Sunday, September 08, 2019

US Stock Market Hasn’t Cleared The Storm Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As much as we would like to report that the US Stock market has recently cleared the future concerns of a global economic recession as well as expanded into a new growth phase, we simply can’t make that claim give the data we are seeing from our proprietary price modeling systems.  Overall, this final quarter of 2019, and early into 2020, may shape up to be a very volatile period in the global markets.

Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

Recently, we posted a research post highlighting the price structure of the ES and TRAN charts that continue to suggest price weakness is still driving overall price rotation.  The TRAN chart is very telling currently as it shows much more substantial price weakness in comparison to the ES, NQ, and YM charts.  We believe the continued price strength is seen in the ES, NQ, and YM charts is related to the continued “Capital Shift” where foreign investors are still pouring capital into the US markets believing they are the safest and most secure investments for the future.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Precious Metals Were Ripe for a Pullback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack” or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.

Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008).

Instead, everybody it seems knew about the high risk Commitments of Traders situation for gold and silver. The CoT is not a timer, but for weeks now it had been a condition that’s been in place for a correction. It’s not a “take down”, it’s a condition of too much speculation that had to be addressed. Now it is. Other CoT data available here.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Market Chart Patterns to Spot High-Confidence Trading Opportunities in a "Pinch"! / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Why this single moving average chart pattern belongs in your technical toolbox today

When it comes to the world of technical market analysis, the biggest obstacle isn't a lack of quality, but rather, an abundance of choice. There are literally hundreds of technical tools out there, with digital libraries and chat boards devoted to the many variations of individual components.

If you used them all, your technical pages would look like the motherboard of the Starship Enterprise. And you'd need Spock himself to interpret the massive influx of data.

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Five Feet High And Rising - Stock Market Bulls False Sense of Security / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Richard_Mills

How high's the water, mama?

Five feet high and risin'

How high's the water, papa?

Five feet high and risin'

Well, the rails are washed out north of town

We gotta head for higher ground

We can't come back till the water comes down,

Five feet high and risin'

Johnny Cash, “Five Feet High and Rising”

US stock markets on Tuesday were like a teenager forced back to school after a summer of fast cars and girls - insolent and bad-tempered. Snapping a three-day winning streak, the Dow and the S&P 500 both fell after US and Chinese tariffs took effect over the long weekend. The sell-off was also influenced by weak US manufacturing data, and more worries over the UK crashing out of the European Union, after the governing Conservative Party lost its majority in the House of Commons due to a Tory member crossing the floor to the Liberal Democrats.

The US manufacturing index for August was just 49.1, marking the first time in three years that America’s manufacturing sector shrank, stoking fears that the slowdown in Europe - Germany is already in recession - has crossed the Atlantic. 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid to 1.47%, from Friday’s close of 1.50%. Two weeks ago the 2-year Treasury note was higher than the 10-year, a worrying signal that investors are less willing to risk their money on a long-term debt instrument. Known as a yield curve inversion, this phenomenon has been a near-perfect recession indicator for the past 60-odd years. 

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Baghdad Donald / Politics / US Politics

By: Peter_Schiff

For Donald Trump, it seems that these are the best of times except that they are the worst of times. How else to explain his contradictory demand that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points despite his repeated claims that our current economy is "the best in the history of the United States?" That kind of "break glass in case of emergency" monetary policy is something that even the eldest among us have only seen once or twice. And those times have certainly been desperate.

As has been showcased in recent days, Trump can flip-flop faster than anyone in Washington. He wants capital gains indexing on Monday, only to abandon the idea on Tuesday. At breakfast, he wants expanded background checks for firearms, but drops the idea by lunch. But in his call to slash interest rates in a "great" economy, the president flip-flops in the same sentence.

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Fed’s Cut Puzzle and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC amid solid US economy remains a mystery. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Fed’s cut puzzle and its find out what does it mean for the gold market.

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC – just half a year after an interest rate hike – remains a mystery. After all, the data indicates that the labor market remains strong – unemployment rate is still at the record low – while the GDP has been rising at a moderate rate. While the inflation rate is below the target, it’s still significantly above the deflation zone. So why the heck did the Fed cut rates? The answer to this question is of great importance as long-term implications for gold differ depending on the possible reason.

First, the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates because Powell could not stand the pressure of the White House and the merciless tweets of Donald Trump. The Fed is, of course, nominally independent, but investors should not be naïve. The past presidents and policymakers also applied pressure on the Fed. The most famous example is the story how in 1965, President Lyndon Johnson summoned William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman, to his Texas ranch where Johnson physically shoved him around living room, yelling in his face, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” The only difference is that past presidents tended to stick to creating pressure behind closed doors, while Trump is simply more public. If true, it would be a very positive scenario for gold prices. The politicians love low interest rates, and Trump is a particularly vocal supporter of cheap money.

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Gold Stocks Very Overbought / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have grown very overbought after soaring dramatically higher in recent months.  Blasting really far really fast has left this sector really stretched technically and sentimentally.  Excessive gains and greed always soon lead to major corrective selloffs, which are necessary to restore balance.  All bull markets, even the most powerful, flow and ebb.  Big uplegs are inevitably followed by corrections.

With gold and gold stocks plunging hard Thursday morning, the timing of this research thread is certainly lucky.  My weekly-web-essay workflow is well-defined, this happens to be the 877th I’ve written.  I have to decide on each week’s topic by early Wednesdays, to do the research and build necessary spreadsheets and charts that day.  Then I write and proof these essays Thursdays, so they can be published early Fridays.

Even before this latest bout of selling erupted, the serious downside risks facing overbought gold stocks were readily apparent.  According to virtually every technical indicator out there, this sector was looking ever-more extreme in recent weeks.  The longer and farther gold stocks surged, the greater the odds for a selloff.  I warned about this Saturday morning in the conclusion to our latest monthly newsletter for subscribers.

Friday, September 06, 2019

Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.

Friday, September 06, 2019

Why College-Bound Students Consider Buying Gold Instead, Expect 3 Year Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Later in today’s program we’ll hear a fascinating interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial. Greg breaks down the recent move in silver, a move off of a breakout point he called spot on on this program a few weeks ago, and also gives us his thoughts on the pullback we saw on Thursday.

Greg also tells us at what price on the downside he expects will provide major support in both gold and silver if we do see a further pullback from here. So, don’t miss my interview with the man they call the Gold Guru, coming up after this week’s market update.

This week brought more big moves in precious metals markets. The biggest mover, no surprise, is silver.

Friday, September 06, 2019

Globalization Hits a Brick Wall Named Trump / Economics / Global Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

Until about 50 years ago, people paid attention to the area where they lived. They read local papers, shopped at local merchants, and socialized at local events.

Technology ended all that. Now we get our news from the internet. We buy imported goods. We converse on social media with friends thousands of miles away.

This “globalization” process changed the world, sometimes for the better but with significant side effects. Hence, today’s dissatisfaction.

Now, technology is swinging the pendulum back. Globalization is going in reverse. And again, the process will hurt some people.

Friday, September 06, 2019

Can Crude Oil Price Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels.  Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations.  The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.

Friday, September 06, 2019

China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"The Trade War is Over - And the winner is China" writes the clueless mainstream press just prior to the announcement of new Trump trade tariffs. This is part 2 of 2 of my latest analysis on the prospects of the Chinese stock market. (Part 1 - Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets). Note the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast.

Friday, September 06, 2019

The Stock Market Rally is Almost Over, Next Comes the Big Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

With this morning’s breakout, stocks (blue line) have finally moved to within spitting distance of their upside target as predicted by the credit markets (black line).

Friday, September 06, 2019

When Most Investors Believe Something, It’s Usually Wrong / InvestorEducation / Trader Psychology

By: Jared_Dillian

You have probably heard that $15 trillion of bonds are trading with negative yields. That’s 25% of all sovereign bonds outstanding.

Lots of people are furious about this—but it’s no use getting mad at the market.

Lots of people say it doesn’t make sense.

It makes sense to me, and to a few other people.

If you see something in the market that doesn’t make sense, it’s usually best to stay away, rather than picking a fight with it.

We’re not in uncharted territory here.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

The Great Gold and Silver Precious Metals Melt-Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund presents his dystopian view of the future. The distinguishing feature of fiat money systems is that they are licentious—they are created by corrupt politicians so that they can act without restraint by, for example, promising the citizens the earth in order to improve their chances of being re-elected. The population can pick up the tab later in the form of devalued money that buys them less. The current dollar fiat money system was created by then President Richard Nixon in 1971, hardly an edifying character, and, thinking about it, it was very apt that it was him who created it by getting rid of the gold standard.

It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes. What happens with fiat is that money becomes increasingly worthless at an accelerating rate until it enters the final terminal phase which is a hyperinflationary vortex that results in it becoming utterly worthless—and we are right on the doorstep of that phase now.

When the global financial crisis hit in 2008—2009 the world was at a crossroads—it is was the last chance to clean up the mess and get back to the straight and narrow. Cleaning up the mess would have involved letting the banks and brokerage houses that created it go bust, but those responsible for it didn't want to "face the music" and they had the political influence to make sure they didn't have to. So, society at large had to pick up the tab for their misdemeanors. They were bailed out at huge cost and the system put on life support in the form of massive fiat creation—quantitative easing—which enabled them to drop interest rates to zero to stop debt compounding and then use the cheap money to engage in an orgy of speculation, while the "little guy" continued to be charged usurious rates if he wanted to borrow any money.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

• Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

• And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

UK Surprise Decision to Thwart a No-Deal Brexit Changes Market Dynamics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world.  But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next.  With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside.  Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started / Companies / Self Driving Cars

By: Stephen_McBride

“Never get in cars with strangers…”

Did your parents tell you that when you were a kid?

These days, people get in cars with strangers all the time... only they use a smartphone “app” to match them with a specific stranger to drive them around.

As you may have guessed, I’m referring to Uber, the world’s biggest ride-sharing company.

It’s like a taxi company except it doesn’t own any cars. It doesn’t employ any drivers either. Instead, it runs an app that connects drivers with people who need a ride.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Will Fed Actions Create Dow 40,000 - And Triple Gold Prices? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Dan_Amerman

The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into "dovish" mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.

We've been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.

History does not exactly repeat itself - but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Brexit Incontinent Mendacity / Politics / BrExit

By: Raul_I_Meijer

No, I’m still not taking sides in the Brexit proceedings. I have no horse in that fight. As I’ve said 1000 times, I can fully imagine that a country might want to leave the trappings of the EU. But just as often I’ve said that the way the Tories have gone about leaving appears deeply flawed. They have never seemed to take serious the amount of effort required for a smooth exit.

And after being an EU member for 40+ years, that effort could only be gigantic. But not one moment during Theresa May’s ‘reign’, let alone under Boris, have I gotten the impression that the UK is ready. They’ve spent their time fighting amongst each other about the shape and form Brexit should take, but neglected the practical implications of changing 1000s of rules and regulations and treaties and laws.

And sure, maybe a lot of work was done in secret, can’t very well do nothing at all, but none of that would matter very much; you need to show that you’re ready, not merely suggest it. And from what I can gather from the latest numbers I’ve seen, expectations are still that 50-60% of trucks (lorries) will not have the required paperwork once the UK leaves.