Monday, December 26, 2022

How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Dow Short-term Trend Analysis

The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.

Monday, December 26, 2022

Gold Price Upleg Still Young / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has been powering higher on balance for a couple months now, surging to major breakouts.  That upside momentum is improving sentiment, with traders growing more bullish on gold’s potential.  That is well-placed, as this upleg remains young.  Major gold uplegs are three-stage events, each having distinct drivers.  The first and smallest stage isn’t even finished yet, which bodes very well for gold and its miners’ stocks.

The yellow metal’s latest upleg was stealthily born at panic-grade lows in late September.  Over the next 2.8 months into this week, gold powered an impressive 12.1% higher!  Yet that remains small and young by recent-upleg standards.  Gold’s previous four uplegs in the last few years averaged way-bigger 28.8% gains over much-longer durations of 7.9 months.  This current upleg is likely only getting started, with a lot to prove.

Major gold uplegs evolve through three stages of specific buying from particular traders.  They are born when gold-futures speculators buy to cover short contracts, which is stage one.  After gold falls to deep lows, some catalyst spooks these guys.  So they rush to close out their risky hyper-leveraged downside bets, which is legally required.  That buying soon becomes self-feeding, catapulting gold sharply higher.

Monday, December 26, 2022

US Debt Jubilee / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Mills

A cross-the-board ‘Debt Jubilee’ might sound radical, but a reading of history shows that retiring debt can actually make a country’s economy, and its indebted citizenry, all the better for it. There is even a relatively recent example. In 2000, U2 front man Bono launched a campaign to provide debt relief to developing countries. The Jubilee 2000 coalition managed to get the G8 to agree to write off $100 billion in debts that developing countries owed to developed nations.

The term ‘Jubilee’ comes from the Old Testament. The book of Deuteronomy refers to a sabbath year during which any slaves would be freed, and everyone would be allowed to return to their family farms and live off the land. During the Jubilee, all debt obligations would be forgiven — such as land or crops that debtors had pledged to creditors.

Monday, December 26, 2022

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Want to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Monday, December 26, 2022

Fuse Box RCD Tripping - How to Troubleshoot Putting Power Back On. Before Calling an Electrician / Personal_Finance / Home Maintenance

By: HGR

Fuse box keeps tripping? Does your electric keep tripping? Then watch this video on how to troubleshoot to get your power back on before calling an electrician.

Monday, December 26, 2022

Llandudno Ferris Wheel at Sheffield City Centre Christmas Market 2022 / Local / Sheffield

By: Eliza_Walayat

Here's a look at the wonderful sights and sounds at Sheffield Christmas Market where the prime attraction was the giant Ferris Wheel brought over from Llandudno Wales. Llandudno Pier owner Adam Williams rolled the the £1million Wheel all the way from Wales to Sheffield Christmas Market after being taken down from the Llandudno pier last month that takes centre piece at Sheffield's christmas festivities.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

How to Disconnect Reconnect a Car Battery, Positive Negative Terminals First and Last - Nissan Micra Example / Personal_Finance / Motoring

By: HGR

Winter has arrived which means many older car batteries may not have enough charging capacity to turn the starter motor to start the car. So it is time for a new battery, bought one online or from the local store but which terminal to disconnect and reconnect first! That and why is answered in this video! No more jump starts or push starts. This example is using a Nissan Micra IV which added it's own complication in terms of post size so something to consider before you rush out to buy a car battery, check your post size first!

Saturday, December 24, 2022

What type of trader or investor are you? / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Trading and investing are much more complex and challenging than most people think. While countless books have been written about how to trade and invest, most skip over what I consider to be the foundation and most important area – You!

The Brutal Truth

The financial markets are driven by fear and greed. Most individuals find this costly as they get sucked into large news-driven moves in the market that often quickly reverse direction. Or they fall in love with a stock or commodity and decide they can’t sell even when it’s pulling their entire account balance down, causing serious financial harm.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Why the Fed Intertest Rates Pivot will Happen Faster than People Think / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Richard_Mills

Most market participants see the Fed’s tightening policy as similar to what Paul Volcker’s Fed did in the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation necessitated a cycle of rate hikes that brought the federal funds rate to 20%. Volcker succeeded in taming inflation but the price was the 1982 recession, considered one of the longest and worst in economic history.

There is one crucial difference between 1982 and 2022, and that is the debt. According to the FRED chart below, the US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three times higher, at 120%.

This severely limits how much and how quickly the Fed can raise interest rates, due to the amount of interest that the federal government must pay on its debt.

Saturday, December 24, 2022

Santa's Grotto UK Cost of Living Crisis Christmas 2022 - 60% INFLATION! / Politics / Social Issues

By: Eliza_Walayat

Nurses, postmen, railwaymen and many others are striking for higher pay due to the raging cost of living crisis as workers pay do not match the prices in the shop, FAKE inflation indices of 10% when real inflation is 20%! Even Santa has hiked his Grotto price by 60%! Making Christmas that bit more painful for many families - BAD SANTA!

Friday, December 23, 2022

TESLA MARGIN CALL PANIC - Margin Debt Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over leveraged investors in Tesla are learning a painful lesson right now as they are getting kicked out of their positions right at the bottom!

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.

Friday, December 23, 2022

Will Tesla Die Next? / Companies / Self Driving Cars

By: Submissions

Elon releases the “Twitter Files”… TSLA is a buy below $200… Our EV play in Disruption Investor hits an all-time high...

1. Elon Musk dropped a bombshell on the internet earlier this month by announcing the release of the so-called “Twitter files.”

Musk, who recently bought Twitter and took it private, tapped independent journalist Matt Taibbi to share the dirty details.

Friday, December 23, 2022

NFT Insanity: No One Should Be This Stupid! / Currencies / NFTs

By: MoneyMetals

Do you remember a man named Vignesh Sundaresan? You don't? Here's a clue. Maybe you remember him from his moniker "MetaKovan."

Still lost?

Vignesh Sundaresan is a co-founder of bitcoin ATM provider Bitaccess. But he's most famous as the "crypto whale" who bought digital art in the from of a Non-Fungible Token (NFT) at Christie's auction for $69.3 million.

Friday, December 23, 2022

The Breakout That’s REALLY Important for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Since the gold market now shows parallels to 2008 and 2013, what can we expect if the correction has just ended?

The USDX's Breakout

The changes that we saw on the charts yesterday were not enough to change anything that I described yesterday, so those comments remain up-to-date. Also, what I covered during yesterday’s live event (I combined the live market analysis with the presentation about the top 3 gold trading techniques – you can see the recording here) remains up-to-date at the moment of writing these words.

Friday, December 23, 2022

Central Banks Wary of U.S. Are Loading Up on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

Investors got some superficially good news on the economy this week. But it turned out to be bad news for markets.

Although they’ve bounced back a little today, equities and precious metals markets sold off on Thursday following government data showing that the economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter. GDP was revised upward to a 3.2% annual pace from July through September.

Of course, a lot has happened since then, including additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. It will be well into next year before the full impact of higher borrowing costs get reflected in the economy.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

CHANGE the Way You Think About Profit and Loss / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

From the comments section many patrons appear eager to trim holdings. However, this is a dangerous game and mindset to have one of selling on a few percent gain on fears that that smaller profit will evaporate into a loss.

Think about it?

If you follow this investing mindset what kind of portfolio will you end up with?

You will have a portfolio where you have sold all of your winners and are only left holding losers!

This is probably down to the way humans are hardwired to avoid pain, i.e. eat the food now rather than it be stolen or lost in the future.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

The Definitive Guide to FTX’s Crypto Collapse / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Everything you need to know about FTX’s collapse in plain English... What it means for crypto... Is Coinbase next?... And what all crypto investors need to do right now...

Is crypto dead?

That’s the question many folks around the Thanksgiving table were asking following crypto exchange FTX’s collapse.

I’ve been following the fallout from FTX’s collapse closely in my premium RiskHedge Venture service. But this analysis is too important to only share with a fraction of our readers. So today, let’s look at what really caused FTX’s downfall… what it means for crypto prices… and how to position yourself for the rebound.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

TESCO Budget 6foot Artificial Christmas TREE, Any Good? - How to Beat the Cost of Living Crisis / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Eliza_Walayat

Is TESCO Budget 6foot Christmas tree any Good? Lets find out as we try to beat the cost of living INFLATION CRISIS by grabbing one at our local Tesco store at a club card discount, how much did it cost £15 discounted from £25. Lets see if it looks as good as picture on the box, and how hard is to setup.

Tuesday, December 20, 2022

STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly this video is an excerpt of my mega-analysis that concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023, that was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a patron from supporting my work for just 4 bucks for month, lock it in now as it is set to rise to 5 bucks per month in the new year.

Monday, December 19, 2022

AI Tech Stocks TRAVELLING THROUGH TIME AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE! / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Many analysts refer to what happened decades ago to try and imply to expect similar today, what is it that they are blind to that ensures the past is not a good measure of the future? What they miss is the exponential nature of the trend we are upon! We are RACING THROUGH TIME AT AN ACCLERATING PACE! What not so long ago took decades now has been compressed into years! What not so long ago took years now takes months! That is the exponential AI mega-trend in a nutshell and it is ACCELERATING! Go back a thousand years and nothing much change for most folks for centuries! Go back 100 years and the changes would be measured in terms of decades! Go back 50 years and changes were measured in years! Today the pace of change is in the months! And yes it will become in the weeks! So how are we to capitalise on this exponential trend? By investing in the stocks that are making the trend become manifest, holding on with both hands as they whip through time at an exponential rate, clinging on as we watch those who SELL fall behind waiting for a dip to get back on board.