Tuesday, January 05, 2016

2016 Presidential Unreality Show - Hillary is No Snow White / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: BATR

The theatrics from a presidential campaign cycle is some of the best entertainment that a political junkie can hope for. Imagining that the electoral process has even a remote connection that reflects the will of the people is one of the idiocies that Americans delude themselves with in order to rationalize that the country is ruled under democratic elections. At the outset, elections are actually a selection ratification provided by the party hacks and media gatekeepers that serve their supra-elite masters.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Hedge Funds Remain Bullish Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Dan_Norcini

Just as the case with Silver, so do the hedge funds remain stubbornly long in crude oil.

Here is the updated COT chart as of last Tuesday, December 29, 2015.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

SPX May Have a Completed Reversal Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made a perfect five-wave decline and (thus far) a 25% retracement. If SPX is in a Wave C decline, that is all it needs to be complete. The shape of the fractal is intriguing, implying that Wave [iii] may have a minimum target of 1795.00…

The market may have been saved by a $2-3 billion late-day bid out of nowhere. If this is the beginning of Wave C, the retracement may be finished already. Otherwise, I would suggest a target at the 38.2% retracement at 2024.63 at the open tomorrow.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Yellen Comes Down The Chimney  / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: HRA_Advisory

You heard it from Janet Yellen.  “Economic expansions (and by extension bull markets) don’t die of old age.”  That’s true.   But they do die from excess, policy mistakes and Wall St Stoopid. 

Seven years of zero interest rates have created plenty of capital misallocation, mal-investment and yield chasing.  We’ve seen some minor debacles in the high yield space this month.  Nothing earth shattering but certainly disquieting. Big problems often start small and go unnoticed until the tsunami is on the horizon.  Keep an eye on bonds.  The credit market funds a large percentage of the buying underpinned the bull market.  We’ve got a problem if it stops.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Government 'Processing Error' Sinks U.S. Housing Market Reports for Entire Year / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Mike_Shedlock

Huge "Processing Error" in Government Housing Data

When I saw some of the upwardly revised GDP estimates in 2015 I thought they were too good to be true, and that downward revisions were coming.

I had almost given up on that idea, but I was correct all along.

Last month, construction spending was reported to be up 1%. Today we see it was only 0.3%. Economists, being perpetual optimists, came up with a consensus estimate for this month of +0.7% The actual result is -0.4%, over a full percentage point below the consensus and nearly a pull point lower than the lowest estimate of +0.5%.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Manufacturing Hits The Global Stock Markets... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market futures were up a bit early last night. The S&P 500 was up about six points, while the Nasdaq was flashing upward action by fifteen points. A nice way to start the new year after a poor 2015. The last two days of the year 2015 were nasty, thus, the bulls were looking for something positive to break the chain of poor-trading action. The good news didn't last long as China reported news on their manufacturing front, and it was ugly to say the least. Ugly to the tune of being down between seven and eight percent.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Gold and Silver Investors Betting on Deflation May Be a Huge Mistake. Here's Why... / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals investors heading into 2016 worry the dollar will continue marching ahead, right over the top of gold and silver prices. The Fed is telegraphing additional rate hikes throughout the year, and commodity prices – led by crude oil – are falling. There have been tremors in the biggest beneficiary markets of all when it comes to the Fed's QE largesse – U.S. equities and real estate. And the possibility of a recession is growing, both in the U.S. and around the world.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Gold Bull Trap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

For most of December, gold has acted as if it is forming a base from which to rally but gold had a rough week last week losing $16.90/oz. and closed at 1,060.30. In addition, gold printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart. Cycles point to a low this week which could be followed by the kind of rally we would all like to catch but be careful; a 4 year cycle low is not due until later this year making any rally now a likely bull trap.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Stock Market Melt Down at Hand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Over the weekend I had written that I believed the market would go up first before dropping.  I had based that on the normal Mercury retrograde topping action of the past.  I also warned that the market was acting screwy too and the unexpected may happen, especially in light of recent events and the horrible astros this week. My subscribers were warned over the weekend that if the market fell hard Monday, the meltdown scenario would likely be in play for the week.

Monday, January 04, 2016

All Stock Market Indicators Are On a "Confirmed Sell" Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I’m switching over to the daily charts to add perspective to the view.

SPX has now declined beneath all visible supports after testing the 2-hour Cycle Bottom. SPX has been coiling since the beginning of November. It now appears that SPX is completing its first impulsive (5-wave) decline. If you draw a trendline from 1074.00 (October 4, 2011) to August 24, 2015 at 1867.01, we may find support at that trendline near 1970.00.

Monday, January 04, 2016

China’s Slow-Motion Stock Market Sleight Of Hand Shatters / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The Chinese stock markets broke through 2 circuit breakers today, breakers that were introduced only a few months ago in response to the market selloff, triggered by a surprise yuan devaluation, in August. The first breaker, at -5%, forced a 15-minute trading halt. The second one, at -7%, halted trading for the rest of the day.

For many people, today’s bust can’t have been a huge surprise, because it’s been known for some time that a ban on stock sales by parties holding a 5% or larger stake in a company, is set to expire on Friday. Beijing may panic again before that date, but it can’t force stakeholders to hold on to large portfolios forever either.

Monday, January 04, 2016

The Incredible Commodities - Stock Market Divergence and What it Portends... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Clive_Maund

As we approach the end of the year we are going to review one of the most extraordinary divergences that we have witnessed in modern times. This is very important because once you grasp the magnitude of this divergence and what it implies, you will be able to position yourself to firstly avoid harm and secondly capitalize on a reversion to the mean of this divergence, which, because it is so extreme, looks inevitable.

The divergence that we are referring to is the collapse of the Commodity sector in recent years, as the broad stockmarket has continued to ascend into the stratosphere.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Saudi Arabia and OPEC Manipulate Oil Prices to Eliminate It’s Competition / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

About eighteen months ago the international price of WTI Crude Oil, at the close of June 2014, was $105.93 per barrel. Flash-forward to today; the price of WTI Crude Oil was just holding above $38.00 per barrel, a drastic fall of more than 65% since June 2014. I will point out several reasons behind this sharp, sudden, and what now seems to be prolonged slump.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Stock Market Probable Gap Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning and Happy New Year!

What a way to start off the year. The SPX Premarket appears to have gapped down to challenge the 2-hour Cycle Bottom support at 2011.42. It appears the cash market may open beneath that support. However, there could be an attempted bounce there, should support hold. Should the decline break through and exceed the prior lows, the damage may be severe, since there is no visible support to the Head & Shoulders neckline near 1880.00.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Gold Bullion Price 2016 Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Happy New Year. Thank you for all your support in 2015 and wishing you and yours a healthy, prosperous and happy 2016.

Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence has looked at gold’s prospects in 2016 and he thinks the worst may be over for the yellow metal.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Stock Market 2016, This Time Isn't Different / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: James_Quinn

Last year ended with a whimper on Wall Street. The S&P 500 was down 1% for the year, down 4% from its all-time high in May, and no higher than it was 13 months ago at the end of QE3. The Wall Street shysters and their mainstream media mouthpieces declare 2016 to be a rebound year, with stocks again delivering double digit returns. When haven’t they touted great future returns. They touted them in 2000 and 2007 too. No one earning their paycheck on Wall Street or on CNBC will point out the most obvious speculative bubble in history. John Hussman has been pointing it out for the last two years as the Fed created bubble has grown ever larger. Those still embracing the bubble will sit down to a banquet of consequences in 2016.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Technical Analysis of the Corn Commodity Market / Economics / Agricultural Commodities

By: EconMatters

Corn Market 2015

I have been watching corn prices lately as they are getting low enough to at least pique my interest into looking at a market that usually just gets bypassed with the rest of my agricultural futures prices tab on my trading platform, more out of habit than having anything in particular against the agricultural markets. The March 2016 Futures contract was down about 16% in 2015 along with most of the commodity space on fund outflows, a weak China, and a strong dollar.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Technical Analysis of the Lumber Commodity Market / Commodities / Lumber

By: EconMatters

Housing Demand Thesis

The last two years rents have been rising primarily due to supply and demand issues. There hasn`t been enough multifamily housing to keep up with the demand, and as the employment levels go up and more millennials move out of their parent`s house, I expect the housing market to continue to be on the slow but steady upswing of the last several years for 2016.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Stock Market More Correction Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Still a Bull Market

SPX: Intermediate trend - The index may have made a secondary top at the 2116 level and started another decline of intermediate duration.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Wild Swings in Markets Likely to Continue / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Our attention this week will be more to the cycles and planets than to the charts. Last weekend, we were looking for a 4/8 stock market cycle low due early in the week followed by a possible top either December 29 or 30th and then weakness for the rest of the week. December 25th had a Bradley turn with Uranus turning stationary/direct, and December 29th the moon was in Leo/Virgo, where oft times peaks have occurred. With the moon in Virgo and Saturn in Sagittarius, the set up was there for an end of year drop (and a 4/12 TD low).