of gold can buy.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Will PayPal Ever Hit Its Stock Price Target? / Companies / Corporate News

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Can shares of PayPal, which began trading as an independent company last year after its spinoff from eBay, manage to reach its share price target estimated by analysis at $45 a share? According to comments on Twitter and StockTwits, a financial social media platform from back when PayPal first began trading, many thought that this was certainly possible. Right at the beginning, PayPal shares were closing at around $40, valuing PayPal at $49.4 billion. However, currently, PayPal share prices are valued at $35.08, just under $10 less than their share price target for 2016.

Friday, July 01, 2016

SPX testing critical resistance...again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

You may remember the Expanded Flat level at 2116.00, representing the November 3 high. The June 8 high slightly overshot it at 2120.55. Well, today’s target happens to be…2116.00 again! You simply cannot make this up. It may slightly overshoot (again), but this may be the most critical resistance that we have seen.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Gold's Final Warning of Impending Monetary Collapse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold is currently trading in excess of $1300 an ounce. This is well above the 1980 all-time high. However, this is an incomplete representation of what gold is trading at relative to US dollars. When you look at the gold price relative to US currency in existence (US Monetary Base), then it is close to the lowest value it has ever been.

This in itself is a major warning regarding the sustainability of the current monetary system. In other words, the monetary system is the most debased it has ever been. Furthermore, not only is the monetary system at an all-time high stress-point, but also, this comes at the worst possible time relative to other key conditions.

Friday, July 01, 2016

China Can and Will Confiscate Gold When it Suits Them! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

China can and will confiscate gold from the SGE, banks and Chinese citizens, when it suits them

By far the greater bulk of gold owned in China is under the control of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and they are controlled by the Chinese Central Bank, the People's Bank of China. Should they wish to confiscate their citizen's and institution's gold, it can be done overnight. This includes gold held in Hong Kong. We see Singapore bowing to the will of China in such an event too.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Barclays Doesn’t Need More Capital Even With Brexit, Staley Says - Video / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Bloomberg

Barclays CEO Jes Staley says in a Bloomberg Television interview with Erik Schatzker that the bank didn’t see stress in funding during market volatility.

He says:

- No agreed-upon sales of non-core assets had clauses that would cancel them because of Brexit.

- Stock decline prompted by earnings concerns, not capital or liquidity questions.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Carney Sparks More RISK ON Market Trades / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

Consider this a follow up to my earlier post about the Bank of England’s Mark Carney’s rescue of the financial stocks and the overall stock indices.

We have reached a point where these Central Bankers can move markets at will, merely by uttering the magic words. ” PRESTO – CHANGO; ABRACADABRA! The Central Banks have plenty of tools at their disposal to combat those things which might hamper growth prospects or stock value prospects”.

TRANSLATION – More liquidity – even lower rates – more bond buying, etc.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Reviewing the Basics of the Elliott Wave Principle: The Triangle - Video / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Free Lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy's Trader's Classroom

The Wave Principle classifies price action as either motive or corrective. Corrective waves move opposite the direction of the primary trend and include the zigzag, flat, triangle and combinations of these patterns. They offer traders an opportunity to rejoin the larger trend. Today, you can watch a lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy's Trader's Classroom in which he teaches you the basics of the triangle, a sideways correction, and shows an example in the chart of Pfizer, Inc. (PFE).

Friday, July 01, 2016

Gold, Silver Reaction Following Brexit, Central Bank Desperation Never More Evident… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses market reactions post-Brexit vote.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Stock Market Rally is Wearning Thin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is pulling back from a 21-wave impulse to 2096.68. The rally cannot get any steeper than this as the rally made 5.27% in three days. An 86.3% retracement.

For simplicity sake, I am labeling this Wave C of (2), which makes this an irregular correction. For political sake, this quarter needed to close above the March 31 closing price of 2059.74, about a 1.5% gain (with lots of volatility) for the past quarter. The trendline may be crossed at or below 2090.00.

Friday, July 01, 2016

UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The establishments operation fear had painted a relentless propaganda picture all year for a significant rise in UK interest rates following a Brexit outcome that was destined to send consumer borrowing rates soaring, which at the time I repeatedly warned was just NOT going to happen for the fundamental reason that BrExit induced uncertainty would make a rate hike LESS likely as the last thing the Bank of England would want to do is to add to market uncertainty i.e. the complete opposite to REMAIN propaganda. In fact I stated that a BrExit could even result in a rate CUT as the following excerpt illustrates:

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Michael 'Little Finger' Gove Slays Boris 'Baratheon' Johnson in Game of Thrones for Next Tory PM / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

David Cameron's announcement to step down as Prime Minister by early September propelled Brexit Leader Boris Johnson to become the favourite to takeover as Britain's next Tory Leader and Prime Minister. However, the great game for the Tory 'iron throne' was on, as Michael Gove today both discredited Boris Johnson whom he was supposed to be the campaign manager for and then went against EVERYTHING he has stated during the EU Referendum Campaign, in fact against everything he has been saying for the past 4 years by declaring that he himself would now stand for the Tory Leadership, so it looks like Gove, just like 'Little Finger' has apparently been manoeuvring towards the Tory 'iron throne' all along!

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Gold, Silver, Bonds and Stocks Path Towards Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

Yes, it’s another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%.

Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you’ve found at nftrh.com over the last few weeks.  But if by chance you do want to look, here’s a visual path we have taken to arrive at the barn door, behind which are all those inflated chickens, roosting and waiting.  All sorts of animals will get out of the barn if macro signals activate.